An interesting take! I like it
An interesting take! I like it
Premarket looking rough.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a retreat to Monday’s levels on the fang stocks.
Amazing how the S&P gains have all been due to a handful of high-flyers.
I hope Igy comes back soon. I first learned of SARK from him. His prediction of 60 this year is looking pretty good right now.
Maser wrote:
Premarket looking rough.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a retreat to Monday’s levels on the fang stocks.
Amazing how the S&P gains have all been due to a handful of high-flyers.
Meh - days like these just happen now. Post-pandemic stock market is just more volatile
investing noob wrote:
I hope Igy comes back soon. I first learned of SARK from him. His prediction of 60 this year is looking pretty good right now.
That was nice. Thank you.
ARKK had $352 million in outflows Wednesday! The $60 number is a bear market collapse, which would not be kind to mega cap growth. As Maserati alluded to, that is an area of vulnerability.
😋
Prof. Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
oh, you're losing.
You've been poo-pooing the idea that omicron is slowing economic activity
I've been saying that omicron has indeed been keeping people home, probably spending less moolah.
Although omicron is fading fast in the Northeast so this will end pretty quickly.
b.s.
I want proof that it's actually omicron and not just usual winter activity. Didn't someone here just say that January is usually a sh!t show anyways?
Consumer surveys have to say "I spent less this month because of omicron" or else it doesn't count.
ok so far we know that
1/ 30% of NYC skoolkidz are staying home out of fear or positive tests
2/ aiport traffic is down the most in a long time
3/today we learned retail sales fell the most in 10 months
I dunno lil'racketo...sounds to me like evidence is piling up that omicron is taking a bite out of economic activity here.
but as I've said, the wave has already crested in the Northeast so it looks like we'll have the same fast up, fast down pattern as elsewhere.
Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales slumped in December by the most in 10 months, suggesting the fastest inflation in decades is taking a greater toll on consumers just as the nation confronts more coronavirus infections.
eh scratch #3...these data precede Omicron
agip wrote:...the wave has already crested in the Northeast so it looks like we'll have the same fast up, fast down pattern as elsewhere.
Reported cases have crested in places. For the most part, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths still have room to run.
You make a good point about the "fast down pattern" which we should presumably see in fatalities as well as cases. That will be a good thing if it occurs (seems likely) since, while the peak daily deaths will get very high, the total numbers may not exceed the first couple of waves.
whiplash!
tech already up 1.1% from its morning lows. Only 15 minutes into the trading day.
agip wrote:
whiplash!
tech already up 1.1% from its morning lows. Only 15 minutes into the trading day.
using stops is just deadly in times like this. You get taken out because of a 5-minute spike down.
I bet a lot of people put stops on and were cleaned out right away.
I wonder if anyone can intentionally knock an ETF down to hit a cascade of stops, then scoop up shares at lower prices. Using levered options? Not something I know much about.
STOP THE COUNT!!
WHERE'S MYPILLOW GUY WHEN I NEED HIM
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
ok so far we know that
1/ 30% of NYC skoolkidz are staying home out of fear or positive tests
2/ aiport traffic is down the most in a long time
3/today we learned retail sales fell the most in 10 months
I dunno lil'racketo...sounds to me like evidence is piling up that omicron is taking a bite out of economic activity here.
but as I've said, the wave has already crested in the Northeast so it looks like we'll have the same fast up, fast down pattern as elsewhere.
Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales slumped in December by the most in 10 months, suggesting the fastest inflation in decades is taking a greater toll on consumers just as the nation confronts more coronavirus infections.
eh scratch #3...these data precede Omicron
That was like how Black Friday sales were down - everyone did shopping early this year because of supply chain warnings. So I'm not totally convinced yet.
S&P still in an upward trend, higher highs, higher lows, according to “chartists”—i.e. one of my friends.😁
Maser wrote:
S&P still in an upward trend, higher highs, higher lows, according to “chartists”—i.e. one of my friends.😁
Dehydrated, leg cramps, wind in the face, with a mile to go in an uphill marathon…😹
Igy welcome back.
I found this impressive - Morningstar's evaluation of Kathy Wood.
This is from March 2021, when she was riding high.
Pretty good evaluation, given what has happened to that fund since.
Wood’s reliance on her instincts to construct the portfolio is a liability. This is a high-risk, benchmark-agnostic portfolio that invests across technology platforms the team thinks will revolutionize how sectors across the globe operate. The firm favors companies that are often unprofitable, highly volatile, and could plummet in tandem. Rather than gauge the portfolio’s aggregate risk exposures and simulate their effects during a variety of market conditions, the firm uses its past as a guide to the future and views risk almost exclusively through the lens of its bottom-up research. The fund lacks well-defined risk controls, which are now more important than ever. As its asset base has swelled to $23 billion, the fund has become less liquid and more vulnerable to severe losses. As an exchange-traded fund, it can’t close to investors.
ARK’s untested analysts, go-with-your-gut risk management approach, and bloated asset base raise doubts about whether this fund’s outstanding historical results can continue.
She bought into the hype and started to believe that she was actually a genius when she should have kept her eyes on the real prize as an average fund manager raking in exorbitant ETF management fees. That's what most of those ETFs are about anyways.
Thanks agip.
HSGFX up 5% YTD. I believe this excerpt from his January 2022 comment is appropriate:
“It may be true that zero interest rates provide investors “no alternative” but to speculate. But as Graham emphasized, there are many ways in which speculation can be unintelligent. The first of these is speculating when you think you are investing.
I cringe when I hear analysts talking as if any dividend yield above zero is “better” than zero interest rates. That argument relies entirely on ruling out even the smallest decline in price, and the smallest retreat from current valuation extremes. The dividend yield of the S&P 500 is just 1.3% here. It was lower only in the quarters surrounding the 2000 bubble peak. The run-of-the-mill historical norm is about 3.7%.
Those of you who are familiar with finance can prove to yourself that the effective “duration” of stocks (the weighted-average number of years needed for present value to be repaid by cash flows, and the sensitivity of the market price to changes in the discount rate) works out mathematically to be approximately the price/dividend multiple. From that perspective, one can think of the S&P 500 as being a 77-year duration investment here, compared with a historical norm closer to 27 years.“
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Thanks agip.
HSGFX up 5% YTD. I believe this excerpt from his January 2022 comment is appropriate:
Imagine citing YTD gains when there's only been like, what, 9 trading days in the whole year so far? lmao
Prof. Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Thanks agip.
HSGFX up 5% YTD. I believe this excerpt from his January 2022 comment is appropriate:
Imagine citing YTD gains when there's only been like, what, 9 trading days in the whole year so far? lmao
More laughable is the belief that the past five years is anything representative of the investment future.