Down goes the Dow

120 days since the October low

that's a lot.

Igy’s bear market rally has some legs. 😂

Just added to SOXS.

Wobbly legs, 25.2 miles of a marathon legs. 😹

Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2022 (with 69% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 69% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 63% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Same FactSet Report:

“At this point in time, 71 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q1 2023. Of these 71 companies, 58 have issued negative EPS guidance and 13 have issued positive EPS guidance. The percentage of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for Q1 2023 is 82% (58 out of 71), which is above the 5-year average of 59% and above the 10-year average of 67%. At the sector level, the Information Technology (21) and Industrials (12) sectors have the highest number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance.”

And this too…

”The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.0. This P/E ratio is below the 5-year average (18.5) but above the 10-year average (17.2).”

Absolutely the worst measuring stick for future returns.But go ahead, you think the market has legs.

so are we now tossing out the Shiller PE? It's certainly been a terrible predictor of returns.

Beat me to it.

Getting 4.6% apy right now in the Marcus savings account. Feels tough to enter back into the market at these levels with that risk free rate right now.

But I’m 30 solid cashflow so I should prob risk on and not just clip coupons

That is a looking backward view from historic monetary and fiscal stimulus. CAPE 10 is not timing mechanism. CAPE 10 is a far better predictor of future returns than Forward PE, which is ginned up by major investment firms.

Beat you to a foolish assumption.

Agreed this might be the biggest impediment to stock market returns, agreed. No sarcasm.

So far, 79.4% of the S&P 500 have reported for Q4 2022. The current estimate for 2022 GAAP EPS is $174.69, and with year end close of 3839.50 leaves the 2022 GAAP PE of 23.36. Not cheap at all, and EPS trending worse, not better. So all this bullish talk is just that.

Yeah I mean it seems like the talk these days are bonds and HYSA. People talking about 3M Tbill vs this or that savings…

So does that mean zig when they zag? Or clip the rate while things get worse

The way I approach it is to hedge my bets. I am not fully committed to going all in, so I am doing it incrementally as the market gains footing, Partial bets, if you will.

This stuff with the small percent returns on the bonds, yeah, I fiddle around there, too. But it's mostly to do something with the cash that's sitting on the sidelines. As soon as I feel better about all in on the markets, that's history.

My gut feeling is that we are unlikely to revisit the market lows of a few months ago. I don't see it. Trading sideways for a long time may be in the cards, though.

You missed the point again. No surprise.