Very convenient starting point. I could just as easily say back test 25 years. Way more than bonds. Anyway my point was investing in the SP 500 and a sit back strategy is about long term. It's silly to tell someone "good luck" on their buy and hold strategy for the SP 500 based on your assumption that it might be lower later this year.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
TAA,
That is an assumption. Back test your return for 15 years, 4% is same as Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. So what?
Igy
Based on your posts I thought you worked for Wall Street. Apparently I was wrong. So who do you work for?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bogle,
First point, no Wall Street firm is saying the "sky is falling." Second point, do you realize that all those index funds are packaged and sold by Wall Street firms? Third point, there are clear and present risks in index funds in that they are being used as trading vehicles by institutions and hedge funds. The negatives have been foreshadowed in the "flash crash" and the 1.000 point Dow drop in August.
Good luck on your sit back strategy when we hit S&P 1,300 this year.
Igy
http://www.theguardian.com/bus...economists
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Bogle,
First point, no Wall Street firm is saying the "sky is falling."
Igy
didn't you count Vanguard as a wall street firm despite its not being a wall street firm? what's the difference here?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
RBS = Royal Bank of Scotland.
Igy
I picked a point that makes my point look good just like you did. Again it's foolish to tell someone "good luck" in a on a sit and hold strategy based on what the investment might do later this year, which was the point of my first reply, which you ignored in this reply. Have a good one.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
TAA,
You are within 10% of an all-time high in the S&P 500 after the index has tripled since 3/9/2009, and you accuse me of a convenient starting point. Furthermore, your 25 year time set includes two of the greatest bull runs in market history.
Igy
(1) I don't think you said exactly where you live except that you spend time in Europe. I can't see what you think would be "better" somewhere outside the US? I'm not American and I don't love the place, but personally (and I've travelled widely and currently reside, temporarily, in a Mediterranean country) I can't figure out what would make you wary about living stateside, assuming that's where you're from?
Maserati wrote:(1) ... I'm spending more and more time figuring out where to live.
(2) ... I got the overwhelming sense that there is something critical that everybody is overlooking, something seemingly trivial, but which will have a controlling and catastrophic effect--something like the power grid going down in the US, etc.