Ghost of Igloi wrote:
That is an assumption. Back test your return for 15 years, 4% is same as Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. So what?
Very convenient starting point. I could just as easily say back test 25 years. Way more than bonds. Anyway my point was investing in the SP 500 and a sit back strategy is about long term. It's silly to tell someone "good luck" on their buy and hold strategy for the SP 500 based on your assumption that it might be lower later this year.