Down goes the Dow

That wasn’t so sarcastic, as it was childish.

RDDT

Totally missed that. Thx.

Since all these amazing gains for the past 15 or so years are directly correlated with M2 and the debt, the bill will come due when either the US decides to actually tighten and not issue more debt, or when the world no longer wishes to purchase that new debt.

#1 will never happen imo.

#2, the US remains the best-looking option internationally...and US citizens are now buying more of the debt themselves, as China et al slowly exit the market.

Bottom line these markets will continue for the foreseeable future, and the gains will offset real inflation.

It's all bullcrap, but like Flagpole said, tptb will do what benefits themselves and their friends, and asset price inflation is their vehicle of choice. I wish I had understood this 15 years ago, when the full ridiculousness began.

btw the entire "markets" are reducible to this one mechanism, modulated somewhat by geopolitical events.

imo all other "market analysis and commentary" is just noise, including the commentary in this thread.

How are you doing Maserati? I hope well.

There is no longer a market economy. The Fed and politicians did create this monster. But now the Commies are in charge of this country. The committed destroy the past; they are our Red Guard. Hard to see where this goes, but not the nirvana you imagine. Who knows? Laws enforced to create an outcome for those in power. In the end, tptb may end up in a long line at the guillotine, or if lucky a gulag or re-education camp.

Your tin foil hat is on a bit too tightly there, Igy.

Wait a minute...aren't analysts supposed to be overly optimistic? We're at 5300. A year ago we were amazingly at 3970.

From a year ago:

FactSet
@FactSet
Industry analysts predict the $SPX close above 4600 in the next 12 months.

Mike Wilson was bullish in December 2023.

Great call.

Le Shrub🌳🔥🇺🇦
@agnostoxxx
Mike Wilson turned bullish.
I might have to sell everything today 🥹🙏

1:49 AM · Dec 18, 2023
·
143.1K
Views

A year ago was the silicon valley and signature bank crisis.

in retrospect it was a great buying opportunity and the crisis did not spread.

the issue was all these banks holding dump trucks full of bonds paying 1% and mark to market losses. I suppose a year later some of those have matured and others are a year closer to maturing so banks can get their money back.

SPX: +33%

FInancials: +33%

This DWAC deal seems like a perfect short. The shares have been pumped up by m'aga as a gift to trump. Trump has to sell them or dispose of them somehow...and he's a 58% shareholder so if he sells everyone will sell.

the risk is that this is just a game and there's no rational purpose to this other than politics and how much m'aga is able to organize and have diamond hands.

I'm sure it would cost a fortune to borrow the shares though...that's probably the biggest problem with the idea.

Coinbase argued against classifying
cryptocurrencies as securities by saying that the digital coins are like
Beanie Babies, more akin to collectibles than stakes in a company.
“It’s the difference between buying Beanie Babies Inc and buying Beanie Babies,” said the Coinbase lawyer William Savitt.

Hyman Minsky, "Everyone can create money; the problem is to get it accepted".

Apparently 11% of the shares are being sold as short position.

Also, upon announcing the Merger with Trump Media co., DWAC turned downward.

What a history of losing...

.

cnbc.com

DWAC stock tumbles more than 12% after Trump social media merger approved by shareholders

https://www.facebook.com/CNBC

Donald Trump stands to reap a windfall of $3 billion or more after Digital World Acquisition Corp. shareholders voted to merger with his social media company.

Link:www.cnbc.com/2024/03/22/trump-social-d...

So the SP500 is up 10% this year already. Wow.

I suspect a lot of long/short funds that have had a good year are going to say 'thank you very much' then go market neutral except for a large slug of short term junk bonds. That could provide a lower risk, lower beta 4-5% for the rest of the year. 13-16% is a great year for a long short fund.

Going to be a lot of 'sell in May and go away' pressure here from funds who just want a double digit year and will get some interest at least until after the election.

Way too early for that, imo.

I'd guess that the biggest factor will be emerging prospect of interest rate cutting, and I think we are early in the coming to terms with the advent of it. Powell's statement this week got the ball rolling, but I have to imagine that not everything is priced in yet.

The thing with sell in May and go away seems to be less true in the last couple of years because there are such big factors to account for that it is no longer the luxury it used to be. And this being an election year, and a close one at that, leads me to believe that the pattern of volatility will continue.

On the plus side, the economic development and avoidance of crisis/recession/bank collapses/more rate hiking, etc, has been nothing short of miraculous.

The Bull market began in Oct. 2022 and 2 years will be up in Oct. this year. On average a Bull market after 2 years is up 61% so the market if stays with the average for a bull market has another 20% to go through Oct.

I just played around on Schwab.com about shorting DWAC. Looks like the loan on your borrowed shares would cost 150%. So ah no thankee.

On ameritrade, it doesn't list the margin requirements for that one. Odd.

It's tempting to short a few shares just out of curiosity.