Down goes the Dow

I’ll be interested in seeing how all EVs fare as battery replacement becomes a large scale reality.

This is interesting.

going by PE, the market was more expensive a year ago, before it rose 27%.

Charlie Bilello

@charliebilello

The S&P 500 entered 2021 with a P/E ratio of 30.7 and ended with a P/E ratio of 23.6.

Why did multiples contract?

Earnings grew 65% during 2021 (the highest annual increase on record), far outpacing the S&P 500's gain of 27% (price only).

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Never could have imagined the nonsense passed off as legitimate. Hard to reconcile all the collective weirdness is not the biggest asset bubble ever.

And that’s why you personally had negative returns for 2021 and many years before.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Never could have imagined the nonsense passed off as legitimate. Hard to reconcile all the collective weirdness is not the biggest asset bubble ever.

Is a bubble a lie if it doesn't burst?

Or is it something worse?

Sung to the tune of "The River" by Bruce, 'the Boss', Springsteen

agip wrote:

Why did multiples contract?

(price only).

Possibly because money rotated out of small caps with ultra high P/E (e.g., ARK), and into value sectors.

Also, Tesla is a huge solar company too; somehow it survived the value rotation.

agip wrote:

investing noob wrote:

Tesla was 600bil a few months ago. What has changed between then and now? When Tesla sells 10mil vehicles like Toyota, will it be a ten trillion dollar company?

it's not about car sales

it's trusting that this young company with the great brand name that can attract some of the best minds in the world, and which is led by a genius, will find a way to make more money in ways we don't know yet. Battery packs, charging stations, who knows.

Like how Steve Jobs created new revenue streams for Apple away from computers. Music, phones, watches, etc.

As bezos created amazon web services.

As GE created GE capital. heh.

Think of it as buying shares in the wide-open idea of 'Tesla' rather than buying shares in a car company.

Okay, so what has changed between September when Tesla was 600bil and now? Besides hype?

Apple didn't become 1 trillion until 2018 after selling 217 million iPhones. They had already been profitable for many years. Everyone and their mom had one.

Only a niche group wants to buy or can afford any Tesla products. I can afford one and all of my family members can, but none of us would spend that much on a car. We all drive cheap Hondas, Toyotas and Mazdas. Is Tesla even profitable yet? I thought a large portion of their profit was from selling BTC?

What happened? Demand for TSLA shares increased as a result of more people tuning in to watch the Elon Musk Show, as promoted incessantly by his backers.

It is as simple as that. If this is the first time you are witnessing this phenomenon, know that it happens all the time, at all levels, according to the perceived marketability of the dream being sold.

A strategy as old as the hills.

seattle prattle wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Never could have imagined the nonsense passed off as legitimate. Hard to reconcile all the collective weirdness is not the biggest asset bubble ever.

Is a bubble a lie if it doesn't burst?

Or is it something worse?

Sung to the tune of "The River" by Bruce, 'the Boss', Springsteen

😷

I'm starting to think SARK is a scam.

Friday:

ARKK -2.18%

SARK -0.98%

This morning premarket:

ARKK +1.28%

SARK -2.83%

WTF? It is not mirroring ARKK at all.

Gruntz wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Never could have imagined the nonsense passed off as legitimate. Hard to reconcile all the collective weirdness is not the biggest asset bubble ever.

And that’s why you personally had negative returns for 2021 and many years before.

Not just the biggest asset bubble ever but the longest asset bubble too?

I'm starting to think SARK is a scam.

Friday:

ARKK -2.18%

SARK -0.98%

This morning premarket:

ARKK +1.28%

SARK -2.83%

WTF? It is not mirroring ARKK at all.

Like Maser says, short term moves are just noise and not usually true changes in the value of a company. The signal is a long term chart with monthly points, the noise is a daily price chart.

As for profitability without government help...I don't know. But remember that stock prices tend to look into the future. So it might not matter if tesla is profitable NOW without gummint help....if investors think that it *will be* profitable without government help down the road. And without all those legacy union contracts and without any advertising expenses etc....

investing noob wrote:

I'm starting to think SARK is a scam.

Friday:

ARKK -2.18%

SARK -0.98%

This morning premarket:

ARKK +1.28%

SARK -2.83%

WTF? It is not mirroring ARKK at all.

1 month returns

ARKK -10.0%

SARK +7.41%

yeah it looks like the mirror is a bit warped.

First reminder of the year -

Stocks only go up

That makes sense. Will be interesting once the environmental credits go away. It's so wild to me how Tesla doubled in market cap in a couple months.

I actually cross shopped a Rav4 Prime and Model Y. Model Y is so low to the ground, it doesn't feel like an SUV at all. The reports about the bad panel alignment turned me off. I just don't see the appeal I guess.

Is….that a bell I hear ringing?

Suckers, time for last licks.

Matt….Damon.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1477844071066763268?s=21

Re: TSLA and gov support

Nothing gets to the top without gov support—be it direct investment, subsidy, regulation removal, quid-pro-quo, etc. Think about it, and you will see it in whatever big stock you choose to investigate.

Cars,,,clean energy...oil...pharma...banking...ag...aerospace...etc

I’m thinking of loading up on aapl again, but need to look at phone cycles. I am hopeful about their possible challenge to tsla. TSLA has been progressive, maybe even cavalier, on implementing tech—but aapl has design, and maybe the most solidly valuable trade dress among consumer goods.

Apply that to a solidly-functioning car, and you have got the biggest thing in that segment in a very, very long time. I am...hopeful.

agip wrote:

investing noob wrote:

I'm starting to think SARK is a scam.

Friday:

ARKK -2.18%

SARK -0.98%

This morning premarket:

ARKK +1.28%

SARK -2.83%

WTF? It is not mirroring ARKK at all.

1 month returns

ARKK -10.0%

SARK +7.41%

yeah it looks like the mirror is a bit warped.

One year return:

ARKK -23%

Six week return

SARK. +25%

I see what you mean😷

investing noob wrote:

I'm starting to think SARK is a scam.

Friday:

ARKK -2.18%

SARK -0.98%

This morning premarket:

ARKK +1.28%

SARK -2.83%

WTF? It is not mirroring ARKK at all.

Bitcoin -0.63%

Bitcoin ETF +1.67%