VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Here's an update of progress against the SP500 forecast I made nearly 3 years ago (March 2018). First, here is the overall curve since 1950 I based the forecast on:
Zooming in to the last few years, this is what the 2018 projection looked like, compared with actual index values since that time:
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I would say we will most likely end 2021 at around 3500, which is a decent drop from where we are today. That said, if the UD Fed keeps printing money and central banks around the world keep debt nearly free, I could see the index continuing to drift upward.
Personally though, I'm starting to move slowly toward cash (currently at maybe 15-20% in investment accounts, along with another ~ 10% investment grade corporate bonds) to build a supply of dry powder.
I'll need that dry powder to buy a bunch of bargain BTC around the end of the year. :-)
Cash? In the US inflation is expected to heat up to the point where holding cash might mean like a 4% or 5% loss. Not sure what the project is for euro-bucks but I assume the ECB is going for the same effect