The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland provides daily “nowcasts” of inflation for two popular price indexes, the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These nowcasts give a...
yeah this is true. government employment is rising fast. not great. But I think the rise is mostly at state and local level...federal hiring is not changing much. I think.
Graph and download economic data for All Employees, Government/All Employees, Total Nonfarm from Jan 1939 to Mar 2024 about establishment survey, government, employment, USA, payrolls, headline figure, and nonfarm.
Graph and download economic data for All Employees, Government from Jan 1939 to Mar 2024 about establishment survey, government, employment, USA, payrolls, headline figure, and nonfarm.
yeah this is true. government employment is rising fast. not great. But I think the rise is mostly at state and local level...federal hiring is not changing much. I think.
And here you go--you are all arguing government stats. U1-U6, do you know what they mean and how they are calculated? Really, all those part-time private sector jobs, you think they're equivalent to full-time government jobs? GDP, you think that's real? Hedonics, OER, etc?
agip why go back just a brief period? We are coming off the longest period of impossibly-low rates in history, where money has been essentially free. I reject any analysis based solely upon the tiny last epoch, and the use of lagging indicators.
Loose monetary policy has led to massive asset price inflation, that is where the money went...and to banks, who plow it into derivatives. Houses, stocks, bonds, art, jewelry, you name it. Total market distortion and manipulation.
Do you even know how many times the "stocks" you think you own have been re-hypothecated?
Most of the markets' annual performance can be reduced to a handful of days up, and a handful of days down. Those significant days come when policy announcements are made, or confirmed. Government statistics, themselves the result of policy, are an essential part of the circular process. It goes nowhere but down, because friction takes its toll.
I just have to LMAO when I hear hot 20-yr-old talking heads discussing "business", ie Tesla's business in AI and China, Intel's customer base, Novo's legal strategy, etc. First of all, these people know nothing about a particular business' business practices--and second, those practices hardly matter. They are not dominant factors. Execs are expected to re-hash the same old garbage, and to say essentially nothing of substance.
Accounting rules are changed, environmental rules are changed, compensation rules are changed, disclosure rules are changed, sanction rules are changed, etc etc etc etc. The business of America is compliance. Consolidation will continue, the small will get crushed. Heck, the small can't even afford compliance at this point.
Liquidity? Do you claim to know the levels and qualities of all the liquidity out there? Nobody knows. Nobody. They just know it's a lot, and they know from where and when it comes. It's almost like substance doesn't matter at all, what matters is flow, throughput, velocity of liquidity.
Equity prices are an abstraction, mere tokens in a game with its own rules and standards, and having little to nothing to do with the underlying material of which they're made. Discussing any business putatively represented by an equity is like discussing the thermoplastic of which Vegas casino chips are made: almost completely irrelevant, unless they are being used as a smokescreen or in a diversionary manner.
It's funny when you think about how much time you may have left, and what matters, and what doesn't. Some people arrive at the point where life's too short for bs, and they excuse themselves from the table. I am almost there, but I keep getting roped back in because I am not a complete isolationist...but the Kool-Aid is starting to taste bitter, and the experience boring.
All sorts of options on the table at this point, and Cayman is looking better every day. Now that I am paying attention again, I am feeling the walls really start to close in. To me, the difference between when I left and now is dramatic, and huge--and terrifying.
Does anybody know how dividends are paid to those holding physical paper stock certificates? And how notification is made to the company of a transfer of ownership?
Has anyone ever tried it? Does anyone actually have any, or has anyone ever tried to actually get any?
And here you go--you are all arguing government stats. U1-U6, do you know what they mean and how they are calculated? Really, all those part-time private sector jobs, you think they're equivalent to full-time government jobs? GDP, you think that's real? Hedonics, OER, etc?
agip why go back just a brief period? We are coming off the longest period of impossibly-low rates in history, where money has been essentially free. I reject any analysis based solely upon the tiny last epoch, and the use of lagging indicators.
Loose monetary policy has led to massive asset price inflation, that is where the money went...and to banks, who plow it into derivatives. Houses, stocks, bonds, art, jewelry, you name it. Total market distortion and manipulation.
