It is always the same tune from Goldman, and Wall Street. When have they every been negative, except after the fact. Reality is the market will do fine as long as it is being fed by stimulus. The market will continue to demand more to feed the beast, while each time the growth in the economy is smaller.
agip wrote:
GS says a blue wave would be a serious upgrade over trumponomics.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biden-blue-wave-boost-growth-goldman-sachs-2020-10-1029649255
No sh!t. Wall Street is greedy enough to know a single term of Trump would be amazing (like getting those big tax breaks) but smart enough to know that a retard like Trump will just 2008 us except worse if it goes on for much longer in a second term.
Then again, that's like saying they're a responsible junkie so idk.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
You can't actually be serious. Look at the number of countries that are setting emissions and X% electric goals by 2030. Hell, car companies themselves see the writing on the walls - everyone is going electric.
Good luck with oil though
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-to-cut-up-to-9-000-jobs-11601457301Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
You can't actually be serious. Look at the number of countries that are setting emissions and X% electric goals by 2030. Hell, car companies themselves see the writing on the walls - everyone is going electric.
Good luck with oil though
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-to-cut-up-to-9-000-jobs-11601457301
Most of those countries are run by bureaucratIc tools of the left. In regards to my investment, up 6.86% in one trading day. Lets see how XLE does against MSFT, bookmark 10/2/2020. We’ll talk about it some more.
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
You can't actually be serious. Look at the number of countries that are setting emissions and X% electric goals by 2030. Hell, car companies themselves see the writing on the walls - everyone is going electric.
Good luck with oil though
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-to-cut-up-to-9-000-jobs-11601457301
Good luck yourself. Gavin Newsome, California institutes mandates for electric cars by 2035 when they have uncontrollable rolling blackouts. How do you charge those car? Duh? Plus their economy is so upside down large numbers of the population are moving to of all places, Idaho. Go back to California we don’t want lefties here! ?
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
GS says a blue wave would be a serious upgrade over trumponomics.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biden-blue-wave-boost-growth-goldman-sachs-2020-10-1029649255No sh!t. Wall Street is greedy enough to know a single term of Trump would be amazing (like getting those big tax breaks) but smart enough to know that a retard like Trump will just 2008 us except worse if it goes on for much longer in a second term.
Then again, that's like saying they're a responsible junkie so idk.
So much for your over loved tech stocks:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-markets-leaders-appear-most-vulnerable-to-bidens-tax-plan-11601803801?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/XrGpSrfG5KPush markets to new highs. Moar stimulus! From Michael Snyder:
“The following are 15 signs that America’s economic depression is accelerating as we head toward the holiday season…
#1 All 546 Regal Cinema theaters in the United States are being shut down, and right now there is no timetable for reopening them.
#2 It is being reported that AMC Entertainment (the largest movie theater chain in the U.S.) will “run out of liquidity” in 6 months.
#3 Over the weekend, I was told by someone that works in the industry that he expects most movie theaters in the country to eventually close down permanently because of this pandemic.
#4 The average rent on a one bedroom apartment in San Francisco is 20.3 percent lower than it was one year ago.
#5 During the 3rd quarter, the number of vehicles delivered by General Motors was down about 10 percent from a year ago.
#6 It is being reported that Anheuser-Busch will be laying off 400 employees in Loveland, Denver, Littleton and Colorado Springs.
#7 Allstate has just announced that they will be laying off 3,800 workers.
#8 JCPenney says that it will be cutting approximately 15,000 jobs as we approach the holiday shopping season.
#9 At least one-fourth of the 28,000 layoffs that Disney will be conducting will happen in Florida.
#10 Collectively, American Airlines and United Airlines let 32,000 employees go last week.
#11 On Thursday, we learned that another 787,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits during the previous week.
#12 Overall, more than 60 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits so far in 2020. That number is far higher than anything we have ever seen before in all of U.S. history.
#13 Retail store closings in the United States continue to surge along at a pace that is absolutely unprecedented.
#14 Bankruptcy filings in New York City have risen 40 percent so far in 2020.
#15 This number is hard to believe, but it is being reported that almost 90 percent of New York City bar and restaurant owners couldn’t pay their full rent for the month of August.“
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
You can't actually be serious. Look at the number of countries that are setting emissions and X% electric goals by 2030. Hell, car companies themselves see the writing on the walls - everyone is going electric.
Good luck with oil though
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-to-cut-up-to-9-000-jobs-11601457301Most of those countries are run by bureaucratIc tools of the left. In regards to my investment, up 6.86% in one trading day. Lets see how XLE does against MSFT, bookmark 10/2/2020. We’ll talk about it some more.
