That's pretty much correct, from what I hear. It's always easiest to go with the flow, even if all it amounts to is circling the drain.
This is why they will halt trading on exchanges now, because it is the only way to re-set, like taking muscle relaxant for a spasm.
We're not at that point, but it has happened before, and it will happen again, especially due to new circumstances.
Down 307 now to 16,687.
At these levels, I can now begin to claim victory on all of my predictions for the year, but it's still not quite time yet to buy.
When the time does come, I will be tempted to go 3 routes: very expensive-ass diversified like BRK-A depending on pre-succession events, very cheap-ass consumer staples, and maybe gold.
Yes, gold. It's just so darned...shiny. Seriously, though, this time around, gold (physical) will be a not-insignificant part of my diversification.
Psychologically, I kind of move by calendar year. TBH, I haven't yet begun to think about 2015 in any great detail, except that the lowest point may come in Q1. Too many things will need to be resolved before the 2015 picture becomes clearer--mideast situation, Ukraine/Russia/European winter situation, US interest rate, QE taper, QE in other countries, US elections, future of Obamacare after elections, etc.
For me, it all comes down to how much money the first-world consumer has to spend, and who decides on what they spend it, individuals or government. That's where the buck stops, the ultimate goal--to deliver goods and services to the ultimate non-business end-user.
I still keep thinking of instability, bifurcation, control, liquidity, ownership costs, etc.
DJIA now down 320
Strangely quiet here, with all this action.
agip, momentum is one thing, and momentum matters--but in for a penny, in for a pound. Most are happy enough when the momentum is in the UP direction, like in 2013. There is not now any reason for complaint.
Look at it this way, if there are no gains this year, what will you have made on your much-vaunted dividends? It's probably still better than 10-year treasuries.