Do you even know how many times the "stocks" you think you own have been re-hypothecated?
Most of the markets' annual performance can be reduced to a handful of days up, and a handful of days down. Those significant days come when policy announcements are made, or confirmed. Government statistics, themselves the result of policy, are an essential part of the circular process. It goes nowhere but down, because friction takes its toll.
I just have to LMAO when I hear hot 20-yr-old talking heads discussing "business", ie Tesla's business in AI and China, Intel's customer base, Novo's legal strategy, etc. First of all, these people know nothing about a particular business' business practices--and second, those practices hardly matter. They are not dominant factors. Execs are expected to re-hash the same old garbage, and to say essentially nothing of substance.
Accounting rules are changed, environmental rules are changed, compensation rules are changed, disclosure rules are changed, sanction rules are changed, etc etc etc etc. The business of America is compliance. Consolidation will continue, the small will get crushed. Heck, the small can't even afford compliance at this point.
Liquidity? Do you claim to know the levels and qualities of all the liquidity out there? Nobody knows. Nobody. They just know it's a lot, and they know from where and when it comes. It's almost like substance doesn't matter at all, what matters is flow, throughput, velocity of liquidity.
Equity prices are an abstraction, mere tokens in a game with its own rules and standards, and having little to nothing to do with the underlying material of which they're made. Discussing any business putatively represented by an equity is like discussing the thermoplastic of which Vegas casino chips are made: almost completely irrelevant, unless they are being used as a smokescreen or in a diversionary manner.
It's funny when you think about how much time you may have left, and what matters, and what doesn't. Some people arrive at the point where life's too short for bs, and they excuse themselves from the table. I am almost there, but I keep getting roped back in because I am not a complete isolationist...but the Kool-Aid is starting to taste bitter, and the experience boring.
All sorts of options on the table at this point, and Cayman is looking better every day. Now that I am paying attention again, I am feeling the walls really start to close in. To me, the difference between when I left and now is dramatic, and huge--and terrifying.
You've got me so terrified I don't know what to do.
Does anybody know how dividends are paid to those holding physical paper stock certificates? And how notification is made to the company of a transfer of ownership?
Has anyone ever tried it? Does anyone actually have any, or has anyone ever tried to actually get any?
Does this help?
If cash dividends are issued for a security where you physically hold a certificate, the issuer or its transfer agent will send a check for the dividend payment directly to you or directly deposit it in your bank account, depending on your instructions. You are responsible for safeguarding your physical certificate.
Does anybody know how dividends are paid to those holding physical paper stock certificates? And how notification is made to the company of a transfer of ownership?
Has anyone ever tried it? Does anyone actually have any, or has anyone ever tried to actually get any?
Does this help?
If cash dividends are issued for a security where you physically hold a certificate, the issuer or its transfer agent will send a check for the dividend payment directly to you or directly deposit it in your bank account, depending on your instructions. You are responsible for safeguarding your physical certificate.
If so, you can call the company directly to get the transfer agent's contact information. In order to cash in the stock, you need to fill out the transfer form on the back of the certificate and have it notarized. Once complete, send the notarized certificate to the transfer agent, who will register the stock to you as owner.
Yes Sally that is how it works, generally. I recently ran into this while helping a nonagenarian with some things, when I found a banker's box full of GE, IBM, etc stock certificates from a long time ago. As far as she knew she had always received payments, but in fact they had stopped when one bank was bought by another and the account information was not transferred. The amounts are rather, how should I say, large. Everything needs to be ironed out before they are transferred to her progeny, those lucky bums.
What a wonderful echo of a really bygone era.
All yields now apparently down except for the 30yr, we'll see what the "market" has to say about that going forward. A delicate situation to try to divine.
OK so what about "sell in May and go away"? I so hope for a drawdown, I would btfd in a heartbeat. I have no interest at this point in being long anything, but would snap stuff up on the cheap, if possible. Down 25% would be nice, thank-you.
