GDP Now just flipped negative for the 2Q: -1.0%.
That's way below consensus. Since the 1Q was negative, if the 2Q comes in negative also, that would be a recession by some definitions.
Which gives credence to the idea that we are no longer on inflation watch, but actually on recession watch. The good news is that since we're at full employment and consumer and biz balance sheets are fine....shouldn't be much of a recession, if it happens.
And also, of course, the stock market bottoms months before the economy bottoms. So the big decline we just had in stocks could be the recession bottom in stocks, even tho the economy has more room to shrink.
I will say....in times of quickly moving inflation, trying to measure after-inflation GDP growth is a fool's errand. How we define inflation will cut off or add dozens of basis points to the final number.
And inflation is moving fast....the breakeven markets in TIPS suggest we'll be back to 2-3% in a year or two.