Down goes the Dow

seattle prattle wrote:

agip wrote:

Permanent? That is not tenable. And that’s the problem - can’t stay forever so why stay another day?

Best summary I’ve seen is that the foreign policy experts of Dems and reps say leaving is a mistake. The people say otherwise or don’t care. So Biden is following the people.

That's what i thought.

It seems the occupation wasn't working but was effective from letting it get worse, so in that sense, it was working. But admittedly, the attempts at peace talks were not progressing (since they were announced over a year ago) and there seemed to be a shortage of things left to try.

I suppose one could argue that 'permanent' is 'tenable' since we've been in South Korea for generations.

but that's different...two strong central governments vs the utter chaos and lack of central government in Afghanistan.

agip wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It appears Biden’s decision to pull all troops out of Afghanistan was a mistake. Keeping a permanent military presence may have made more sense.

Permanent? That is not tenable. And that’s the problem - can’t stay forever so why stay another day?

Best summary I’ve seen is that the foreign policy experts of Dems and reps say leaving is a mistake. The people say otherwise or don’t care. So Biden is following the people.

But we stay in Germany and Japan permanently. That has not been necessary for more than a decade.

Anyway this decision is done, and hope for the best.

We went in guns blazing. After $Trillions spent leave humiliated. So much for Empire building. Better take care of our own sick society.

We went in guns blazing. After $Trillions spent we leave in a hurry humiliated. So much for Empire building. Better take care of our own sick society.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2021 (with 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 87% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 87% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

I read in the economist an interesting idea.

In the past, for a poor country to get richer, it industrialized. It made stuff. South Korea, China, Japan.

But now manufacturing doesn’t lift a nation as much as it used to. Because so much of it is automated. Just not a lot of good jobs anymore.

So that’s why emerging markets have gone nowhere for a decade. There is no clear way anymore for poor countries to get richer.

The old path, manufacturing, is shut down.

An interview exception is Africa, which is so poor that even low margin manufacturing would be a big boost.

Also, I like that this gives the lie to the ‘a country has to make stuff to get rich!’ Well maybe in the past. But manufacturing is low impact now.

Have to come up with something else.

The US has tech. Find an area with something good other than manufacturing and it may be a good investment.

What is rich? By any normal standard this country is bankrupt, morally and fiscally. The fall of Afghanistan is more than symbolic.

Like many things, a note of truth to what you say, though sometimes the answer lies in what have taken for granted - our blind assumptions, if you will.

In that vein, who says it has to be nations that tap into these new developments? Maybe it is beyond that now and it is multinational corporations that pick up the ball and run. These behemoths know no borders.

I mean, look at Apple. It is as much tied to SV (USA) as it is to the assembly facilities in China.

Reminds me how for a while China was the big player as solar panels were an emerging market.

Or there were a number of angles to play the emergence of 5G, like buying up the chip makers (again, not a country, but a sector).

US has always prided itself in fostering innovation, which feeds the pipeline for these ideas. which certainly has served us well in the past.

To say Apple is this great innovator masks the fact that it is one of the biggest players in financialization. Look for yourself, page 22 of the 2020 annual report.

https://s2.q4cdn.com/470004039/files/doc_financials/2020/ar/_10-K-2020-(As-Filed).pdf

“Innovation” is derived from Fed easy money policies used to buyback stock. Compare net income to shares figured in EPS totals. I believe net income was $53 Billion in the 2015 Annual Report. Investors told a story and just keep getting hooked on the same baloney. Never even looking at the numbers. But whatever, I still like my five year old iPad and my three year old iPhone. I would never consider buying more storage on the iCloud, so no service revenue from me.

To be clear, I wasn't saying apple was an ex. of innovation as much as an example of a multinational not confined by borders.

On the topic of share buybacks boosting the numbers, I will take your word for it. I'm not selling, and whatever it's been doing, it's been working. And therein lies the train i ride.

Fair enough.

FYI: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

FYI: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E8qsV7VXsAEVyms?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

seattle prattle wrote:

To be clear, I wasn't saying apple was an ex. of innovation as much as an example of a multinational not confined by borders.

That was quite clear to most of us.

Year to Date

GME +762%

BTC +60

Retail +49

Energy +33

REITS +27

Equal Weight SP500 +23

Value +21

SP500 +20

USA +19

US div strategy +19

Tech +18

Cons Disc +16

Small Caps+15

Non US Developed +13

Global 60/40 +9

Hussman +6

TIPS +4

Emerging +3

Junk +3

Airlines +2

TSLA +2

AMZN +1

Treasuries -1

Corp Bonds -1

ARKK -4

Clean energy -6

Gold -7

China -12

Hard not to make a lot of money this year, that's for sure.

Almost any poor choice just meant you made less than everyone else.

Hussman is falling far behind its rival 60/40.

BTC is roaring but ARKK is not. Odd.

Probably close to the time to take profits in TIPS - the inflation scare is starting to taper off.

Equal weight SP500 still well ahead of the regular version. Probably AMZN's garbage 2021 is a major reason for that. But it does show the broad advance of the market this year.

My main two thoughts this week:

1) If emerging market manufacturing is not a valid growth strategy anymore...why own EM at all? I mean the idea of EM has been to own the factory floor of the world. If that is a failed thesis ...you own all the dysfunction of EM nations and less of the growth. Although they do have growing populations (except for china), which is a big positive when compared to the shrinking rich nations,.

2) Seems to me the US market is not sure what will come after this growth surge. And it can't quite get its head around what effect inflation will have on profits. So maybe a smart move would be to buy dividend stocks instead of the SP500 and get paid more to wait.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

We went in guns blazing. After $Trillions spent we leave in a hurry humiliated. So much for Empire building. Better take care of our own sick society.

Empire building? In Afghanistan? You, sir, are clueless.