WiIIiam wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What? You aho.
Reported.
Thanks. I guess he’s been banned before for bad behavior, but apparently didn’t learn his lesson. He’s been kicked to the curb again for at least 24 hours, possibly longer.
WiIIiam wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What? You aho.
Reported.
agip wrote:
just 6% below the 200 day moving average on the SPX.
what the algos taketh away they giveth.
Getting above the 200 day would be a gut check for many - to cut back on stock exposure at that milestone or hang in there.
Hard to get too excited about stocks given all their problems. But they climb the wall of worry - that's what they do.
If the Fed stops raising rates, a trade deal with the Chinese is worked out and the econ data stabilized and if Brexit isn't a cluster event...that could get people more bullish.
Aho wrote:
WiIIiam wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What? You aho.
Reported.
Thanks. I guess he’s been banned before for bad behavior, but apparently didn’t learn his lesson. He’s been kicked to the curb again for at least 24 hours, possibly longer.
Aho wrote:
WiIIiam wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What? You aho.
Reported.
Thanks. I guess he’s been banned before for bad behavior, but apparently didn’t learn his lesson. He’s been kicked to the curb again for at least 24 hours, possibly longer.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Aho wrote:
WiIIiam wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What? You aho.
Reported.
Thanks. I guess he’s been banned before for bad behavior, but apparently didn’t learn his lesson. He’s been kicked to the curb again for at least 24 hours, possibly longer.
Sorry to disappoint you.
Gonna be a lot of really disappointed bulls when every company misses Q1.
Oil is currently on the way back up, over 50 a barrel and it'll likely go to 60-65 a barrel before dropping again in my opinion. US producers will be all too eager to ramp up production again now that price per barrel exceeds costs.
Short term, I see some consumer prices of "stuff" staying the same (gadgets, tech, keeping up with the Jones' kind of stuff). Globalization has been great for keeping a lot of prices low because you're not just making 10 of your product for Jack and Sally at the corner market, you're making millions of your product to sell across the global with your huge multi-national conglomerate. Assuming China comes to the table then maybe supply chains can be restored in time but China is buying less and less anyways. They're already in a bear market and their central bank has had to once again incentivize buying and boost consumer morale. Maybe it works, but I see a potential trade deal as only fixing a small part of the problem
The problem is now rising prices in things you don't buy at the mall : gas, healthcare, land, etc. That's going to put inflationary pressure on the consumer and the Fed will be forced to raise rates. Then companies that spent big on stock buybacks will wish they kept that cash on hand for actual business growth rather than shareholder rewarding as they suddenly realize getting loans wasn't as cheap as it used to be.
Racket wrote:
Gonna be a lot of really disappointed bulls when every company misses Q1.
.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Gonna be a lot of really disappointed bulls when every company misses Q1.
.
so we had an all time record xmas season and massive hiring at the same time companies were all missing targets? how does that fit together?
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Gonna be a lot of really disappointed bulls when every company misses Q1.
.
so we had an all time record xmas season and massive hiring at the same time companies were all missing targets? how does that fit together?
I'm still liking short term high yield bonds.
0-5 year maturation
almost a 6% coupon
some upside, some downside
Sure seems like a good, slightly more conservative option than stocks at this point. the short maturation gives you some protection from mass bankruptcies, you get a decent portion of the expected return of stocks...just in the coupon.
Anyway, I'm selling some stocks and buying short term high yield instead. Just to take some of the edge off a portfolio.
The bet is that the economy will muddle along and not go into recession. Stocks would not soar in that situation, but I'll be sitting, getting my 6% coupon.
agip wrote:
I'm still liking short term high yield bonds.
0-5 year maturation
almost a 6% coupon
some upside, some downside
Sure seems like a good, slightly more conservative option than stocks at this point. the short maturation gives you some protection from mass bankruptcies, you get a decent portion of the expected return of stocks...just in the coupon.
Anyway, I'm selling some stocks and buying short term high yield instead. Just to take some of the edge off a portfolio.
The bet is that the economy will muddle along and not go into recession. Stocks would not soar in that situation, but I'll be sitting, getting my 6% coupon.
Racket wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm still liking short term high yield bonds.
0-5 year maturation
almost a 6% coupon
some upside, some downside
Sure seems like a good, slightly more conservative option than stocks at this point. the short maturation gives you some protection from mass bankruptcies, you get a decent portion of the expected return of stocks...just in the coupon.
Anyway, I'm selling some stocks and buying short term high yield instead. Just to take some of the edge off a portfolio.
The bet is that the economy will muddle along and not go into recession. Stocks would not soar in that situation, but I'll be sitting, getting my 6% coupon.
I hear Argentinian debt bonds have like 50% yield. Now that's high yield!
Anyways, I hear this government shutdown might actually start affecting GDP if it doesn't get resolved by like, February 1st. Also there's something like $500 million in rent/mortgage due this month from workers that won't get paid.
Lots of junk bonds need to be rolled over agip
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-maturity-wall-looms-refinancing-risk-for-junk-bond-market-hits-nine-year-high-says-moodys-2019-01-09
Speaking of rolling over, when do the markets start rolling over again? Level or reason?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Speaking of rolling over, when do the markets start rolling over again? Level or reason?
What was the recent low 2,450 or thereabout? I would bet a retest.
Opps 2,351....that becomes the target with 2,650 on the upside.....
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Opps 2,351....that becomes the target with 2,650 on the upside.....
It is weird but more characteristic of a Bear Market, so odds for a reversal and re-test of the lows are high.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:It is weird but more characteristic of a Bear Market, so odds for a reversal and re-test of the lows are high.