remember how wrong markets have been about rate cuts. A year ago markets expected many many rate cuts in 2023 and 2024. We may get zero.
Bob Elliott @BobEUnlimited Hike in May, then 3 cuts in '23. Either 5 or 6 cuts in '24. UE rate at secular lows. Real growth at 2.5% last 3m. Inflation running at 5%. Market betting on a economic collapse coming. Back to same level of pricing as just after SVB.
On another note - both Agip and Igy commented on how this thread gets quiet when the market not doing so great. I agree with that. I thought we were in for a rough few weeks but has really rebounded.
I bought some 1yr bills yesterday, tentatively pushing it out just a bit. Even by the fake government numbers, it looks like those predicting sticky inflation are so far correct, and it might even be rising. And as long as government spending continues to run amok and is counted toward GDP, that price inflation will probably continue--so I'm hesitant to go out on the curve.
But just looking at nominal yields and cash flow, that 5% for 20yrs is tempting.
As for corporates, yes retired is hot on them. Me, not so much. Living as I do in a high-tax state, it's great for the bottom line to not have to pay state tax on government instruments. I hold most treasuries now in brokerage, and when the next block matures in TD, I will transfer that to brokerage as well, to stay flexible. Even if I just want to go out on the curve a bit.
I will be fishing around for some individual corporates, and maybe get some in Roth--but they would have to be up around 8+% to make them particularly appealing. Petroleos Mexicanos, anyone?
Re: Igy's CEF's. I bought some of both EMD and FAX. Did much better on the EMD, because of when I bought in. With the FAX I had to buy a lot more at a way lower nav after having been in the red, in order to come out in the green, just. Be prepared to do some work, pick your spots, place the right orders, and pay attention if you want to continue to play them. Igy's probably got a process that is efficient for him, but for me, I have gotten lazy and can't be bothered. I would rather work out!
And to veer into gardening, so a little while ago a former colleague of my wife had a bunch of people over to create a rain and pollinator garden on his vast property, because he has advanced Parkinson's and wanted to see the project come to fruition before he dies. So we show up, with a full complement of garden tools, for the whole crew. Everyone was baffled, because we live in a condo and have no yard! WTF? lol it is all part of my apocalypse supplies, some of which I keep ready to go in one of our living rooms, much to my wife's ire. Looks like I'll have to move them back to storage now, thereby ending my halcyon days of springtime gardening :)
If you look to CEF Connect it gives you some good metrics for buys and sells. Also, it is wise, with the high income, to reinvest when the discount to NAV is high. I have several decades experience with EMD and FAX with high confidence in management.
We have a rose garden, and 19 trees to care for. Not a huge property, but enough to keep me busy. The trees can be a bit overwhelmingly in the fall, and the same for pruning the roses. I guess I am of the age where yard work is more interesting than the gym.
I just read somewhere that the single best predictor of fund performance over something like a 15-yr period is expense ratio. Vanguard!
I would highly agree with that. Anyone paying an expense ratio higher than around .04 is a fool.
S & P 500 index fund - I think their expense around .03 or 0.04 - has beat 88% of actively managed funds over the last 15 YEARS!
generally yes fees are absolutely critical. But just to show that there are many ways to invest well...two of my oldest holdings are mutual funds that have very high expense ratios of 1.3%. Yet they are in the top 1-3% of funds in their categories over the last 10 or 15 years. HFCGX, HFMDX.
I just got back from Cabin John MD, and I'm always amazed at the huge tulip trees on the property. The soil out there is just so much more fertile than that anywhere in the midwest, and it shows in the local flora. I spent half a day cutting down some giant vines, while a pileated woodpecker worked on a dead tree about 30' away from me. Good times!
I totally agree, a day doing some good gardening beats any day in the gym, or pretty much doing anything else. For me, especially where fruits and veggies are involved...and maybe some fermentation... :)
Yep I know of some CEF trackers, but like you said there is no substitute in terms of efficiency and comfort than having a couple of decades in the funds. For me, the amount I would have to churn to get those returns, I would be more comfortable churning less and trading something volatile like MSTR, which I do on occasion.
I just read somewhere that the single best predictor of fund performance over something like a 15-yr period is expense ratio. Vanguard!
I would highly agree with that. Anyone paying an expense ratio higher than around .04 is a fool.
S & P 500 index fund - I think their expense around .03 or 0.04 - has beat 88% of actively managed funds over the last 15 YEARS!
Nonsense. Try to find a tech ETF or mutual fund with a fee "below around .04". And forget about leveraging if limiting yourself to that low of an expense fee.
Sure, try to keep fees as low as possible, but other factors may also be considered when choosing one's investments, and they may be more important than choosing investments based simply on fees.
Edit: For the most part, an expense ration of about 0.15 or lower would seem a reasonable target, unless one is delving into levering, and in that case, fees can approach 1%. And within employee sponsored retirement accounts, one is often limited to a choice of actively managed mutual funds, which commonly have higher expense fees and management fees, and there's no way around that since choices are limited.
This post was edited 10 minutes after it was posted.
I would highly agree with that. Anyone paying an expense ratio higher than around .04 is a fool.
S & P 500 index fund - I think their expense around .03 or 0.04 - has beat 88% of actively managed funds over the last 15 YEARS!
Nonsense. Try to find a tech ETF or mutual fund with a fee "below around .04". And forget about leveraging if limiting yourself to that low of an expense fee.
Sure, try to keep fees as low as possible, but other factors may also be considered when choosing one's investments, and they may be more important than choosing investments based simply on fees.