OK, you said I lied repeatedly.
Prove one lie.
You can’t.
Who is the ass?
OK, you said I lied repeatedly.
Prove one lie.
You can’t.
Who is the ass?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, you said I lied repeatedly.
Prove one lie.
You can’t.
Who is the ass?
Are you completely retarded? Your lies were exposed by both agip and myself in the last two days. Everyone knows it. Your obstinant denial is laughable. You are the ass.
your turn wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, you said I lied repeatedly.
Prove one lie.
You can’t.
Who is the ass?
Are you completely retarded? Your lies were exposed by both agip and myself in the last two days. Everyone knows it. Your obstinant denial is laughable. You are the ass.
No, you just level accusations because you are a loser of no substance. What’s with the agip deal? Is he your crutch? Let him speak for himself if I lied. He won’t because I have never lied.
your turn wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
OK, you said I lied repeatedly.
Prove one lie.
You can’t.
Who is the ass?
Are you completely retarded? Your lies were exposed by both agip and myself in the last two days. Everyone knows it. Your obstinant denial is laughable. You are the ass.
Oh, I forgot to mention, you don’t even have enough integrity to use a consistent registered handle. How many handles have you used over the past month? Talk about a lying piece of crap.
your turn wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Huh? The only one lying or delusional is you. Perhaps you are just stupid? Heck I am not a psychiatrist.
You have repeatedly lied and been exposed for your serial dishonesty. Everyone reading this thread has seen the irrefutable evidence. Yet you continue your ill-advised charade. And you wonder why people don’t like you.
Serial dishonesty? Ill advised charade?
What kind of ahole uses the English language so poorly?
I'm pretty sure Germany is gonna get one of their own appointed as head of the ECB and then they'll quietly take care of Deutsche Bank. That's my theory at least.
I think you vastly underestimate the power of the status quo and "auto-pilot." Trump's whole presidency has basically been an exercise of of how well the US can manage on coasting power alone. There's a lot of people with a lot of money who like the status quo (for better or worse) and they're not gonna give that up without a careful and clever fight. Trump is not careful, nor is he clever
Muncha wrote:
your turn wrote:
You have repeatedly lied and been exposed for your serial dishonesty. Everyone reading this thread has seen the irrefutable evidence. Yet you continue your ill-advised charade. And you wonder why people don’t like you.
Serial dishonesty? Ill advised charade?
What kind of ahole uses the English language so poorly?
That’s easy to answer. Just look in the mirror.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Well there's a thread on Letsrun asking about a bear market. If that's not a buy signal I don't know what is.
How many buy signals have you had lately that turned into sell signals?
I don't know, probably 100 per day? I'm an options and futures day trader, we blow with the wind on the 1 second charts. Green candle shows up -> next stop Dow 30k. Red candle shows up -> short everything in sight, we're all doomed.
The cool thing about options and futures is that you can make money quickly in either direction and so we wish the best for everyone whether they're long or short! We're all just trying to make money here
agip wrote:
Isn't the problem that China told its people not to buy Apple phones, but instead buy Chinese phones? This happened before when China was in a spat with Japan - the chinese people stopped buying japanese cars en masse.
Apple has a problem of large numbers and it's just a gadget maker, subject to getting beat by a better mousetrap. It hasn't been a market leader for years. Not a huge deal
I think the trade wars are over 50% of this. Markets and business depend on consistency. if trump can decide overnight that your raw materials will be 25% higher, or that your service will be banned from China...it sort of puts a chill on your future plans. Which is how recessions start.
Trump is a f'in moran and the business world is figuring that out.
Yeah I get that, and I'd do the same with Chinese smart phones. I'd never buy one of those because I don't wanna be spied on and also screw China. So I'm sure they feel the same to some extent.
I don't think it's worth divvying up percentages between trade war and interest rate hikes are doing to the market and which one has more effect, but it's pretty clear that this market is at a big crossroads. I am constantly worried what a recession in Europe will bring.
Anyways, wage and unemployment numbers today! Remember almost a year ago when wages came in too hot and basically triggered this mess?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Oh, I forgot to mention, you don’t even have enough integrity to use a consistent registered handle. How many handles have you used over the past month? Talk about a lying piece of crap.
I don’t understand your infatuation with having a registered handle. What difference does it make? Many of us, including you, have used different handles at times. If that makes one a liar, then you and I are both guilty.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What’s with the agip deal? Is he your crutch? Let him speak for himself if I lied. He won’t because I have never lied.
He already spoke.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
EPS has peaked this cycle. Fed in a box. Global economy in decline.
Igy
EPS *growth* has peaked in this cycle, but not EPS.
Global economy is not in decline - it is growing, albeit slower.
Thus spake agithrustra.
Because so much of my money and my clients' money is in bonds I've been watching the bond market very closely.
Absolute panic stampede riot last few days into buying US treasuries. I was right to dump them - they fell back down in price today. Bond buyers are typically more mild than stock buyers...for them to stampede like that, making treasury prices go parabolic...that's a remarkable amount of panic.
Could be a climax of fear, is what I'm saying.
Today, very notably, high yield bonds are soaring in price - they've been quiet even during the stock rallies we've had.
and treasuries are falling hard.
both suggest comfort with risk that we haven't seen for a while.
maybe this jobs figure will calm the markets, along with a solution to the trade wars.
again, bond buyers are less passionate than stock...for high yield to get this big push is pretty bullish for stocks, I think.
