Down goes the Dow

---

Say wha? wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

POTO wrote:

You mad, bro?

---

No. How about you?

---

What makes you think he was replying to you?

---

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

What's the top?

I am betting just over 20,000

---

Predicting a top is meaningless without a time frame.

---

---

K5.1 wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

What's the top?

I am betting just over 20,000

---

Predicting a top is meaningless without a time frame.

---

look at the first post in the thread

---

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

What's the top?

I am betting just over 20,000

---

Predicting a top is meaningless without a time frame.

---

look at the first post in the thread

---

Well that was a waste of time.

---

---

K5.2 wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

What's the top?

I am betting just over 20,000

---

Predicting a top is meaningless without a time frame.

---

look at the first post in the thread

---

Well that was a waste of time.

---

Now look at the fifth post in the thread.

---

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.2 wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

---

Pointing Out the Obvious wrote:

---

K5.1 wrote:

What's the top?

I am betting just over 20,000

---

Predicting a top is meaningless without a time frame.

---

look at the first post in the thread

---

Well that was a waste of time.

---

Now look at the fifth post in the thread.

---

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

I'll pass. If you want us to read something, quote it in your post.

---

Cash is King.

---

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Cash is King.

---

Hey Biturbo Sucked, how's that Maserati worship working out for you?

My view is that domestic equity prices are stretched based on several valuation methodologies that have proven accurate over time. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown from $900 billion to $4.4 Trillion since the recent financial crisis. The net result of this unprecedented stimulus is to drive equity prices to record highs. The CNBC cheerleaders say the Fed "has your back." Now that the Fed appears to be moving to a rate hike the same CNBC cheerleaders cry "the economy is improving." Well, in my opinion you can't have it both ways. There is plenty of evidence that the distortions are plenty. Look at the retirees that are forced from CDs and money market into dividend paying stocks. Think of the risk they have undertaken, and at their age. It really is shamefull. Anyhow, it really doesn't matter what I think. In the end, at the point people prefer cash to equities, and that period goes for more than a few days, well at that point, the game is over. Stocks are no more than an investment that should generate cash flow. No different than buying rental property, you pay too much, the return is simply not there. For example paying 30 to 40 times last year's earnings for a cereal makers or a burrito restaurant makes no sense. I have been at thislong enough to smell a rat.

Retirees have not been forced to do anything. As always, higher rates means more risk. If someone wants a higher return, they have to be willing to accept the risk. If they don't want the risk, stick with CDs or bonds. There's nothing new here.

---

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My view is that domestic equity prices are stretched based on several valuation methodologies that have proven accurate over time. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown from $900 billion to $4.4 Trillion since the recent financial crisis. The net result of this unprecedented stimulus is to drive equity prices to record highs. The CNBC cheerleaders say the Fed "has your back." Now that the Fed appears to be moving to a rate hike the same CNBC cheerleaders cry "the economy is improving." ...

---

Seven years ago a retiree could find a 4% CD generating $4,000 in income from a $100k investment. Where can that retiree find that income today? The Fed has exactly said they want investors to take more risk.

The Fed is using that word patient to describe the timing of any rate hike. The point is, Friday's market sell off came with a rise in the ten year treasury and with the belief the Fed may raise rates in June. Interest rate futures are indicating a raise in the June to September time period.

---

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seven years ago a retiree could find a 4% CD generating $4,000 in income from a $100k investment. Where can that retiree find that income today? The Fed has exactly said they want investors to take more risk.

---

[quote]Big Dog Investments wrote:

Higher returns come with higher risk. This is not a secret


You don't understand the meaning of risk.


Higher returns MIGHT come when you take higher risks.

So might massive losses.

---

You really dont get it wrote:

You don't understand the meaning of risk.


Higher returns MIGHT come when you take higher risks.

So might massive losses.

---

Are suckers actually born every minute?

Or are they created by hype?

---

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

My view is that domestic equity prices are stretched based on several valuation methodologies that have proven accurate over time. The Federal Reserve balance sheet has grown from $900 billion to $4.4 Trillion since the recent financial crisis. The net result of this unprecedented stimulus is to drive equity prices to record highs. The CNBC cheerleaders say the Fed "has your back." Now that the Fed appears to be moving to a rate hike the same CNBC cheerleaders cry "the economy is improving." Well, in my opinion you can't have it both ways. There is plenty of evidence that the distortions are plenty. Look at the retirees that are forced from CDs and money market into dividend paying stocks. Think of the risk they have undertaken, and at their age. It really is shamefull. Anyhow, it really doesn't matter what I think. In the end, at the point people prefer cash to equities, and that period goes for more than a few days, well at that point, the game is over. Stocks are no more than an investment that should generate cash flow. No different than buying rental property, you pay too much, the return is simply not there. For example paying 30 to 40 times last year's earnings for a cereal makers or a burrito restaurant makes no sense. I have been at thislong enough to smell a rat.

---