Down goes the Dow

Lol. Funny that you say I’m making fun of you as you continuously rip on other people’s portfolio while they’re doing well. What a joke. I’m not the one telling others to bookmark my portfolio like you do. Besides, if you actually bookmark my statement of being up over 100% from the beginning of the year. And again, from beginning of the year. Not from March lows. I’ve already realized a lot of my gains and have a lot in bond so let the market go down. I’m fine to buy even more. I feel like a broken record repeating myself with this.

Also about being employed at Amazon, my investment results are much different from my coworkers. Most sell their stocks as soon as they vest. I’ve kept a lot as well reinvested in other equity so yeah, it’s how I’ve invested.

I’m fine with stocks going up or down. Hope it goes down so I can buy more. I hate it on the up days bc I can’t buy anything.

I have no idea how XLE will be in a year or so. It’s been crap for awhile so it may go up. Probably will. Hopefully, you will sell at the right time though as I don’t know how long it will be going if at all.

It’s hilarious that you mention that your prediction of XLE may not do as well if Fed/Congress flood the market with Trillions. What world do you live in? Fed/Congress have always been involved. Christ. We don’t have Austrian Economy or live in some Ayn Rand novel. Come back to the real world.

Bummbell,

Dude, you mocked me day one. Doesn’t matter really.

Igy

Hey, it's Friday!

And where can i find some of that stuff Drumpf has been on these last several days? He seems to be having an unusually good time.

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2020 (with 22 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 20 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 19 have reported a positive revenue surprise.

S&P 500 Q4 Estimated GAAP EPS has been lowered by $1.52 in the last two weeks.

seattle prattle wrote:

Hey, it's Friday!

And where can i find some of that stuff Drumpf has been on these last several days? He seems to be having an unusually good time.

yeah but we've known that for a couple of weeks. That's been the accepted outlook for a while now.

Last i heard they were trying to cut smaller deals for just the airlines, or similar measures, though i haven't boned up on it yet.

Bummbull wrote:

What world do you live in? Fed/Congress have always been involved. Christ. We don’t have Austrian Economy or live in some Ayn Rand novel. Come back to the real world.

Ancient history ?‍♂️

The powers that be will be pushing us back into lockdowns soon and these will last for at least six months. At the end, they will have destroyed nearly all small businesses and will have added tens of millions to the homeless population States and cities have no money to provide services. A consumer economy with no consumers as everyone is broke.

The economy is already in tatters and it will get far worse.

When will the market follow?

seattle prattle wrote:

yeah but we've known that for a couple of weeks. That's been the accepted outlook for a while now.

Last i heard they were trying to cut smaller deals for just the airlines, or similar measures, though i haven't boned up on it yet.

Actually Pelosi said no airline aid without comprehensive deal that includes states. Trump is just trying to keep markets up through the election. Jawboning.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bummbell,

Dude, you mocked me day one. Doesn’t matter really.

Igy

Are you serious? You have totally lost it if you think I mocked you from day one. God, that’s hilarious. You’ve been criticizing about how I invest and how anyone else does.

The Unkle wrote:

The powers that be will be pushing us back into lockdowns soon and these will last for at least six months. At the end, they will have destroyed nearly all small businesses and will have added tens of millions to the homeless population States and cities have no money to provide services. A consumer economy with no consumers as everyone is broke.

The economy is already in tatters and it will get far worse.

When will the market follow?

Well, 2020 S&P 500 is currently trading at a GAAP PE of 39, which is the highest since the Tech Bubble. Buffett Indicator is at all time high. There is huge speculation as one can see on Robinhood, FANGMAN, and now clean energy. Only thing cheap is dirty energy. ?

[quote]Bummbull wrote:

I’m fine with stocks going up or down. Hope it goes down so I can buy more. I hate it on the up days bc I can’t buy anything.

You're a genius. Love losing money on the stocks you hold so you can buy more

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Earnie wrote:

Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2020 (with 22 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 20 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 19 have reported a positive revenue surprise.

S&P 500 Q4 Estimated GAAP EPS has been lowered by $1.52 in the last two weeks.

My post was about Q3. As for Q4, those estimates will likely go up after this very good week.

seattle prattle wrote:

Hey, it's Friday!

And where can i find some of that stuff Drumpf has been on these last several days? He seems to be having an unusually good time.

How old are you such that calling him Drumpf makes you feel good? And I’m sure you somehow think you’re clever too. You leftists are the biggest, hate-filled hypocrites I’ve ever seen.

Praying enough sane people left to re-elect President Trump and hold off the America-hating radical leftists for at least 4 more years.