I came here to start a discussion on oil. I'm personally invested in the VDE etf. I see oil as a horrible LONG term (10+ years) investment but great medium term investment. We are moving away from fossil fuels and will eventually make the switch so that nearly all vehicles on the road are electric, but that's going to take 15 years at a bare minimum. We don't even have the infrastructure to power that kind of transition and will need to build many more power plants of various kinds in order to make widespread electric cars a reality. For now, gas is still going to be the norm for awhile. Truck sales are way up this year. I expect oil to come back to pre-covid levels within 2 years or so most likely. Given VDE and other similar etfs are still down 50%-ish from that level, a person could feasibly double their money, especially considering dividends.
All that said, I will be the first to say that there definitely is risk. If the US finally woke up and started building nuclear power plants based on 2020 technology, the shift to electric vehicles could occur MUCH faster.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Push markets to new highs. Moar stimulus! From Michael Snyder:
“The following are 15 signs that America’s economic depression is accelerating as we head toward the holiday season…
#1 All 546 Regal Cinema theaters in the United States are being shut down, and right now there is no timetable for reopening them.
#2 It is being reported that AMC Entertainment (the largest movie theater chain in the U.S.) will “run out of liquidity” in 6 months.
#3 Over the weekend, I was told by someone that works in the industry that he expects most movie theaters in the country to eventually close down permanently because of this pandemic.
#4 The average rent on a one bedroom apartment in San Francisco is 20.3 percent lower than it was one year ago.
#5 During the 3rd quarter, the number of vehicles delivered by General Motors was down about 10 percent from a year ago.
#6 It is being reported that Anheuser-Busch will be laying off 400 employees in Loveland, Denver, Littleton and Colorado Springs.
#7 Allstate has just announced that they will be laying off 3,800 workers.
#8 JCPenney says that it will be cutting approximately 15,000 jobs as we approach the holiday shopping season.
#9 At least one-fourth of the 28,000 layoffs that Disney will be conducting will happen in Florida.
#10 Collectively, American Airlines and United Airlines let 32,000 employees go last week.
#11 On Thursday, we learned that another 787,000 Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits during the previous week.
#12 Overall, more than 60 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits so far in 2020. That number is far higher than anything we have ever seen before in all of U.S. history.
#13 Retail store closings in the United States continue to surge along at a pace that is absolutely unprecedented.
#14 Bankruptcy filings in New York City have risen 40 percent so far in 2020.
#15 This number is hard to believe, but it is being reported that almost 90 percent of New York City bar and restaurant owners couldn’t pay their full rent for the month of August.“
Just an anecdote, but I went to the mall here in my town today to get a haircut, and at least 50% of the suits are unoccupied. It's kind of scary. The mall wasn't doing so great even before covid, but covid has basically killed it as well as a number of other small businesses in my local community including bars and coffee shops that have been around and been profitable for 10-20 years. An article in the newspaper said just by cancelling college sports this fall alone the community is losing out on several million dollars... Not to get into covid too much, but we've had about 1,600 confirmed cases here, a total of 6 hospitalizations, and zero deaths. Zero deaths. Is 6 hospitalizations (out of a population of 85,000 people) and zero deaths really worth destroying our local economy? I don't think so.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:So much for your over loved tech stocks:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-markets-leaders-appear-most-vulnerable-to-bidens-tax-plan-11601803801?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/XrGpSrfG5K
You know what they say... opinions are like a-holes, everybody has one! :-)
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
You can't actually be serious. Look at the number of countries that are setting emissions and X% electric goals by 2030. Hell, car companies themselves see the writing on the walls - everyone is going electric.
Good luck with oil though
https://www.wsj.com/articles/shell-to-cut-up-to-9-000-jobs-11601457301Good luck yourself. Gavin Newsome, California institutes mandates for electric cars by 2035 when they have uncontrollable rolling blackouts. How do you charge those car? Duh? Plus their economy is so upside down large numbers of the population are moving to of all places, Idaho. Go back to California we don’t want lefties here! ?
Igy is the kind of guy that buys Blockbuster stock because "all this nonsense over on-demand streaming is just hype from liberals."
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Good luck yourself. Gavin Newsome, California institutes mandates for electric cars by 2035 when they have uncontrollable rolling blackouts. How do you charge those car? Duh? Plus their economy is so upside down large numbers of the population are moving to of all places, Idaho. Go back to California we don’t want lefties here! ?
Igy is the kind of guy that buys Blockbuster stock because "all this nonsense over on-demand streaming is just hype from liberals."
