end of an era, boys
sounds like they'll try to raise rates 3-4 times per year - hardly bad for stocks, although with the strangeness in interest rates who knows.
end of an era, boys
sounds like they'll try to raise rates 3-4 times per year - hardly bad for stocks, although with the strangeness in interest rates who knows.
agip wrote:
end of an era, boys
sounds like they'll try to raise rates 3-4 times per year - hardly bad for stocks, although with the strangeness in interest rates who knows.
And the Dawn of the New. They're going full allotment on overnight reverse repo "Taking these factors into account, the Desk anticipates that around $2 trillion of Treasury securities will be available for ON RRP operations to fulfill the FOMC’s domestic policy directive."
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_151216Recommend reading :
https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?sourceid=em&document_id=x654083&serialid=2TXEgOGercjFbPp2zWo1mAcl0LF%2fhzlqIWMsoyTFCE4%3dhttp://www.perrymehrling.com/2015/09/turbulent-exit/https://doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&document_id=1048167391&source_id=emcmt&serialid=ePoMbkNQvD3cFmVQrLOs4jfqJq7gis35qeTDtiLMZzk%3dhttp://www.perrymehrling.com/2015/05/exit-strategy-part-one-zirp/I said before on this board that "real" inflation was significantly higher than the officially measured rate, and I stick by that assessment. However, Yellen seemed to me to indicate that she was just another puppet of the current Democratic administration.
If they can't fudge the inflation number sufficiently, they will then manufacture inflation, via either forced-spending policies like Obamacare, other taxes, and minimum wage, via downward manipulation of the dollar, or via direct market intervention in things like commodities...or likely some subtle combination of all 3.
Believe it. The imperative is that the Obama administration come off looking good, to both end on a high note and pave the way for the next Dem administration. Nothing else matters.
I make no moral judgment, just an observation.
What will really matter in the short- and medium-term will be whether or not people will buy into the fantasy. If they do, my prediction is that everything will be fine through at least the first half of a new Dem administration...that means 3 more years of gains. If they don't, things will really slow down, and not even their massive interventions will make enough of a difference; in fact, their interventions will not only not have their intended effects, they will actually have the OPPOSITES of their intended effects.
My bet is that, as long as the US and capitalism in general wield sufficient moral authority globally, this policy direction will be a "success" over the next 3 years. Insanely, I also believe that this will result in the election of Clinton to the WH, unless some Republican can really mobilize the electorate.
So there it is. I think things will cruise along just fine until near the election, when they will become choppy; if the Dems win, it will be business-as-usual for the following 2 years; if the Reps win, all bets are off until they can begin to enact and effect new policies and undo the old, so there will be a period of turbulence for 6 months-1 year.
Bill Gross in particular seemed almost incredulous at what he perceived as Yellen's detachment from "reality". In truth, it is Gross who is detached from reality, as Yellen has just described it. People are followers; the fed creates reality as much as anyone, and can even change the definitions of words to make their narrative essentially unassailable.
If things head south between now and the election, it will be an unequivocal signal that the US has lost credibility on the world stage, because disbelievers will then be controlling, by one mechanism or another.
There can no longer be any reasonable doubt that the fix is in, and that it has been for some time now. The thing to watch in the short term will be whether people will be willing to swallow the new double dose of bullsh*t, and for how long, and this depends on how effective the current administration's mechanisms of control will be, both domestically and abroad.
What's with all these "the numbers are fudged" conspiracy theorists? Where's the proof?
Say wha? wrote:
What's with all these "the numbers are fudged" conspiracy theorists? Where's the proof?
It's a way of life. It makes you feel smart.
I'm in Seattle fixing my inlaws internet after my Father in Law (84 years old) screwed everything up trying to set up a numerically controlled (computer) milling machine in his garage (no, I'm not kidding about a 84-year-old guy setting up a computer controlled milling machine--that's what us engineers do for relaxation!), which brought down the whole internet. So I've been dark for a few days.
I'm still flat all commodities except oil (which I did not offset for obvious reasons) and the Euro FX which I went short today. Might be too early, but we'll see. Also went long AMZN and V today on the FED announcement. If you go to Morningstar and look up the top holdings and returns of Morgan Stanley Institutional Opportunity, you might understand why I did that.
I may be dark for a few days again as I have other things to do this week.
Igy, I don't have a FANG, just a FAN.
coach d,
Good luck with the father-in-law. My wife and I were caregivers for her 90+ year old WW II vet, one day he broke an irrigation supply line. He was planting a tomato using a pickaxe to dig the hole.
