You raise interesting issues. I asked you a while back (6 mos-1 yr?) how your strategy was working but you never responded, I thought you had disappeared.
You are beating the TSX, but still down. And is it correct to assume that your holdings are denominated in CAD? This to me is a failed strategy. The reason I asked you previously how you were doing was because I have some relatives invested up there, solely in Canadian equities and instruments, and they refused to diversify even when the writing was on the wall.
Nor would I ever invest in just US-based, USD-denominated entities and instruments.
As for me personally, I have a great deal of knowledge and experience, and I use essentially NONE of it in deciding in-market investment strategies. The only thing I use it for as far as the markets are concerned is to decide whether to be in, or out.
One of my backgrounds is in physics, the "hardest" of the "hard sciences". My stomach turns when I hear financial people describing some things as "scientific". Yes I learned that there are mellower "scientific" investigations as well, when I was doing medical research, but the financial stuff is beyond the pale. I KNOW that they are all full of absolute carp, from a "scientific" perspective.
I have tried to be a student of psychology, sociology, culture, and human behavior, both at the individual, group, and aggregate levels, and of how those factors can be, and are, managed by institutions, business, and governments. This led me to a career in law, and let me tell you, after real science, that was an incredible eye-opener.
I had worked for the gov't previously and studied organizational behavior, but seeing stuff from a legal perspective is a whole new ballgame, especially if you worm yourself into an insider position on an issue that is getting a lot of public and political attention. To see things from the inside is a revelation. It is equally frustrating because I can never communicate most of it without breaking privilege, and therefore have become part of a small group of castaways on a small island.
These various experiences have led me to the conclusion that of critical importance to "investing" is the idea of CONTROL. People who really make money have it, the rest of us don't. I pick my investments and activities with a huge eye toward control, both physical, and decision-making, and it has worked out very well, but requires work.
For the little guy, control over market investments seems to me to be eroding--getting the right price for things is difficult, and there are large forces at work that can swamp you--that is why little guys tend to throw any idea of control out the window, like Flagpole, and just go along for the ride. And NO, selecting what is in your basket and periodically shuffling it is NOT any significant degree of control.
Fair enough, but be realistic, and understand what you are getting into. Remember that maxim that you shouldn't put money into the market that you can't afford to lose, it has some truth.
So I don't use my knowledge or experience to play the markets, I use it to stay out when the BS meter goes off the charts. IMO the 30+% year was super-high on the BS meter, and I got out. Public unfunded liabilities in the US are off the charts on the BS meter, and I'm not in any associated bonds. The facts that an average POS Canadian house in nowheresville costs half a million bucks and that most people in Canada are on the dole via either old age, UI, disability, or direct government employment, and that vertical integration disappeared a long time ago in Canada, are ultra-high on the BS meter--early in 2014 I divested of all Canadian holdings.
I have since invested in what I know, and what I can control somewhat--building projects, art, private money lending, antiquities, and other things. Things for re-sale are very, very targeted, with committed buyers before I even make a move. Information and access are key points of control. Money lending control is achieved at low cost through careful selection of clients and intimate knowledge of systems of legal recourse. Building projects have defined end-dates, and are sold, not held.
Good luck, to all. Yes, I would like to get back in the market, but I don't see it on the horizon. Yes, I have beaten the markets, but it has taken a great deal more work than merely staying in the markets would have taken. Just being in the equity and bond markets is NOT significant diversification, no matter what anyone tells you. No matter what you know, know that you know nothing about the markets. Even those in the markets who make a killing do so in a very narrow range, because of something narrow that they know about and develop a mechanism to control to some extent.