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  • Dr. Racket
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 6:04am CST
    re: VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot
    Forum Index
    VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
    Here's an update of progress against the SP500 forecast I made nearly 3 years ago (March 2018). First, here is the overall curve since 1950 I based the forecast on:

    https://ibb.co/1GMY5CS

    Zooming in to the last few years, this is what the 2018 projection looked like, compared with actual index values since that time:

    https://ibb.co/pP2mnJR

    If I were a betting man (I'm not), I would say we will most likely end 2021 at around 3500, which is a decent drop from where we are today. That said, if the UD Fed keeps printing money and central banks around the world keep debt nearly free, I could see the index continuing to drift upward.

    Personally though, I'm starting to move slowly toward cash (currently at maybe 15-20% in investment accounts, along with another ~ 10% investment grade corporate bonds) to build a supply of dry powder.

    I'll need that dry powder to buy a bunch of bargain BTC around the end of the year. :-)


    Cash? In the US inflation is expected to heat up to the point where holding cash might mean like a 4% or 5% loss. Not sure what the project is for euro-bucks but I assume the ECB is going for the same effect
  • VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 6:37am CST
    re: Dr. Racket
    Forum Index
    Dr. Racket wrote:Cash? In the US inflation is expected to heat up to the point where holding cash might mean like a 4% or 5% loss. Not sure what the project is for euro-bucks but I assume the ECB is going for the same effect

    I don't hold any cash in $USD, and only pocket change (grocery money) in Euros.

    In any event, of course cash does worse against inflation than something that appreciates (but all assets' appreciation will be affected the same way by inflation; if my cash loses 5%, then a 10% gain on QQQ is only a real gain of 5%, so the spread between what cash holdings will do versus securities). But in the next market dip, when ETFs we hold drop 10 to 30%, the cash will not follow suit. Cash does way better than depreciating securities...
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 8:04am CST
    re: Gruntz
    Forum Index
    Gruntz wrote:
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    Gruntz wrote:
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    I have a 19 year old car with zero issues.


    Do you still owe the bank for that one too?


    Still needing Ritalin for your obsession?


    Answering a question with a question is classic avoidance. So, it’s a “yes”. I’m sure glad you weren’t my financial advisor.


    I know for sure that your Igy obsession owns you. Funnily enough, I am your financial advisor. 🤡
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 8:12am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index

    I am selling some of my MS deferred comp this morning. Interestingly, up to this point, it has never reached it’s summer 2000 high.
  • Gruntz
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 8:27am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    Gruntz wrote:
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    Gruntz wrote:
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    I have a 19 year old car with zero issues.


    Do you still owe the bank for that one too?


    Still needing Ritalin for your obsession?


    Answering a question with a question is classic avoidance. So, it’s a “yes”. I’m sure glad you weren’t my financial advisor.


    I know for sure that your Igy obsession owns you. Funnily enough, I am your financial advisor. 🤡


    If you were my financial advisor, I would be in debt up to my ears like you. Fortunately I have more financial sense than that.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 8:50am CST
    re: Gruntz
    Forum Index

    Yea, but you had to work a sucky job your entire career. Pat yourself on the back for your frugal existence, tour the senior center in the Honda Civic. The life of a government pensioner.

    Oh, and your Igy obsession owns you. You will always be in debt🤡.
  • la gente esta muy loca
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 9:33am CST
    re: VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot
    Forum Index
    VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
    Dr. Racket wrote:Cash? In the US inflation is expected to heat up to the point where holding cash might mean like a 4% or 5% loss. Not sure what the project is for euro-bucks but I assume the ECB is going for the same effect


    I don't hold any cash in $USD, and only pocket change (grocery money) in Euros.

    In any event, of course cash does worse against inflation than something that appreciates (but all assets' appreciation will be affected the same way by inflation; if my cash loses 5%, then a 10% gain on QQQ is only a real gain of 5%, so the spread between what cash holdings will do versus securities). But in the next market dip, when ETFs we hold drop 10 to 30%, the cash will not follow suit. Cash does way better than depreciating securities...


    From 1966 to 1985 3 month T-Bills outperformed the S&P 500.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 9:38am CST
    re: la gente esta muy loca
    Forum Index
    la gente esta muy loca wrote:
    VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
    Dr. Racket wrote:Cash? In the US inflation is expected to heat up to the point where holding cash might mean like a 4% or 5% loss. Not sure what the project is for euro-bucks but I assume the ECB is going for the same effect


    I don't hold any cash in $USD, and only pocket change (grocery money) in Euros.

