Looks like Chesapeake has pledged nearly all of their assets to maintain their credit facility with the banks.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/12/investing/chesapeake-energy-cash-crunch-stock-surge/
Igy
Looks like Chesapeake has pledged nearly all of their assets to maintain their credit facility with the banks.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/12/investing/chesapeake-energy-cash-crunch-stock-surge/
Igy
Big Dog Investments wrote:
I know tomorrow is another day, but so far it's been a good week for CHK. I expect Igy will continue to poo poo the company, but at the moment it's worth almost 3x what I paid for it less than two months ago. If only they were all like this!
I'm glad to see that you used common sense and didn't listen to the negative garbage around here. As before, I'd say set you stop a little below 3.50 and let 'er rip. Not the kind of stock I would want to buy, but if it's going up, it's going up!
SP500 now 2.6% from the all-time high from last May.
"I'm glad to see that you...didn't listen to the negative garbage around here."
I agree, you should only listen to the negative gems.
Same as you shouldn't listen to the positive garbage around here.
Once again, negative is positive. DJIA up around 175 at the moment!
Not to burst any bubbles here, but earnings are going down not up. That is not good for the stock market, regardless of what the chart Ouija boards say. Up moves in this market are bad, not good for long term investors, and only good for short term investors if they get out before it rolls over.
Roll the dice.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Not to burst any bubbles here, but earnings have gone down.
Igy
fixed your tense there, Igy
they won't go down forever
No, negative is not positive. Positive is positive. I/B/E/S had projected before earnings season that eps x-energy was going to be down 2.8%, and that is a very different number than has been banded around here. And the market is up because JPM's earnings weren't as bad as expected.
This is probably just the beginning, because earnings projections are an exercise in managing expectations. Companies do everything possible to reduce analyst projections, because, guess what, it's not about what the numbers are (they hope), it's "We beat." And they WILL beat, and the market will go up because they beat, then go down afterwards.
Do I care about any of this? No. I just want the number. I don't even read earnings report and I do not even look at non-GAAP numbers and have not for years. I only want the quantitative numbers from Capital IQ that I put in the cloud that sits 10 feet behind be at home, so I can do my own research.
fascinating little paper on one way to forecast returns. It uses one factor:
"the proportion of US wealth held by private investors in stocks using the Fed’s Z.1 report. The higher the proportion, the lower future returns will be.
There are two aspects of the intuition here, as I see it: the simple one is that when ordinary people are scared and have run from stocks, future returns tend to be higher (buy panic). When ordinary people are buying stocks with both hands, it is time to sell stocks to them, or even do IPOs to feed them catchy new overpriced stocks (sell greed)."
basically a way of not getting sucked up into a mania by measuring how much of peoples' money is in stocks. It's track record:
The formula explains more than 90% of the variation in return over a ten-year period.
Back in March of 2009, it estimated returns of 16%/year over the next ten years.
Back in March of 1999, it estimated returns of -2%/year over the next ten years.
At present, it forecasts returns of 6%/year, bouncing back from an estimate of around 4.7% one year ago.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Up moves in this market are bad
Oh.
Is it Opposite Day?
coach d, agip and Maserati,
What can be quantified is GAAP earnings are down 18.5% from the cycle high. JP Morgan earnings are down from a cycle high, and they are buying back stock at a record rate to beat a lowered hurdle. As coach d alluded to it is a narrative for those that want to believe the market moves higher.
I will stand with a century of facts. The market will follow earnings and the last time earnings were this low the market traded at 1,440. Earnings were $86.50 in 2015, multiply that by a reasonable multiple of 15 times gives you an S&P of 1,300. The S&P 500 is extremely overvalued by any reasonable metric.
We can continue to debate this and the market will give us the answer.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d, agip and Maserati,
What can be quantified is GAAP earnings are down 18.5% from the cycle high. JP Morgan earnings are down from a cycle high, and they are buying back stock at a record rate to beat a lowered hurdle. As coach d alluded to it is a narrative for those that want to believe the market moves higher.
I will stand with a century of facts. The market will follow earnings and the last time earnings were this low the market traded at 1,440. Earnings were $86.50 in 2015, multiply that by a reasonable multiple of 15 times gives you an S&P of 1,300. The S&P 500 is extremely overvalued by any reasonable metric.
We can continue to debate this and the market will give us the answer.
Igy
the market will indeed give us the answer, but I will say that since the market has had a PE of both 8 and 40 over the past 50 years...hard to see too direct a line betwixt earnings and stock market levels.
And anyway, usually the best time to buy is when earnings are low, not when they are high.
Money managers are increasing their cash holdings while fears of “quantitative failure†persist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's latest monthly fund manager survey found.
Note:
(1) They are not talking about QE/ZIRP ruining the economy or some silly notion along those lines. They are talking about risk that the Central Banks won't be able to keep doing what they've been doing to keep the world out of recession/depression.
(2) The big money sold huge amounts 4Q15, went into February with the highest cash levels in 15 years, bought stocks and commodities heavily in February, then dumped them. If you don't understand that the big money is timing the market, you need to be sent to mutual fund propaganda deprogramming.
agip,
It is not a good time to buy the market when the earnings are going down and the market is going up. Fools are buying here in my view.
Igy
+1
Agip, you need to read this
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/valuation-and-returns-adventures-in-curve-fitting/yeah, all my life I've been a sucker for data mining. it's cost me a fortune.
muy loca:
From the last paragraph of the article you posted:
"If we assume that the P/E multiple is not going to change going forward, then future returns, neglecting dividends, are going to be a function of the drivers of earnings growth: inflation rates, real GDP (sales) growth, and profit margin changes."
So, where does that leave us today?
Igy
What’s a day in the markets without hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve members who report to a dovish leader? Three Fed leaders—Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker—spoke around the country Tuesday in favor of putting the central bank back into the business of “continuing normalization,†as Harker called it. They all believe the U.S. economy is doing “quite well,†by Williams’s account. Said Harper, "The underlying trend in my view is unmistakable. This economy, despite all the headwinds we face ... we continue to move ahead." What does Yellen think again?
TDA,
The strategy is to continue to play good cop, bad cop in order to play both sides of the market. The Fed wants both stable equity and bond markets.
Igy