Not convinced until the market starts pricing in Fed rate hikes for 2019. Still holding at zero rate hikes per Fed funds futures which is just dumb. Wages beat expectations which is exactly what set off a huge dump last February. Bond traders are being forced into stampede buy/sell mode to make room and provide money for all the fund re-balancing going, that's my take on it.
Source : I know a bond trader at Vanguard and he told me so
here's the thing. Why in the world is the ultra short fed funds rate higher or about the same as the 3,5,7, year treasury rate? The market has voted with its feet that the economy is slowing and inflation is a non-factor. Sure the market could be wrong. But it doesn't make much sense for an overnight rate to be higher than a 5 year rate decided by the free market.
for the fed to blithely ignore what trillions of dollars is saying and keep raising its rate...that would be major chutzpah. That's why the odds of further rate hikes are so against it happening. The market driven rates are saying the Fed is being too aggressive here.
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
How many buy signals have you had lately that turned into sell signals?
I don't know, probably 100 per day? I'm an options and futures day trader, we blow with the wind on the 1 second charts. Green candle shows up -> next stop Dow 30k. Red candle shows up -> short everything in sight, we're all doomed.
The cool thing about options and futures is that you can make money quickly in either direction and so we wish the best for everyone whether they're long or short! We're all just trying to make money here
I would think with you being an intelligent person that you must understand that large numbers of people are doing exactly the same thing. Such herding behavior is bound to have severe downside showing how foolish this is.
Muncha wrote:
your turn wrote:
You have repeatedly lied and been exposed for your serial dishonesty. Everyone reading this thread has seen the irrefutable evidence. Yet you continue your ill-advised charade. And you wonder why people don’t like you.
Serial dishonesty? Ill advised charade?
What kind of ahole uses the English language so poorly?
And you more than slightly mentally disturbed. You really should seek professional help, but you have been told that before.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
I don't know, probably 100 per day? I'm an options and futures day trader, we blow with the wind on the 1 second charts. Green candle shows up -> next stop Dow 30k. Red candle shows up -> short everything in sight, we're all doomed.
The cool thing about options and futures is that you can make money quickly in either direction and so we wish the best for everyone whether they're long or short! We're all just trying to make money here
I would think with you being an intelligent person that you must understand that large numbers of people are doing exactly the same thing. Such herding behavior is bound to have severe downside showing how foolish this is.
The herd is foolish but they dictate where the money goes. I open small positions and get out early. I'm not trying to make some huge stake in one direction or the other, but the Nasdaq has moved like 250 points every day and in every direction for the past week. If there's a huge downside then I'll ride that all the way down too!
sssssssssssqqqqqqqqquuuuuuuuuueeeeeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeeeeeeee
after the pain I've absorbed for 3 months, I plan to enjoy today and I don't want any guff from anyone.
“Comfort with risk”.
Almost.
“Comfort with poorly-manageable risk”, I would say.
I, for instance, have a low such comfort. I knew this bounce would happen today, and I also knew that I wouldn’t trade it. Sounds stupid at first, but I don’t “need” the money, so for me the reward side is diminished.
But “everybody else” is different, they have been conditioned to perceive the risk as much lower, and to expect that there will be gain and that it will be preserved in reasonably short order.
Racket I was the first one on here, years before you got here, to articulate the new management of the “markets”, and its strengths and weaknesses. I do not underestimate its depth. It is now double-faceted to achieve 2 objectives: to produce big daily swings that inure to the benefit of intermediaries and traders with half a brain, and to produce a slow overall creep northward, relative to “economic indicators”.
Not believing in either the benevolence or righteousness of government, I have mostly been doing other things with my money since 2016. “Trusting in government” has never panned out for me—it is the reason I became an attorney. Belief in the idea that innovative entrepreneurial effort should be both protected and rewarded is why I became a patent attorney.
What I see is a parade of potential clients who have “trusted government” in some way, only to have been disappointed, and now they want my help. Granted this is a skewed sample and not necessarily representative of the larger whole, but I know how systems break, how they fail, and what happens next.
There comes a point at which “the law” is practically useless in view of power, and those who have something to lose and those who can, need to prepare for this situation. I have. Not being in the markets at the moment is part of that preparedness.
But there is money to be made, and lots of it. Pretty easily, too. Some will make their fortunes in this era, as long as they never lose sight of the fact that they are always vulnerable.
agip wrote:
here's the thing. Why in the world is the ultra short fed funds rate higher or about the same as the 3,5,7, year treasury rate? The market has voted with its feet that the economy is slowing and inflation is a non-factor. Sure the market could be wrong. But it doesn't make much sense for an overnight rate to be higher than a 5 year rate decided by the free market.
for the fed to blithely ignore what trillions of dollars is saying and keep raising its rate...that would be major chutzpah. That's why the odds of further rate hikes are so against it happening. The market driven rates are saying the Fed is being too aggressive here.
It seems to me that given strong jobs and strong wages, the broad American economy is doing well, and that's what the Fed should care about. The only part that isn't doing so well is the stock markets because they're pissed higher rates means they'll only get a 1 million dollar bonus check instead of a 2 million dollar bonus check.
I mean, this should be the absolute golden opportunity for the middle class. Strong jobs, strong wages, and affordable stocks to get in on.