Two of eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 5, 2018. The top performer this year is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.37%. In second is our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.42%. In third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.80%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 19.40%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/05/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=KoG8Sul6du2DMq0h%2Fzy%2Ff8wiYoRAQt0R3ns0fZNnoquj6sMusD5OSrGyBmP1cuHa&bt_ts=1541505110666
Down goes the Dow
Non-Running
Finance/Jobs
Report Thread
You are reporting this thread to the moderators for review and possible removal from the forum.
-
-
Jose Canucee wrote:
agip wrote:
Jose Canucee wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.
I don’t understand “mean invert”. I googled it, but came up empty. Can you explain?
I'm sure he means that markets will not just go back to a median level of valuation but go well below it. Meaning the market will drop far more than just enough to get to normal valuations.
Maybe. But why use the word “mean” then?
Means, your account will go down below the mean. In other words you will lose more money than you think. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Jose Canucee wrote:
agip wrote:
Jose Canucee wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.
I don’t understand “mean invert”. I googled it, but came up empty. Can you explain?
I'm sure he means that markets will not just go back to a median level of valuation but go well below it. Meaning the market will drop far more than just enough to get to normal valuations.
Maybe. But why use the word “mean” then?
Means, your account will go down below the mean. In other words you will lose more money than you think.
I think it’s a poor choice of words. The word “invert” is sufficient to express a catastrophic loss. Including “mean” confuses your intent. I think you should stick with traditional phrasing instead of making up your own. -
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 5, 2018. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.37%. In second is the 12 Month CD at 2.65%, third the 6 Momth T-Bill at 2.45% and languishing in fourth our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.42%. In fifth is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.80%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 19.40%. Safe money is looking smart.
https://www.adviserintrorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/05/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=KoG8Sul6du2DMq0h%2Fzy%2Ff8wiYoRAQt0R3ns0fZNnoquj6sMusD5OSrGyBmP1cuHa&bt_ts=1541505110666 -
Jose Canucee wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Jose Canucee wrote:
agip wrote:
Jose Canucee wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.
I don’t understand “mean invert”. I googled it, but came up empty. Can you explain?
I'm sure he means that markets will not just go back to a median level of valuation but go well below it. Meaning the market will drop far more than just enough to get to normal valuations.
Maybe. But why use the word “mean” then?
Means, your account will go down below the mean. In other words you will lose more money than you think.
I think it’s a poor choice of words. The word “invert” is sufficient to express a catastrophic loss. Including “mean” confuses your intent. I think you should stick with traditional phrasing instead of making up your own.
No, I think not. You will understand the import of the phrase “mean invert” soon enough. -
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:
Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 5, 2018. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.37%. In second is the 12 Month CD at 2.65%, third the 6 Momth T-Bill at 2.45% and languishing in fourth our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.42%. In fifth is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.80%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 19.40%. Safe money is looking smart.
https://www.adviserintrorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/05/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=KoG8Sul6du2DMq0h%2Fzy%2Ff8wiYoRAQt0R3ns0fZNnoquj6sMusD5OSrGyBmP1cuHa&bt_ts=1541505110666
That’s not a legitimate comparison since the CD and T-Bill numbers are not YTD figures. You obviously don’t know the difference. -
Yea but the other Portia girl’s numbers have been shrinking since February while the Porsche guy’s stuff keeps going up.
-
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Yea but the other Portia girl’s numbers have been shrinking since February while the Porsche guy’s stuff keeps going up.
Actually her S&P numbers have rebounded. They were negative last week and now are #2. -
No that is not true, her S&P 500 trails even a six month T-Bill.
-
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No that is not true, her S&P 500 trails even a six month T-Bill.
Not YTD which is what the original post is about. -
Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.
-
It will be fun to see the loon Maxine Waters head the Financial Services Committee. So much for reasonable deregulation and common sense.
-
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.
Based on your other posts in this thread, I agree that your prediction is worth nothing. It’s nice of you to admit it. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.
See my previous post. Stock market has been up for 12 months after midterms for every midterm election since WW2. Heed my warning now : Dow to 30k by end of next summer. Get in while you can. -
Racket wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.
See my previous post. Stock market has been up for 12 months after midterms for every midterm election since WW2. Heed my warning now : Dow to 30k by end of next summer. Get in while you can.
Agreed. The Dems taking over the House is bullish. Hopefully you all bought on the recent dip.
Go, Huskers! -
DHI, home builder, reports tomorrow morning. If you missed out on Zillow puts, now's your chance to go short on these guys. I'd say there's a 0% chance of them reporting positive news.
-
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
No, I think not. You will understand the import of the phrase “mean invert” soon enough.
No need for concern. We know "SOON" for him is at least 4 years. -
And just like that we're back above the 200 day, on the SPX.
I was one day away from doing some risk reduction sales. Risk control is a serious problem when markets are this volatile. Anyway, whee. -
Racket wrote:
DHI, home builder, reports tomorrow morning. If you missed out on Zillow puts, now's your chance to go short on these guys. I'd say there's a 0% chance of them reporting positive news.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)
36.81-0.68 (-1.81%)
As of 10:28AM EST. Market open.
ok decent call kudos -
agip wrote:
Racket wrote:
DHI, home builder, reports tomorrow morning. If you missed out on Zillow puts, now's your chance to go short on these guys. I'd say there's a 0% chance of them reporting positive news.
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)
36.81-0.68 (-1.81%)
As of 10:28AM EST. Market open.
ok decent call kudos
Thanks!
My Zillow puts right now are more volatile than a McDonald's quarter-pounder deprived Donald Trump at 3 am with a fully charged phone battery.
