Given present supply and demand characteristics, oil in the $40 range is entirely plausible. It may not stay down there for all that long (in the grand scheme of things).
This is basically what I'm thinking. My sense is oil (the futures, but I'm not so sure about the companies) will be a buy soon, but not yet--see recent IEA data about that. The market has touched rising support and technicals are oversold (but the AAII sentiment index had 45% bulls and 22% bears last week).
FED rallies are often reversed the next day, so we'll see about the market tomorrow. I see a buying opportunity assuming this week's lows hold.