    In any event, of course cash does worse against inflation than something that appreciates (but all assets' appreciation will be affected the same way by inflation; if my cash loses 5%, then a 10% gain on QQQ is only a real gain of 5%, so the spread between what cash holdings will do versus securities). But in the next market dip, when ETFs we hold drop 10 to 30%, the cash will not follow suit. Cash does way better than depreciating securities...


    From 1966 to 1985 3 month T-Bills outperformed the S&P 500.


    How about 1996 thru 2009?
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 9:40am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index

    More to the point 6/1996 thru 3/2009.....?
  • la gente esta muy loca
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 9:42am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    la gente esta muy loca wrote:
    VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
    Dr. Racket wrote:Cash? In the US inflation is expected to heat up to the point where holding cash might mean like a 4% or 5% loss. Not sure what the project is for euro-bucks but I assume the ECB is going for the same effect


    I don't hold any cash in $USD, and only pocket change (grocery money) in Euros.

    In any event, of course cash does worse against inflation than something that appreciates (but all assets' appreciation will be affected the same way by inflation; if my cash loses 5%, then a 10% gain on QQQ is only a real gain of 5%, so the spread between what cash holdings will do versus securities). But in the next market dip, when ETFs we hold drop 10 to 30%, the cash will not follow suit. Cash does way better than depreciating securities...


    From 1966 to 1985 3 month T-Bills outperformed the S&P 500.


    How about 1996 thru 2009?


    That was for one month, not 19 years.
  • Gruntz
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 9:51am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    Yea, but you had to work a sucky job your entire career. Pat yourself on the back for your frugal existence, tour the senior center in the Honda Civic. The life of a government pensioner.

    Oh, and your Igy obsession owns you. You will always be in debt🤡.


    I love how you make up your own little stories about people. I guess you just can’t handle the truth.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 10:12am CST
    re: Gruntz
    Forum Index

    Certainly clear your Igy obsession owns you 🤡.
  • Gruntz
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 11:16am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    Certainly clear your Igy obsession owns you 🤡.


    Typical narcissistic response. You think it’s all about you. That’s why you like to belittle others in an attempt to bring them down to your level. You can’t stand the thought that there are people here that are smarter than you.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 11:39am CST
    re: Gruntz
    Forum Index

    Same obsession, you’re owned, admit it.🤡
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 11:46am CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-01-22/grantham-sees-bubble-signal-in-huge-penny-stock-volumes-video
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 12:45pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index

    Full interview:

    Talks prospects of clean energy, emerging markets, and negative crypto.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2021-01-22/why-grantham-says-the-next-crash-will-rival-1929-2000-video
  • agip
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 1:45pm CST
    re: Dr. Racket
    Forum Index
    Dr. Racket wrote:
    VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
    Dr. Racket wrote:The absolute pinnacle of reckless, dumb, speculative trading is going on right now in the form of a short squeeze on GameStop. It's so beautifully post-modern and chaotic, I love it and hate it at the same time.


    OK, I'll bite... what is GameStop? And can you give more details of this short squeeze?


    Just search news for the ticker GME.

    It's a brick and mortar store (because those are doing well) that mostly operates out of malls (because commercial real estate is doing great). They sell video games and game consoles, some other apparel stuff too. Basically a whole bunch of short sellers (a few big ones) piled in when it was around like $10. I have no idea why anyone would start shorting at $10 - it's like squeezing blood from a rock at that point. Anyways, the CEO of Chewy managed to buy enough shares to get a place on the board, he's really bullish on the place, and it sent the stock up, and it started a bit of squeeze.

    The interesting angle is the retail investor component in it. Basically started as a grassroots thing on a certain subreddit and now they're like publicly feuding with the short sellers and also Jim Cramer.


    GME was up around 78% at one point today
    squeeze ja
  • Earnie
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 3:31pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index

    Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2020 (with 13% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 82% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 86% is the final percentage, it will tie the mark for the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.
  • Gruntz
    registered
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 5:53pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:
    Same obsession, you’re owned, admit it.🤡


    I have no idea what that means.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    1 month ago 01/22/2021 6:15pm CST
    re: Earnie
    Forum Index
    Earnie wrote:
    Earnings Scorecard: For Q4 2020 (with 13% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 82% have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 86% is the final percentage, it will tie the mark for the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.


    From the same report:

    “If -4.7% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the fifth-largest (year-over-year) decline in earnings reported by the index since Q3 2009. It will also mark the fourth straight quarter and the seventh time in the past eight quarters in which the index has reported a year-over-year decline in earnings. “
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