Down goes the Dow

they handle trump with kid gloves. They never confront him with his lies. They won't even ask him about russian bounties. Or firing all the inspector generals. Shameful conduct. It's partly because trump will ban anyone who tries that...but have some courage.

and I'm sure it's partly because of the trumpified big ratings. Trump himself talks about this in terms of Fox owing him for their high ratings and correspondingly higher ad revenue. Trump wants a cut.

Maserati wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

EDC

Holy sheet seattle that’s a big bet on EM’s, hopefully you didn’t put too much into it.

currently down 45%. The worst trade i've done in a few years. About a medium small amount, nothing to sway the balance sheets, but uncharacteristically a loser. Made worse that getting locked into a triple leveraged position is not the right way to approach them.

In the big picture, one loser that has to be understood in the context of a lot of winners, and not a major one at that.

On another note, you asked about the hardware (tech) guys like Cisco and IBM, etc. You know, i tried that in the early days of the tech/internet craze- like 1998 or thereabouts, and i found them to be consistent lagards. I recall companies like Dell, Qualcom and Marvel and Level 3, etc. I know, big differences amongst those, but i never had much luck with any of it. THe only ones that seemed to go anywhere were the chip plays, like Aoplied Materials, TSEM, and AMD. So i haven't touched them except for the chip makers.

Yeah, they just don’t have any sex appeal, and many have next to no retail name recognition. I’m sniffing around for things that have seem to have just been forgotten, but I get the sense that your experience is also true today, that they will continue to be forgotten, and will be laggards.

Regarding that 3x EM etf, those things are dangerous. I have made money on SPXL, thanks to the bubble blowing, but I don’t think I have ever held it for more than a few days. Scary stuff, I looked at the chart.

Short gold? Just spitballing... ?

i've been in triple leveraged ETFs as long term holds since the day they came out.

SPXL is not one i worry about. The small cap triple leveraged one really jumps around.

Every few weeks i do a check to make sure that the daily rebalancing they do on these things isn't getting me too far out of whack with where i would be if i were to just use a non-leveraged ETF at three times the invested capital, and if it's geting out of whack, i would liquidate. Usually it gets out of whack when there is constant up and down from one day to the next (i.e.: high volatility over successive days rather than intra-day).

They have worked well for me but they take a lot of baby-sitting, and that would probably be more than most reasonable people would care to expend.

TQQQ and TECL (Nasdaq 100 and Technology Sector ETFs, respectively) are the ones i am weighted to for the last year or so.

If you;re considering them, a couple of strategies I use is to build positions gradually, and just as importantly, never double down.

Good luck.

[quote]agip wrote:

gold up 22% in 8 weeks, all time highs.

oil soaring - back up to mid 40s.

TIPS up steadily

US stocks at near all time highs

emerging markets roaring

yield curve steepening.

This is what...a weak dollar fueled surging global economy.

How can we have a surging global economy with this pandemic raging?

Stock investors currently have faith in a vaccine by year end, the omnipotence of the Fed, the efficacy of helicopter money, and the realization of a V-shaped recovery. Bond and precious metal investors seem to be expressing an opposing view.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Stock investors currently have faith in a vaccine by year end, the omnipotence of the Fed, the efficacy of helicopter money, and the realization of a V-shaped recovery. Bond and precious metal investors seem to be expressing an opposing view.

More from the carnival barker:

Are you on drugs? I guess you are just spouting this nonsense because that’s what leftists do these days?

Don’t worry about those burning buildings or dead people. These people are peaceful.

Don’t worry about those 4000 dead old people in NY nursing homes. Cuomo is a savior.

Don’t look at that 3 year Russian hoax investigation from corrupt Democrats. Orange man bad.

Don’t believe the past 4 years of unrelenting attacks on Trump by the NYT. They are just protecting him.

Moran.

you tell me why they won't ask him face to face about russian bounties or fired IGs or any of the other dozens of scandals.

Reporters and big media are cowards - afraid of being frozen out by the WH if they confront Trump.

agip wrote:

can I post with a different handle wrote:

Are you on drugs? I guess you are just spouting this nonsense because that’s what leftists do these days?

Don’t worry about those burning buildings or dead people. These people are peaceful.

Don’t worry about those 4000 dead old people in NY nursing homes. Cuomo is a savior.

Don’t look at that 3 year Russian hoax investigation from corrupt Democrats. Orange man bad.

Don’t believe the past 4 years of unrelenting attacks on Trump by the NYT. They are just protecting him.

Moran.

you tell me why they won't ask him face to face about russian bounties or fired IGs or any of the other dozens of scandals.

Reporters and big media are cowards - afraid of being frozen out by the WH if they confront Trump.

But to your points, as my breakfast waffles toast up nicely:

Are you on drugs? I guess you are just spouting this nonsense because that’s what leftists do these days?

Nope, no drugs. I'm not even a leftist. 0-2, baby.

Don’t worry about those burning buildings or dead people. These people are peaceful.

