S+P 500 well into bear market territory for the year now. Down over 21%.
Nearing the low I would imagine.j
NASDAQ even worse
Your Hussman Strategic must be jamming!
Well into 2030, or beyond…..
Given that the price/revenue ratio is among the valuation measures best-correlated with actual subsequent total returns in market cycles across history, it's nice to see this measure back down to the 2000 highs.
Of course, the 2000 highs were the the highest ever recorded to that point. Speaking of points, what was yours again?
In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value (4,069.31 to 2,470.52). In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value (2,470.52 to 1,950.40). In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value (1,950.40 to 1,335.51). :-)
Of course, the 2000 highs were the the highest ever recorded to that point. Speaking of points, what was yours again?
In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value (4,069.31 to 2,470.52). In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value (2,470.52 to 1,950.40). In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value (1,950.40 to 1,335.51). :-)
Of course, the 2000 highs were the the highest ever recorded to that point. Speaking of points, what was yours again?
In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value (4,069.31 to 2,470.52). In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value (2,470.52 to 1,950.40). In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value (1,950.40 to 1,335.51). :-)
a year ago I sold a big chunk of VTI, the total US stock market.
Great, right? Good move agip!
Yeah nah I put the proceeds into the total bond market index which is down just as much as the stock index. Practically anyway. merde.
That's a major problem here, why the market is just melting away. Usually when the stock market falls the bond market is strong. So you get a constant rebalancing to support stocks - a constant flow into stocks. Portfolio managers sell high (bonds) and buy low (stocks) to keep their portfolio in line.
But this time we're not getting that rebalancing because stocks and bonds are down about the same. Yet another problem we have.
In 2000, the Nasdaq lost 39.28% of its value (4,069.31 to 2,470.52). In 2001, the Nasdaq lost 21.05% of its value (2,470.52 to 1,950.40). In 2002, the Nasdaq lost 31.53% of its value (1,950.40 to 1,335.51). :-)
a year ago I sold a big chunk of VTI, the total US stock market.
Great, right? Good move agip!
Yeah nah I put the proceeds into the total bond market index which is down just as much as the stock index. Practically anyway. merde.
That's a major problem here, why the market is just melting away. Usually when the stock market falls the bond market is strong. So you get a constant rebalancing to support stocks - a constant flow into stocks. Portfolio managers sell high (bonds) and buy low (stocks) to keep their portfolio in line.
But this time we're not getting that rebalancing because stocks and bonds are down about the same. Yet another problem we have.
Down a couple of bucks as an oil holding is down nearly 7%.
WTF?
we're going into full recession positioning
the price of oil falls during a recession
oil is down 5% today, to $79, the same as oil company stocks.
everything is now being priced for a recession.
I'm loading up on investment quality bonds. Seems to me that in a couple years being able to load up on high quality bonds paying 5% will look pretty good.
And I think interest rates will be lower in a year or two, so we might get a cap gain too.
interesting that value funds will get slaughtered today, after being safe havens for a long time. Because they owned a lot of energy. But today those strong oil stocks are down 5-6%, so value will get hurt worse than growth.
getting to the point where you sell even the stuff you love.
seriously....trillions of dollars are going to ask 'why in the world am I in stocks to get 8% *maybe* when I can just buy corporate bonds with much less risk and get 5%?????
that could be a major re-rating of PEs to lower numbers.
also, annuities are probably increasing their payouts quite a bit. Although inflation is an annuity-killer....high inflation for a few years and you are destroyed.
it's a new world. Right now.
Although my base case is that inflation is ending and this will be just a short term spike in interest rates. I don't see the world as changed fundamentally.
I think taking advantage of these high rates will benefit man retirees if they are quick about it.