SP500 dips below 2000 briefly today, now on its way back up, at 2003. Still in that 2000-2100 range.
To those who say you can't "predict", I say bullcrap. I have successfully avoided the big drops since I started investing. Recently I also avoided the correction.
I have been open about having left the market back at something like 16.5k, and I'm still not back in, in any meaningful way. I will not re-enter until after the next big drop. I won't even seek great deals at the bottom of the drop.
Of course, I have needed to participate in "other" investments to still realize some gain, and I will say it again: that has been WORK. WAY MORE WORK than the essentially passive investing I do when I am in the market.
WORK, or rather the lack thereof required to participate these days, is why the markets will endure. 401k's take essentially no work. Pension plan participants do no work at all. All sorts of wealth is in the markets, and it won't readily leave.
Heck, look at some of the posters here. They actually aren't bothered by stagnation or even significant drops, because they are "long".
I ask again: what else are people going to do with their "money"? Those who really don't have any, spend it. Those who have some "extra", what is the alternative to the markets, that requires so little work? Answer: nothing. So you can forget about capital outflows from the everyman, and that leaves the markets with a core of inertia.
Even all the gurus are working to stem capital outflows by repeating the mantra that we just have to adjust our expectations, that we are in a new era. IMO, it's working, at least as far as I can tell from discussions I have with "normal people", and even as far as I can tell from some that I have with significant investors.
I'm with all those who are currently interested most in so-called "capital preservation", and I will not be one of those who helps to bring the market back onto its feet. Yes I will miss out on some gains, but I will compensate with other gains, that require more work to achieve, but that are less risky, less speculative. If and when I do get back in, it will be as a so-called "dividend investor", and like before, I will only sell if I see trouble on the horizon.
But this idea that you can't predict major market events is bunk--the real point is how accurately and precisely you can predict both the magnitude and timing, and how well your alternative investing/business strategy addresses those deficiencies and issues, considering your capabilities and desires.
"Normal" people simply don't have alternatives. The uber-rich always have alternatives, but get other people to do their work for them, because "they can afford it". Those of us in the middle are in a tough spot, where the decisions are harder to pin down.
So far, for this cycle, I have been accurate, if not particularly precise. My choice of what to do as an alternative has made good use of my accuracy, and my ability and willingness to work my skill set compensates for my lack of precision.
That's all there is to it. No magic. No heroic self-image. No delusion. No b.s. Yes I still depend on all sorts of social infrastructure, from utilities to the monetary system, but in the real world, only the insane (and those for whom it is a trivial diversion) try to prepare for complete calamity and anarchy.
But this idea that you can't use your mind to understand the world around you, as it relates to your personal situation, is complete rubbish.
I guess you first must know yourself, because you have to be able to make actual decisions upon which you know you can, and will, act. I suppose the less mature posters on this thread will have less such capability, and that is to be expected.