And as far as being terrified, I'm talking large-scale confiscation of wealth. I am not American, but live here, and have for 25 years. My parents were penniless war refugees. I have not taken one cent of support of any kind, ever, other than having cashed the stimulus/covid checks, to the extent that we got any, I can't even remember. I have no outstanding debts to the government, or to anyone else. I WILL NOT have my hard-earned money transferred to those who have lived a life of neglect, profligacy, irresponsibility, and zealotry. I have refrained from all of those, and built a nice life, and there's no way I will see the fruits of my labors taken, on a large scale. Ongoing taxes and inflation are enough, thank-you.
The estate exemption will reset to 6 million, and now they're talking about cap gains changes including rates and levies on unrealized gains, along with elimination of step-up in basis, and possible inclusion of trust assets and insurance policies in estate calculations. You know, you try to arrange your affairs to your family's best advantage, and they can (and will) just come along and pull the rug, because increasingly, the US govt shoots first and asks questions later. They no longer care if their actions are unconstitutional, they just consider the ensuing challenges an inconvenient but necessary part of the process of covering society with a crushing glacier of redistribution. All those things, btw, are pure government policy, how they govern your disposition of assets.
Think of how old you are now, then think about how much time you have left--let's arbitrarily say you are 60 and you think you have 25 years left. Think about what the world was like 25 years ago, in 1999, and how much the US has changed in that time. And the pace of change has been accelerating. Imagine if 20 years hence there will be the same amount of change, and today will look like some sort of nostalgic memory. It is amazing how much and how quickly things can change for the "worse". And policy creep has become a torrent, as governments take things and run with them. We are even seeing acceleration in de-dollarization, and the wane of successful US influence. Blinken has been begging Xi and others to keep buying some treasuries. In 20-25 years, everything could be different, what you now consider bedrock foundations could be mere memories.
As I will age and no doubt lose capacity, both physical and mental, I don't want to be caught in a complex web that is too difficult for me to figure out, or to navigate. Heck, just trying to get some health services and insurance disclosure these days is insane, and yes I have insurance and no there is nothing wrong with me personally. How the heck could anybody successfully manage their own semi-sophisticated tax filings at age 80, or 85? Or even control their use of language successfully? Etc.
People need to be taking more control of their lives, and taking it now, to the extent that they can. We are at a tipping-point, in the coming years you will fall into one of two baskets, if you stay in the US. And it's difficult to find other not-unreasonable jurisdictions. Cayman, Bahamas, Panama, Switzerland are all on the table, and secondary possibilities include Croatia, Portugal, Hungary, and...Thailand. But there is no utopia, one pick's one's poison.
To see what people let slide between the ages of 60 and 90 is incredible, even if they are normally competent and put forth their best efforts. Nobody can stay on top of it all, and even if they try, their best efforts might be undermined by greater powers.
I consider myself fortunate to be aware of this, to have the opportunities that I have, and to have the (not absolute) freedom to act. Just lucky timing, combined with some unlucky entanglements.
And here you go--you are all arguing government stats. U1-U6, do you know what they mean and how they are calculated? Really, all those part-time private sector jobs, you think they're equivalent to full-time government jobs? GDP, you think that's real? Hedonics, OER, etc?
agip why go back just a brief period? We are coming off the longest period of impossibly-low rates in history, where money has been essentially free. I reject any analysis based solely upon the tiny last epoch, and the use of lagging indicators.
Loose monetary policy has led to massive asset price inflation, that is where the money went...and to banks, who plow it into derivatives. Houses, stocks, bonds, art, jewelry, you name it. Total market distortion and manipulation.
Do you even know how many times the "stocks" you think you own have been re-hypothecated?
Most of the markets' annual performance can be reduced to a handful of days up, and a handful of days down. Those significant days come when policy announcements are made, or confirmed. Government statistics, themselves the result of policy, are an essential part of the circular process. It goes nowhere but down, because friction takes its toll.
I just have to LMAO when I hear hot 20-yr-old talking heads discussing "business", ie Tesla's business in AI and China, Intel's customer base, Novo's legal strategy, etc. First of all, these people know nothing about a particular business' business practices--and second, those practices hardly matter. They are not dominant factors. Execs are expected to re-hash the same old garbage, and to say essentially nothing of substance.
