Igy, mode is meaningless here. And the skew could be on either side, both, or neither. That's why a median value would be useful here. Everything else you wrote does nothing to prove to your point. Sorry.
Igy, mode is meaningless here. And the skew could be on either side, both, or neither. That's why a median value would be useful here. Everything else you wrote does nothing to prove to your point. Sorry.
POTO,
OK, I'll buy that, but...
Logic argues that if the market has tripled since 2009, the allocation to equity ownership has risen as well. One can argue that more Americans are not in stocks. Fine, that is not the point, those that are in, are not positioned for a downturn.
One can just review Wall Street recommended allocations to get an idea of where that data would lead. In my perusal of data tonight one investment firm had a conservative allocation with stocks at 31%. Another was recommending high dividend stocks as a bond proxy.
It is all an academic argument at this time. The coming downturn will prove once again that investors were far to optimistic in the face of falling earnings and stretched valuations.
Sorry.
Igy
Sigh. Sometimes your stubbornness does you a disservice. Have a good night.
U.S. stock futures on Wednesday pointed to a higher open as oil tried for $50 a barrel, putting the Dow on track to extend the previous day's 213-point rally.
S&P 500 futures gained 9.75 points, or 0.5%, to 2,084.75, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose by 79 points, or 0.5%, to 17,766. Nasdaq-100 futures tacked on 25.25 points, or 0.6%, to 4,470.50. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed 1.4% higher, while the Dow jumped by 1.2%, or 213.12 points, as a rally in financial and tech stocks underpinned a sharp and broad advance.
Analysts have been surprised by the gains. "I really am trying to get my head around the newfound euphoria," said David Buik, market commentor for Panmure Gordon & Co. "Yes, I get the learning to live with a 25 basis point U.S. Fed rate hike in June or July ... but I wonder!"
Oil futures traded higher, with West Texas Intermediate crude briefly rising as high as $49.45 a barrel, according to FactSet data. European stocks were advancing, while Asian markets mostly closed higher. Gold futures were losing ground, and the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was little changed.
How entirely appropriate that David Bunk of Manure Gordon & Co. should be euphoric at 1 day of low-volume bullshit.
He doesn't sound euphoric to me.
MarketWatching
High frequency traders have been giddy with the gains. "I really am trying to get my head around how many Muppets there are," said Igy, commenting on the manure being tossed at investors. "Yes, I get the learning to live with a 25 basis point U.S. Fed rate hike in June or July ... but I wonder how in the world they are going to make chicken salad out of this!"
...I am chuckling at my own comment....sorry....
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
MarketWatching
High frequency traders have been giddy with the gains. "I really am trying to get my head around how many Muppets there are," said Igy, commenting on the manure being tossed at investors. "Yes, I get the learning to live with a 25 basis point U.S. Fed rate hike in June or July ... but I wonder how in the world they are going to make chicken salad out of this!"
heh
well what do you know...more positive econ
int'l trade is taking off:
exports +1.8%
imports +2.3%
including industrial supplies +4.0%!
Mortgage apps rose, back to recent highs
House prices reaccelerating +6.1% y/y
but PMI services not doing great - growing but barely: 51.2
Well it took about a month, but AAPL is finally back above my buy in point. My other purchases in the last 60 days - WFC, KHC, NFLX - are also doing quite well. Earlier purchases do include some dogs that I'm hoping will come around. Anyway I'm glad I tuned out the Chicken Littles.
Big and agip,
Does not pay to be a Bear today. Reality remains that the market trades at a multiple beyond where it was in 2009. Those figures are on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. Good luck on any trades but you can't just levitate the market on hope.
Igy
treasury yield curve flattest since 2007. that's not good. And will get flatter next month if the fed raises rates
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T10Y2Y
but it's not flat: 0.93%
agip,
Interesting article on stagflation which I remember well as a young adult in the late 70s and early 80s.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/25/the-fed-could-be-blindsided-by-stagflation-commentary.html
Igy
"Most Central Bank watchers know that our Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of stable prices in the context of maximum unemployment."
I stopped reading right there. Maximum unemployment? Really? The author is a noob.
Tweet from John Hussman:
"Mommy, tell me again how Santa, Eastew Bunny and the Tooth Faiwy all pwomised valuations aw tied to bond yields."
He's lost it...jumped the shark.
Say,
The reference is to the Fed Model or Dividend Discount which hypothesizes that equities can sustain a higher PE multiple in a low interest rate environment. The theory which is accurate using data back to 1985, but not so much historically. It has been one of the more popular theories to support the current high PEs in the market. So, if the Fed is on a tightening cycle where does that leave us?
Igy
It's baby talk. How can anyone take him seriously?
Lemons,
Perhaps this Tweet from Hussman suits you better:
Don't confuse speculation with valuation. Both are important drivers of returns, but only valuation is durable. pic.twitter.com/V731RiJbv…
Igy
DB up 18% in around 6 weeks
but down 45% over 52 weeks