If I am correct the Morgan Stanley fund you highlighted is managed by Dennis Lynch. Lynch had the top performing mutual fund in 2014. He uses very concentrated positions with the top 5 positions often one third of the portfolio. Obviously a lot of downside risk when the market turns down.
Best wishes for your FAN, but not a FAN-boy.
Igy
[quote]agip wrote:
end of an era, boys
sounds like they'll try to raise rates 3-4 times per year -
Who said this?
Hi, K5!
K5 detector wrote:
Hi, K5!
R U autistic?
Nope. R U a bigot?
So when's that crash gonna happen?
[quote]K5 detector wrote:
Nope. R U a bigot?
Is it bigotry to oppose a violent, racist, colonial settler state in the ME that extorts our congress for billions of dollars? If yes, count me in
So when's that crash gonna happen?[/quote
It's already happened twice since 2000 .
Oh. You mean the next one. It's coming. And you will know when it hits. I can't wait to see your claims of how you bailed out just before it hit. Made after it's happened, of course. That's how you roll.
Those claims sound like the same ones you made at the beginning of this thread. Made after it happened, of course.
At least you admitted your bigotry. That's the first step in getting the help you need.
K5 detector wrote:
Those claims sound like the same ones you made at the beginning of this thread. Made after it happened, of course.
At least you admitted your bigotry. That's the first step in getting the help you need.
You may be the dumbest poster on Letsrun. No mean accomplishment. In order to get away with such blatant dishonesty, one would need to have some smarts.
K5 detector wrote:
Those claims sound like the same ones you made at the beginning of this thread. Made after it happened, of course.
At least you admitted your bigotry. That's the first step in getting the help you need.
You call those who oppose bigotry, bigots.
Those who are honest, dishonest.
There is a word for folks like you. Actually two words. Zi*nist dupe.
"wage pressures" = elected bodies continuing to cave to the demands of unions, whose salaries are often tied to, guess what...the minimum wage. Although unions are falling out of favor in the private sector with the rise of the right-to-work states, governments are doing everything they can to bloat their payrolls, and that will produce "wage pressures", along with the minimum wage increases. This will either drive business elsewhere, or will drive money elsewhere, both meaning capital spending in the short term.
Dollar continues to rise today against, e.g., China & Argentina, not necessarily because of anything the US is doing. You will see this reverse, but IMO the strong dollar is the real problem for the Fed, because it is a sticky wicket. Already the talk is all about M&A.
Obama will do everything he can to drive energy producers into the ground, with legislation effectively against coal, oil, and even gas. Some are already being shuttered, and the prices of these things will then naturally rise. Voila, "inflation". It's not just energy, it's everything--they will just drive the cost of doing business ever higher. "Inflation."
As I predicted, the CAD continues to fall, now down to .7162
You should still be shorting it.
Also, consider health care and pharma. Tons of boomers will be retiring, and they all have problems from the STD's they contracted in the free love days...and those who don't, have other problems.
This emotionally- and developmentally-stunted generation will increasingly look for the quick and easy solution to their problem, especially one that permits them to externalize the problem, thereby not requiring any changes in philosophy or behavior.
Just how much of the accumulated boomer wealth will flow into health care and pharma? TONS. A significant fraction, IMO. They live by inane mantras like "You only go around once", and "You can't take it with you". When the time will be right to buy, look to health care, pharma, whoever profits from reverse mortgages, retirement communities/managed care facilities, medical device manufacturers, and consumer staples like toilet paper and adult diapers.
Is there a geriatric fund out there?
Meantime, continue to short the CAD. Also load up on diesel if you have a farm. And look for sleeper RE pockets for convertible rental property.
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
do you ...try to hang on just a bit longer, or hold?
Dummier wrote:
What's the difference between hanging on and holding?
Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:
Not much difference, I'd say. What's that got to do with what I wrote?
Dummier wrote:
Really?
Yes, really.
Meanwhile Maserati shows his true colors. Why am I not surprised?
another in my continuing list of predictions for 2016 and how they went.
Bill Gross, predicting 2016: When the year is done, there will be minus signs in front of returns for many asset classes," Gross, 70, wrote in the outlook. "The good times are over."
I have to give Bill credit for being right on this one. Almost everything is down this year. Not much down, but definitely most have negative signs.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
The bad news is that Bill Gross' fund, JUCTX, has done very poorly, despite Bill's accurate prediction. For the year it is down 2.21% while the Vanguard total bond market index is up 0.31%.
Shows that talk is cheap - making money off it is hard.
Which is where Coach D seems to do a good job.