Bummbull wrote:

Racket wrote:

Amazon will likely get busted. Also, all of these companies have already been crushed with antitrust lawsuits in the EU.

Matter of time

Matter of time? So, is it going to crash to $3,500 once it's above $4,500? Or, is it crashing to like $1,600, then going back up to $3,200 after a while? Or, do you mean it's going to crash down to zero?

My prediction is AMZN will be above $3,700 after Q4. They're going to crush holiday sales. With Prime Day coming up, it'll get all of the sales from early wealthy holiday shoppers. Then, sales will continue up until Christmas. Everyone's going to be shopping on Amazon. Especially this year with logistic issues with spike in online sales, are people going to trust Amazon to deliver on time or other companies?

...what? No, it's a matter of time before at least part of their vertical integration gets broken up. My guess is that it'll be AmazonBasics and rightfully so since that's a straight up anti-competitive racket (no relation to yours truly). They're also probably gonna get screwed on their delivery service.

None of this is really new, scholars have been saying anti-trust laws need to be updated for the digital age for years and cite concerns around Amazon and Google as why. The EU is already there and hit Google and Facebook and Apple with hefty fines. So yeah, it's only a matter of time with Amazon.

Idk what happens to their stock price, but personally I view Amazon as a blight on the Earth, only slightly above Facebook. They provide little of value and the only thing they're good at is being in the right place at the right time (which is admittedly very important in business). Aside from that, they have nothing of novelty. AWS is set to be surpassed by Microsoft's Azure, and their warehouses of cheap useless sh!t are second to Wal-mart and have been for pretty forever.

Love the anti-AMZN diatribe.

But where does Costco rank on the lower-than-whale-shiit scale?

To the other poster, I call him Drumpf all the time because that’s his name—not some garbage some illiterate wrote down on some immigration paper somewhere.

Same as someone I know by the name of Belvo. Ahh, that would be Bellevaux, and pronounced properly.

Nor do I respect titles, or self-created pronouns or names. I remember once this douchebag adjunct prof lawyer said that everyone called him “Ace”. Yeah that didn’t make it very far.

Great long run, lots of chromotherapy—came back and the markets hadn’t nosedived into the close! Beers tomorrow with the guys. Have a good weekend all, looks like good running weather except on a bit of the gulf coast.

can I post with a different handle wrote:

Praying enough sane people left to re-elect President Trump.

Oh, the irony!

Bummbull wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Bummbell,

Dude, you mocked me day one. Doesn’t matter really.

Igy

Are you serious? You have totally lost it if you think I mocked you from day one. God, that’s hilarious. You’ve been criticizing about how I invest and how anyone else does.

Bummbell,

OK, day three, five whatever. The car thing, working until I am 70. You sere pretty smug and nasty young man.

Igy

Earnie wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

S&P 500 Q4 Estimated GAAP EPS has been lowered by $1.52 in the last two weeks.

My post was about Q3. As for Q4, those estimates will likely go up after this very good week.

You tally up these sectors and before the crisis, they supported 32 million jobs, or about a third of the private sector workforce, and it looks to me as though half of them are not going back to their old jobs.

"And I’m not sure many people understand that amusement parks, airlines, hoteliers and restaurants cannot stay in business at 50% capacity (or even 75% in the case of restaurants).

"… As it stands, the US Chamber of Commerce said that 25% of small businesses have already shut down. Another survey by Ipsos concluded that two-thirds are still nervous about leaving their homes; 59% say they intend to remain locked down on their own until signs emerge that the virus is 'fully contained.' A YouGov/CBS poll concludes that 85% of American households say they wouldn’t get on an airplane even if they could. That’s why the industry needs a bailout!

"A Washington Post/University of Maryland poll shows that only 56% of consumers across the nation intend to shop at the supermarket, which I suppose is a continuous bullish data point for delivery services but that’s about it. Just 33% say they are comfortable entering a retail store. And a mere 22% say they are willing to dine in a sit-in restaurant.

"All these polls say basically the same thing - it will not be 'business as usual,' as the bulls will try and convince you, and the best we can hope for is a partial recovery. I mean, at best. What we had on our hands was a vertical down economic decline with job losses an order of magnitude higher than anything we have witnessed since the Great Depression. So, even as the stock market is telling you it has it all figured out, I can assure you that what we face at this very moment is a very uncertain economic future. And unfortunately, most of the longer-term risks are to the downside.

"We are in a depression - not a recession, but a depression. And I think the dynamics of a depression are different than they are in a recession because depressions invoke a secular change in behavior. Classic business cycle recessions are forgotten about within a year after they end - the scars from this one will take years to heal."

—David Rosenberg