Accounting rules are changed, environmental rules are changed, compensation rules are changed, disclosure rules are changed, sanction rules are changed, etc etc etc etc. The business of America is compliance. Consolidation will continue, the small will get crushed. Heck, the small can't even afford compliance at this point.
Liquidity? Do you claim to know the levels and qualities of all the liquidity out there? Nobody knows. Nobody. They just know it's a lot, and they know from where and when it comes. It's almost like substance doesn't matter at all, what matters is flow, throughput, velocity of liquidity.
Equity prices are an abstraction, mere tokens in a game with its own rules and standards, and having little to nothing to do with the underlying material of which they're made. Discussing any business putatively represented by an equity is like discussing the thermoplastic of which Vegas casino chips are made: almost completely irrelevant, unless they are being used as a smokescreen or in a diversionary manner.
It's funny when you think about how much time you may have left, and what matters, and what doesn't. Some people arrive at the point where life's too short for bs, and they excuse themselves from the table. I am almost there, but I keep getting roped back in because I am not a complete isolationist...but the Kool-Aid is starting to taste bitter, and the experience boring.
All sorts of options on the table at this point, and Cayman is looking better every day. Now that I am paying attention again, I am feeling the walls really start to close in. To me, the difference between when I left and now is dramatic, and huge--and terrifying.
well I'm not sure where you are going with this other than a wistful 'stop the world I want to get off' sort of complaint.
I will say that being over 60 or so can be a hindrance to investing because investors of that age got to know and understand and sync with the world 20-30 years prior and the new investing regime/world/economy always seems weird and not right. So older investors will toss up their hands and say 'this is crazy I want no part of it and it can't be good.'
I think Igy falls to this sometimes. I know I do. Not Seattle, to his credit.
Investing is both the triumph of the optimists and the understanding that knowledge and smarts doesn't make you a better investor.
Frustrating, but there it is.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
yeah this is true. government employment is rising fast. not great. But I think the rise is mostly at state and local level...federal hiring is not changing much. I think.
You are not accounting for all the “businesses” dependent upon government largesse, like NGOs, military industrial complex, state governments dependent on Federal funds, to name a few.
There is a reason the deficit is growing $1 Trillion every 100 days.
And here you go--you are all arguing government stats. U1-U6, do you know what they mean and how they are calculated? Really, all those part-time private sector jobs, you think they're equivalent to full-time government jobs? GDP, you think that's real? Hedonics, OER, etc?
agip why go back just a brief period? We are coming off the longest period of impossibly-low rates in history, where money has been essentially free. I reject any analysis based solely upon the tiny last epoch, and the use of lagging indicators.
Loose monetary policy has led to massive asset price inflation, that is where the money went...and to banks, who plow it into derivatives. Houses, stocks, bonds, art, jewelry, you name it. Total market distortion and manipulation.
Do you even know how many times the "stocks" you think you own have been re-hypothecated?
Most of the markets' annual performance can be reduced to a handful of days up, and a handful of days down. Those significant days come when policy announcements are made, or confirmed. Government statistics, themselves the result of policy, are an essential part of the circular process. It goes nowhere but down, because friction takes its toll.
I just have to LMAO when I hear hot 20-yr-old talking heads discussing "business", ie Tesla's business in AI and China, Intel's customer base, Novo's legal strategy, etc. First of all, these people know nothing about a particular business' business practices--and second, those practices hardly matter. They are not dominant factors. Execs are expected to re-hash the same old garbage, and to say essentially nothing of substance.
Accounting rules are changed, environmental rules are changed, compensation rules are changed, disclosure rules are changed, sanction rules are changed, etc etc etc etc. The business of America is compliance. Consolidation will continue, the small will get crushed. Heck, the small can't even afford compliance at this point.
Liquidity? Do you claim to know the levels and qualities of all the liquidity out there? Nobody knows. Nobody. They just know it's a lot, and they know from where and when it comes. It's almost like substance doesn't matter at all, what matters is flow, throughput, velocity of liquidity.
