At the moment looks weak across all markets.....
At the moment looks weak across all markets.....
Well gentlemen, looks like this is it. Futures couldn't be more red. Down goes the Dow indeed, and the financial crisis is upon us. I just want you all to know that after I sell my SPY puts and UVXY call spread tomorrow morning, you'll all be invited to sip champagne with me on my new yacht. Get that Maserati guy too, and Flagpole.
Not me, I have invested in hot dogs.
why cash out now? Don't you think there's more downside to come?
More again wrote:
Looks like Euro markets got hit pretty hard today.
Asia too.
Far worse today
Far worse today wrote:
More again wrote:
Looks like Euro markets got hit pretty hard today.
Asia too.
Far worse today
Might be fun to try to time one of these short lived, fake rallies like we have historically seen. Like the one last week.
Maybe get in tonite after the bloodshed and then out again at some point tomorrow.
Not for me though
seattle prattle wrote:
why cash out now? Don't you think there's more downside to come?
I like the way you think. VXX was over $50 back in February when that correction hit/ If premiums aren't too bad I'll roll everything into a $50-$55 call spread and pray for either a 2000 point single day rally into a new golden age or the end of times.
PPT not gonna have enough money to protect the indices today.
I think the question for traders is: How well have you done since the market peak September 20th? I would assume it has become increasingly difficult trading the margins.
I'm wondering if the Chinese government is moving against US markets - to get leverage against Trump in the trade wars. If we go into a bear market I'm sure Trump's rich cronies will be screaming at him to make concessions, do anything. Trump's cronies do not like losing millions of dollars.
I'm not sure what the mechanics of that would be - but a sovereign gov't would certainly have the means to use highly leveraged instruments to knock markets down.
I'm just spitballing - not an actual guess.
Anyway, we'll be testing cycle lows. Europe is down almost 20% from its highs in some markets...I suppose we'll do the same. Ouch.
...but keep in mind that a balanced portfolio of us stocks and bonds is up a percent for the year. And US stocks are up 2% for the year.
A positive year is hardly serious problem, esp coming after 2017, which was +21%. Average them out and we get the regular 10%ish.
Europe is legit not looking good right now. The EU is really gonna have it's hands full now.
Racket wrote:
Europe is legit not looking good right now. The EU is really gonna have it's hands full now.
ECB bought Trillions of Euro bonds for what? Well “what” is the payback that is starting to unravel an idiotic policy that ran counter to common sense let alone economics.
Maybe should post this in the Trump thread but a major bear market is the last thing our allies across the pond needs. I mean Italy is at hilarious levels of debt, Macron in France is under intense pressure, and then there's all that Brexit stuff, and of course the rising tide of extreme nationalism from over-extending themselves on taking in refugees.
Collusion or not, Putin has to be very happy about this substantial weakening.
Racket wrote:
Collusion or not, Putin has to be very happy about this substantial weakening.
Putin's main concern is keeping oil prices high - and a recession would do the opposite of that. So yeah he'll be glad politically that the west is struggling, but he'll be in deep merde if oil gets back to the $20s or $30s. Or $40s. Which it would if the west goes into recession.
Oil is half of Russian federal revenues.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Racket wrote:
Europe is legit not looking good right now. The EU is really gonna have it's hands full now.
ECB bought Trillions of Euro bonds for what? Well “what” is the payback that is starting to unravel an idiotic policy that ran counter to common sense let alone economics.
for what? for the solid economic growth the eurozone has had.
not sure how keeping interest rates low to kick economic growth is counter to common sense or economics.
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
Collusion or not, Putin has to be very happy about this substantial weakening.
Putin's main concern is keeping oil prices high - and a recession would do the opposite of that. So yeah he'll be glad politically that the west is struggling, but he'll be in deep merde if oil gets back to the $20s or $30s. Or $40s. Which it would if the west goes into recession.
Oil is half of Russian federal revenues.
Thought they were pumping nat gas these days? Either way, I learned my lesson on playing oil. Prefer not to place bets on a commodity controlled by Russians and Saudi princes
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Idiot here wrote:
Igy the guy’s comment is totally reasonable. Showing the point declines is completely meaningless, the percentage change is the useful metric. No need to be snippy
Understood, the comment relates to the handle. Sorry inside joke.
I don’t get it.
Is the "buy the dip" mentality still strong out there or is everyone giving up? Need SPY to break 260 pls
Racket wrote:
Is the "buy the dip" mentality still strong out there or is everyone giving up? Need SPY to break 260 pls
remember that the algos don't just sell...they buy too, and they can buy a lot.
my understanding is that the algos work on probabilities...when they see something that increases the odds of a lower stock price.,..they short.
when they see something that increases the odds of a higher stock price...they buy.
The VIX at 25 right now is starting to tilt toward something that suggests higher stock prices. A VIX at 27 or 28 would bring a lot of algo buying.
So the point is that it's not all psychology...it's doing something before the algos get to it before you.
So if the algos buy at vix 26, you might want to buy at vix 25.