la gente estÃ¡ muy loca wrote:
holy cow, alarum! hussman says risk of recession is "imminent likelihood!"
oh wait, that was in January 2016. at ease, gentlemen.
Agip, plus Ã§a change!!!
1/12/1995 The publisher of the Hussman Econometrics newsletter shed his bull outfit in late 1993 and now forecasts the bear market will "become particularly severe" by summer. He bases that on history: Bear markets tend to occur every four to five years, knocking down prices by 20 to 30 percent off their highs. He expects the Dow to fall below 3,000 by early 1996. ( Up over 30% a year later )
3/20/1995 With stock prices continuing to soar, let's check in with John Hussman of Hussman Econometrics, who turned bearish last year after several prosperous years as a bull.
He continues to expect the Dow to sink to 3,000 by early 1996. Among the culprits: the falling dollar and rising inflation.
Except for the weakest period -- 1965 -- all the years whose digits have ended in the number five have been banner years for stocks. But remember, those years began with unusually high dividend yields, averaging 4.7 percent. That's a far cry from the recent 2.75 percent yield on the S&P 500.
At that level, Hussman says stocks are no bargain. But then stock market bears have been saying that for about two years, during which the market has gained 9 percent.
9/12/1995 The publisher of Hussman Econometrics newsletter says that he expects a "sharp" initial bear market decline within the next 12 weeks.
Citing statistics he notes that there have only been five times during this century in which the market's total value relative to gross domestic value exceeded 75 percent. On each occasion the dividend yield of the S&P 500 was 3 percent or less, and stocks wound up underperforming Treasury bills for as long as 10 to 20 years. ( 10 year CAGR: VFINX was 10.03%; CASH was 3.76%. 20 year CAGR: VFINX was 8.90%; CASH was 2.50% )