I've been saying on these boards that the arsonists are just helping Trump get elected.

But hey guess what happened when trumpist forces retreated from Portland! The violence stopped.

Don’t worry about those 4000 dead old people in NY nursing homes. Cuomo is a savior.

everyone acknowledges NYS made serious mistakes early on. Cuomo reversed that policy. The thing people like about Cuomo is that he learns and changes and improves. Not that he is a 'savior.' And NYS has done a great, great job. Hardly any deaths in the state anymore.

Don’t look at that 3 year Russian hoax investigation from corrupt Democrats. Orange man bad.[/b[

Yup, orange man bad. He asked for help from Russia, Russia gave him help, he welcomed the help, and then he obstructed justice in an effort to stop the investigation of his crimes. Then he pardoned his fellow criminals. That's pretty bad. And the Mueller report told us all about it.

I am non-partisan, an outsider looking in upon American politics.

Agip I found your claim difficult to believe, and quickly found instances in which he was questioned by the media on both specific issues you mentioned:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/politics/trump-putin-bounties.amp.html

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/trump-twists-record-on-inspectors-general/

It would be nice if we might keep this thread to investing, as political discussion in this country never evolves, is never productive, and draws forth what I feel to be regrettable posts from all posters. Why does that happen? Because there is nowhere else to go. There is no real dialogue, no real interplay of ideas. It’s always the same, it is the very nature of the beast in the US. It’s like 2 parties that have a long history—like old neighboring countries, or an old married couple—and are hardened into their positions, and inured to the fact that there is nothing left to do but to go to war with whatever they have at the moment.

This type of interaction is why the US has slid into a cold civil war—and make mo mistake, you are there. And as in other wars, irrationality rules, and other productive efforts are marginalized into oblivion, and the higher endeavors of society are extinguished, go dormant, or migrate elsewhere as a refugee movement.

It has taken me a while to articulate this formulation of the present state, and I add it to my command-and-control economic formulation, maybe as a broader successor, a social rather than simply economic formulation. There are a great many other details that I won’t add here because I do go on.

The point for this thread is that I have been trying to figure out a way to economically navigate this situation. As in all wars, there is profit to be made, by various means. One, of course, is to stoke the war, then supply each side with arms—in this case, one of which is rhetoric.

The content is the warhead, and media channels are the delivery vehicle. There are other dimensions such as situational awareness, terminal guidance, etc, and each merits consideration.

It is an investable thesis going forward, and I already have a few ideas.

But please, let’s keep hiking past the stagnant pond, with its water that is poisonous to all.

one interview, in a controlled one-on-one situation, a month after the news broke, does not mean I am wrong. Compare to press wall to wall nonstop coverage of Hillary's emails.

Trump gets handled with kid gloves because the for-profit media know that Trump will freeze them out if reporters get too ornery.

Reference, previous discussion on defunding police and BLM movement:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/316571/black-americans-police-retain-local-presence.aspx

News entertainment has become the paradigm. It's like sitting down to watch your favorite drama on CBS now except there's a "new" episode everyday. I wouldn't expect it to drop even with trump out of office. Kind of amazing though considering other newspapers are hurting for money. Turns out actual local news is as boring as it's always been.

In my opinion (that no one asked for), NYT is pandering liberal trash except for their "World" section. WSJ is pretty good but their Editorials are so embarrassingly bad that I often wonder if the editorial board is actually 20 year olds that have just finished the first few pages of Atlas Shrugged. They also let Karl Rove write Opinion pieces all the time.

agip wrote:

one interview, in a controlled one-on-one situation, a month after the news broke, does not mean I am wrong. Compare to press wall to wall nonstop coverage of Hillary's emails.

Trump gets handled with kid gloves because the for-profit media know that Trump will freeze them out if reporters get too ornery.

and a fact check doesn't count either, maser. I'm talking press conference, filmed, trump on one side, reporters on the other, cameras running.

Liberals and conservatives are more different than they've ever been in a long time. They live in different areas of the country (rural vs urban), the share of real GDP by congressional district swings wildly in favor of blue ones, differences in education levels and median income are vast, etc, etc. It's hard to empathize with people you have seemingly nothing in common with and it's as simple as that.

Pew did a research poll a few months ago where the asked Democrats and Republicans questions about the opposite party's views, concerns, and platform. Everyone scored hilariously low.

This is why I don't play the miners anymore. They're run essentially by the mafia. It's like investing in waste management or 95% of construction companies. All mafia run.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-miners-undercount-deaths-boosting-executive-bonuses-11596706203?mod=hp_lead_pos4

Racket wrote:

This is why I don't play the miners anymore. They're run essentially by the mafia. It's like investing in waste management or 95% of construction companies. All mafia run.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-miners-undercount-deaths-boosting-executive-bonuses-11596706203?mod=hp_lead_pos4

but gold! +40% over 52 weeks.

(Tech stocks are up 50%)