And Racket is the kind of guy that buys Pets.com stock because it is the wave of the future, even though they never made a cent before going bankrupt. Hey, but they were the wave of the future, just look at Chewey. ?
wild ride wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Most of those countries are run by bureaucratIc tools of the left. In regards to my investment, up 6.86% in one trading day. Lets see how XLE does against MSFT, bookmark 10/2/2020. We’ll talk about it some more.
I came here to start a discussion on oil. I'm personally invested in the VDE etf. I see oil as a horrible LONG term (10+ years) investment but great medium term investment. We are moving away from fossil fuels and will eventually make the switch so that nearly all vehicles on the road are electric, but that's going to take 15 years at a bare minimum. We don't even have the infrastructure to power that kind of transition and will need to build many more power plants of various kinds in order to make widespread electric cars a reality. For now, gas is still going to be the norm for awhile. Truck sales are way up this year. I expect oil to come back to pre-covid levels within 2 years or so most likely. Given VDE and other similar etfs are still down 50%-ish from that level, a person could feasibly double their money, especially considering dividends.
All that said, I will be the first to say that there definitely is risk. If the US finally woke up and started building nuclear power plants based on 2020 technology, the shift to electric vehicles could occur MUCH faster.
France and China are the most nuclear power rich countries and they still import a ton of oil. Demand for oil is not just U.S. centric. Plus oil is a finite resource. The shale boom resulted in large drawdown of proven reserves. Stimulus caused imbalance of payments leads to a weaker dollar. A weaker dollar means higher prices for the commodity on exchanges. Lastly, look at the California, you destroy a state based on a theoretical social model.
On Covid, we have a resurgence in Idaho, but I don’t see a closing of the economy. Many businesses have closed and are not coming back, while others are struggling, but open. We are seeing an influx of people moving from dis-functional states on the left coast. That is keeping economy stronger than most of the country.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1313445760931856385VS-SJW-IR-TS idiot wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:So much for your over loved tech stocks:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-markets-leaders-appear-most-vulnerable-to-bidens-tax-plan-11601803801?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/XrGpSrfG5KYou know what they say... opinions are like a-holes, everybody has one! :-)
Seems to me this rally is saying we have the best of both worlds:
1) Trump isn't going to die. So no succession confusion. Market doesn't want a dead president.
2) Biden is likely going to win by a lot, so no election chaos. The winner will be obvious quickly.
3) Bidenomics is better for the economy than Trumponomics.
4) We get a vaccine in 2021 and can get back to normal politically and economically.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
No sh!t. Wall Street is greedy enough to know a single term of Trump would be amazing (like getting those big tax breaks) but smart enough to know that a retard like Trump will just 2008 us except worse if it goes on for much longer in a second term.
Then again, that's like saying they're a responsible junkie so idk.
So much for your over loved tech stocks:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-markets-leaders-appear-most-vulnerable-to-bidens-tax-plan-11601803801?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/XrGpSrfG5K
businesses don't weight tax policy very heavy in decision making. It's a factor, but a relatively small one.
I guess it’s not surprising that politics have infected this thread.
I see R as better for the markets throughout the next term.
R = stability + MIC corporate welfare + less regulation + lower tax + huge deficit spending = steady gains
D = instability + higher tax + huge deficit spending + socio-political welfare + forever stimulus = unsteady see-saw markets
Agip you actually believe polls? Seriously, convince me that D will win. I am perfectly on the fence, but would love to lean to one side or the other, it would make things easier. I have just never been convinced about poll sampling or questions.
Oil is interesting. MUCH of the whole world depends on it, it is for more than passenger cars in developed countries. It is a huge industrial chemical feedstock. Demand is now down because econ activity is down because gov’s have suppressed it through policy. Shale is a flash in the pan. Mideast oil is plentiful, high quality, and managed for the long-term.
Oil is the idiot’s fuel—burning it is cheap and easy, and proven. And the world is mostly idiots. Nuclear is sophisticated and expensive, socio-infrastructurally speaking. Both oil and coal will be important throughout our lifetimes. Nat gas as well.
Yes some developed places going with electric vehicle mandates, for which there will be a great many work-arounds based on necessity and graft. Nobody knows how that will play out. My guess is that there will be multiple systems co-existing.
You can get deals on oil now, but it’s important to buy dividend quality, IMO.
Prior to the Republican tax cut the effective S&P 500 annual tax rate was 26.5%, in 2019 that rate was 17.5%. Largely that cut went into stock buybacks. So it is naive to say it does not factor into business decision. That is just another talking point for stocks will never go down.