Down goes the Dow

Thoughts on the corona thing? They cancelled Hong Kong marathon.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:Nine hears ago you were in the bunker kissing your ass goodbye.

?

Grow up Igy. Do your part to help raise the level of maturity in this interesting discussion.

Futures pointing to a really bad day today. is this the beginning of a crash?

Igy,

I'm near the end of Sornette's "Why Stock Markets Crash" (thanks again!), and it's been a really interesting read, all about looking for log-periodic trends in financial data leading up to crashes as a basis for their advance prediction. I haven't yet decided if it's just more chart-wizard nonsense or if there's a meaningful degree of information that can be derived. I will say, though, the recent market trends, concave-upward, bear strong resemblance to part of the pattern he describes.

Is today a good day to start putting free cash back into the market, maybe a half hour or so after the bell before bounce, or are we looking to fall off the cliff today? Inquiring minds want to know... :-)

the idiot wrote:Is today a good day to start putting free cash back into the market, maybe a half hour or so after the bell before bounce, or are we looking to fall off the cliff today? Inquiring minds want to know... :-)

I'm going to lodge my predictions:

Within the next two months (by end-March), I think the SP500 most likely loses 10 to 25 % (to 3000 or 2500, roughly), with some very, very small chance of touching 2200 (35 % drop), before course correcting and working back toward ~ 3300, +/- 500, by the end of 2020.

Sorry, typo, 3000 +/- 500 by end 2020.

In regards to my post, I first posted here 2/2015. I am assuming nine years ago he had, like many here, an attitude 180 degrees different from today. And in answer to your question since I believe this is within a few percent of the biggest asset bubble ever, no.

Thanks Igy,

I was pretty sure I knew your response, and my thoughts are reflected in my prediction (I won't be buying this dip early). That's one really pessimistic view, one fairly pessimistic view. I'm keen to hear what the perma-bulls in the group think today. :-)

2100 is the Hillary Clinton/Comey announcement low; I believe 11/4/2016. I think this is a pretty significant technical number. A significant break gets to 1550/1575 the 3/2000 and 10/2007 highs, then settles at 1,100-1,200 by fall 2021.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I think this is a pretty significant technical number.

I place absolutely zero faith (I would place negative faith in them if I could) in any of those kinds of "technical" interpretations from charts, myself.

the idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I think this is a pretty significant technical number.

I place absolutely zero faith (I would place negative faith in them if I could) in any of those kinds of "technical" interpretations from charts, myself.

Indeed. There is no real mathematical basis for it

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

In regards to my post, I first posted here 2/2015. I am assuming nine years ago he had, like many here, an attitude 180 degrees different from today.

This is exactly the issue that I (and perhaps others here) have with many of your posts. You make unfounded assumptions about people and then make commentary based on these fantasies of yours.

One of the first things a financial advisor learns is the importance of asking detailed questions of every client in order to accurately assess their situation. And we don’t insult those who have a difference of opinion with us. We still work with them.

I'm sorry, another Asian virus is not going to end this bull market. This is just traders trading.

agip wrote:

I'm sorry, another Asian virus is not going to end this bull market. This is just traders trading.

On one hand yes. On the other though...

China is in a tenuous spot. They're slowing down and the unknown house of cards that is their weird semi state controlled economy isn't exactly positioned to handle unplanned events like a giant outbreak of a highly contagious virus. My complaint about China is that it's always been a roll of the dice because no one really knows what's going on over there

agip wrote:

Looks like a very bad day Monday in the stock market...futures down a percent and change.

Over a virus tho? Seriously? We’ve had dozens of these scares and it always comes to nothing.

Well I did a bunch of selling at the the right time, for once...now what do I do?

Me too. I have not, and will not, buy this dip for a while—although I am fully confident that the PPT team has been activated, and that this, too, will be controlled and smoothed-out.

Yes, it was Ebola, and SARS, and some other swine flu, none of which amounted to much. Look at this one, something like 80 deaths on 3000 known infections. I understand that it is new, virulent, and lethal, but considering the population of those areas in CHN and the proximity in which they live, that is NOTHING. How many have died of flu in the same time. Market dump is probably algos responding to headlines about the CHN economic effects of the quarantine.

This, too, shall pass. It might be good for the markets to have blown off a little steam becore another ramp begins. I don’t sense any panic among investors or in the markets.

Another thing too, the US markets are starting to get more volatile just in general. Kinda like Japanese markets

Maserati wrote:(1) Yes, it was Ebola, and SARS, and some other swine flu, none of which amounted to much. Look at this one, something like 80 deaths on 3000 known infections. I understand that it is new, virulent, and lethal, but considering the population of those areas in CHN and the proximity in which they live, that is NOTHING. How many have died of flu in the same time.

...

(2) Market dump is probably algos responding to headlines about the CHN economic effects of the quarantine.

...

(3) This, too, shall pass. It might be good for the markets to have blown off a little steam becore another ramp begins. I don’t sense any panic among investors or in the markets.

(1) I'm not sure if it's the reporting of this one that's different, but I'll admit I'm worried about the Wuhan coronavirus in a way I have not been even worried about Zika, H1N1, SARS, ebola...

(2) I wish I had a good way to share images (I used to use tinypic) to explain the basis for my "predictions" above, but in my view, the rapid acceleration of the markets made them vulnerable to any little thing causing a change in direction. Algos? Maybe, maybe not.

(3) Like all market fluctuations, this too will pass. The big (and only important) question is how big a fluctuation (dip? crash? long bear market?) and how long before it starts upward again. I've posted my guess, keen to hear others...

I try not to make specific predictions too far out. My latest was this rise, which I pegged for the first 3 weeks of Jan—hence my recent selling. That coronavirus is happening now is just a coincidence that makes me look good—but I think the big push was done, anyway.

I do think that there will be other legs up this year, but offer no year-end predictions. +/-500 on a broad exchange is a pretty broad range, not sure if it has any value.

the idiot wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:I think this is a pretty significant technical number.

I place absolutely zero faith (I would place negative faith in them if I could) in any of those kinds of "technical" interpretations from charts, myself.

Well there is as much validity to them as your statistical analysis. The S&P 500 spent considerable time at 2000-2200 from 8/14-11/16. There is a collective memory there; that is what is important. Also, a break of 2100 wipes out all of the Trump gains; again another significant benchmark. A market fall to 1550 wipes out 20 years of index gains. We’ll get there. In fact it is necessary if you expect to get 8-10% equity returns anytime in the near future.

Maserati wrote:... +/-500 on a broad exchange is a pretty broad range, not sure if it has any value.

Somebody in this thread (Racket I think) has criticized me in the past for making similarly soft projections, but that reflects my degree of confidence, and is what it is. I don't suggest it has any particular "value" but I'm happy to compare it's predictive power (whatever it's worth) at the end of the year against anyone else's, for high stakes (personal dignity). Me and Igy still have a wager registered for the end of the year, with an imaginary $100 (his) staked against an imaginary $1000 (mine) with all of both our dignity thrown in the pot for good measure.