Equity prices are an abstraction, mere tokens in a game with its own rules and standards, and having little to nothing to do with the underlying material of which they're made. Discussing any business putatively represented by an equity is like discussing the thermoplastic of which Vegas casino chips are made: almost completely irrelevant, unless they are being used as a smokescreen or in a diversionary manner.
It's funny when you think about how much time you may have left, and what matters, and what doesn't. Some people arrive at the point where life's too short for bs, and they excuse themselves from the table. I am almost there, but I keep getting roped back in because I am not a complete isolationist...but the Kool-Aid is starting to taste bitter, and the experience boring.
All sorts of options on the table at this point, and Cayman is looking better every day. Now that I am paying attention again, I am feeling the walls really start to close in. To me, the difference between when I left and now is dramatic, and huge--and terrifying.
well I'm not sure where you are going with this other than a wistful 'stop the world I want to get off' sort of complaint.
I will say that being over 60 or so can be a hindrance to investing because investors of that age got to know and understand and sync with the world 20-30 years prior and the new investing regime/world/economy always seems weird and not right. So older investors will toss up their hands and say 'this is crazy I want no part of it and it can't be good.'
I think Igy falls to this sometimes. I know I do. Not Seattle, to his credit.
Investing is both the triumph of the optimists and the understanding that knowledge and smarts doesn't make you a better investor.
Frustrating, but there it is.
Lib thing that government has all the answers. Increasingly driven by social agendas, that unfortunately run counter to human nature; meritocracy is white privilege, and other such nonsense.
well I'm not sure where you are going with this other than a wistful 'stop the world I want to get off' sort of complaint.
I will say that being over 60 or so can be a hindrance to investing because investors of that age got to know and understand and sync with the world 20-30 years prior and the new investing regime/world/economy always seems weird and not right. So older investors will toss up their hands and say 'this is crazy I want no part of it and it can't be good.'
I think Igy falls to this sometimes. I know I do. Not Seattle, to his credit.
Investing is both the triumph of the optimists and the understanding that knowledge and smarts doesn't make you a better investor.
Frustrating, but there it is.
Lib thing that government has all the answers. Increasingly driven by social agendas, that unfortunately run counter to human nature; meritocracy is white privilege, and other such nonsense.
one other thing that helps in being a good investor: keeping political views from influencing our investment strategy!
Lib thing that government has all the answers. Increasingly driven by social agendas, that unfortunately run counter to human nature; meritocracy is white privilege, and other such nonsense.
one other thing that helps in being a good investor: keeping political views from influencing our investment strategy!
“Yes Sally that is how it works, generally. I recently ran into this while helping a nonagenarian with some things, when I found a banker's box full of GE, IBM, etc stock certificates from a long time ago. As far as she knew she had always received payments, but in fact they had stopped when one bank was bought by another and the account information was not transferred. The amounts are rather, how should I say, large. Everything needs to be ironed out before they are transferred to her progeny, those lucky bums.
What a wonderful echo of a really bygone era.”
I dealt with similar work a dozen times when I was an advisor. I encouraged clients to send letters to transfer agents when settling estates for elderly stock investors, looking for missed reorganization or stock splits. I had a client I referred to as the “absent minded millionaire” that had hundreds of thousands of dollars improperly titled with transfer agents. Deceased parents, UTMA/UGMA accounts, wrong social security number, etc. When the problem is really messed up it can take sometime to iron out. One a deceased conservator account was never properly retitled.
Also, I should add, that if it goes on long enough, the assets will get escheated to the governing state. Further along become the property of the state. Therefore I also advised those settling estates to look for lost property in states where deceased had been a resident.
Get Your EMF Protection Devices at https://boncharge.com/jp Use Code "JP" for 15% Off!Get your Freedom Merch Here - https://awakenwithjp.com/collections/allU...
Apple earnings were good enough to ignite after hours trading.
It seems the revenues from their services division is a bright spot (App Store, Apple Pay, and subscription services like Apple TV+ and Apple Music..). Also much anticipated rather large stock buyback announcement.
Currently up about 6% in after hours for a 8.5% rise on the day.
Should boost the whole sector tomorrow.
Nice to see this laggard of the Mag 7 get a little boost here.
