the idiot wrote:
Racket wrote:Clean up your mess? No thanks, already spent a few years doing that as a grad student.
OK then, more passive aggressive cheap shots and smarmy commentary.
That's what I'm here for :D
the idiot wrote:
Racket wrote:Clean up your mess? No thanks, already spent a few years doing that as a grad student.
OK then, more passive aggressive cheap shots and smarmy commentary.
That's what I'm here for :D
Racket wrote:
the idiot wrote:
OK then, more passive aggressive cheap shots and smarmy commentary.
That's what I'm here for :D
come on youse guys shake and make up
you're two of the smartest guys around - no fighting, no fighting.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
That's what I'm here for :D
come on youse guys shake and make up
you're two of the smartest guys around - no fighting, no fighting.
Let them go at it, this is DgtD's version of the recent Asness-Taleb twitter war.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
That's what I'm here for :D
come on youse guys shake and make up
you're two of the smartest guys around - no fighting, no fighting.
Agip, what sort of economic metrics are you going to be looking at over the summer for indication of return to normalcy? I'm thinking consumer spending (obviously).
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:
come on youse guys shake and make up
you're two of the smartest guys around - no fighting, no fighting.
Let them go at it, this is DgtD's version of the recent Asness-Taleb twitter war.
fair point from another of the smartest guys
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
come on youse guys shake and make up
you're two of the smartest guys around - no fighting, no fighting.
Agip, what sort of economic metrics are you going to be looking at over the summer for indication of return to normalcy? I'm thinking consumer spending (obviously).
airline miles flown/airport traffic, oil price, tunnel traffic into NYC. Dinner reservation stats. hotel occupancy. Forms of consumer spending, to your point.
Seems to me the key to it all is if normal life shows signs of building back. If there are signs of that then the stock market will be forgiving. But if it looks like people are going to refuse to go out in public and spend money, then the market will not do well.
People will be looking at the jobs number but that's so lagging and as we saw after the financial crisis, in an aged population many millions will simply retire and not go back to work. Or just give a half-effort to find work and then go into early retirement. Not so hard to live off the fat of the land in the USA.
agip wrote:
airline miles flown/airport traffic, oil price, tunnel traffic into NYC. Dinner reservation stats. hotel occupancy. Forms of consumer spending, to your point.
I'm actually interested in consumer spending outside of those things you mentioned. I think people might be reluctant to travel via airlines and hotels for a while and it make take until 2021 to return, but the money could shift to other sectors and activities in the meantime.
As long as people can spend money on something.
Right now they’re spending the stimulus check on stock trading.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Right now they’re spending the stimulus check on stock trading.
haha! I LOL-ed :-)
agip,
You can always depend on Trump to give forward looking market advice :)
https://mobile.twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1265298666794946561
Igy
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
airline miles flown/airport traffic, oil price, tunnel traffic into NYC. Dinner reservation stats. hotel occupancy. Forms of consumer spending, to your point.
I'm actually interested in consumer spending outside of those things you mentioned. I think people might be reluctant to travel via airlines and hotels for a while and it make take until 2021 to return, but the money could shift to other sectors and activities in the meantime.
As long as people can spend money on something.
interesting - I'll think about that
Uh oh, we may break 25k and 3k....someone get Kudlow on CNBC....:-)
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
I'm actually interested in consumer spending outside of those things you mentioned. I think people might be reluctant to travel via airlines and hotels for a while and it make take until 2021 to return, but the money could shift to other sectors and activities in the meantime.
As long as people can spend money on something.
interesting - I'll think about that
Racketo you might find this interesting.
its economic thesis: Covid is like a hurricane. Eveything shuts down for a week. But little is ruined forever - businesses reopen, people are rehired quickly. So this will be the same - we'll have stunningly enormous job gains in July, August, September.
its political thesis: Great for trump. He'll be able to say that he presided over the biggest gain in jobs in the history of the united states. Just in time for the election.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/26/2020-election-democrats-281470agip wrote:its political thesis: Great for trump. He'll be able to say that he presided over the biggest gain in jobs in the history of the united states. Just in time for the election.
In a regular universe, this should NOT be true, but in our upside-down universe, you know it will be...
Interesting divergence between today’s Dow versus NASDAQ performance (+2.36% and +0.78%).
the idiot wrote:
agip wrote:its political thesis: Great for trump. He'll be able to say that he presided over the biggest gain in jobs in the history of the united states. Just in time for the election.
In a regular universe, this should NOT be true, but in our upside-down universe, you know it will be...
Kind of like the stock market don’t you think?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Interesting divergence between today’s Dow versus NASDAQ performance (+2.36% and +0.78%).
Yep, noticed that. What do you make of it?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
the idiot wrote:
In a regular universe, this should NOT be true, but in our upside-down universe, you know it will be...
Kind of like the stock market don’t you think?
Igy, aren't you the one saying 'this time is different?'
It's completely normal for the stock market to face all sorts of nasty things and keep climbing.
covid and debt are bad but so were the bloody 1970s, with assassinations, poverty, powerful opec, stagflation, most of the world still an economic basket case, etc. But still the market rose. Because you put several billion people to work in a capitalist world and they will produce things of value.
point is saying 'logic demands that the market fall due to the macro things I see' is really the height of 'this time is differentism'
Rotation by institutions selling growth to retail then buying value.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Rotation by institutions selling growth to retail then buying value.Ahhhh... so I'm the sucker born this minute... Makes sense :-)
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.