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Jose Canucee wrote:

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agip wrote:

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Jose Canucee wrote:

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.

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I don’t understand “mean invert”. I googled it, but came up empty. Can you explain?

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I'm sure he means that markets will not just go back to a median level of valuation but go well below it. Meaning the market will drop far more than just enough to get to normal valuations.

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Maybe. But why use the word “mean” then?

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

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Jose Canucee wrote:

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agip wrote:

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Jose Canucee wrote:

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.

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I don’t understand “mean invert”. I googled it, but came up empty. Can you explain?

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I'm sure he means that markets will not just go back to a median level of valuation but go well below it. Meaning the market will drop far more than just enough to get to normal valuations.

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Maybe. But why use the word “mean” then?

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Means, your account will go down below the mean. In other words you will lose more money than you think.

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2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:

Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 5, 2018. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.37%. In second is the 12 Month CD at 2.65%, third the 6 Momth T-Bill at 2.45% and languishing in fourth our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.42%. In fifth is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.80%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 19.40%. Safe money is looking smart.

https://www.adviserintrorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/05/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=KoG8Sul6du2DMq0h%2Fzy%2Ff8wiYoRAQt0R3ns0fZNnoquj6sMusD5OSrGyBmP1cuHa&bt_ts=1541505110666

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Jose Canucee wrote:

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

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Jose Canucee wrote:

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agip wrote:

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Jose Canucee wrote:

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

You use non-GAAP and Foreard PE. $122.48 (LTM GAAP S&P 500 EPS ) x 16.5 (historic multiple) = 2,020 (fair value), or about 35% lower than today’s close. The $122.48 number is inflated by high margins from low cost of funds, tax cuts, low labor costs, and low material costs. Those tail winds have likely peaked. Lastly, markets don’t just mean revert, they mean invert. I believe central bank liquidity driven speculation has so distorted the market the end will likely drive the S&P 500 down to 900-1,100.

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I don’t understand “mean invert”. I googled it, but came up empty. Can you explain?

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I'm sure he means that markets will not just go back to a median level of valuation but go well below it. Meaning the market will drop far more than just enough to get to normal valuations.

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Maybe. But why use the word “mean” then?

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Means, your account will go down below the mean. In other words you will lose more money than you think.

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I think it’s a poor choice of words. The word “invert” is sufficient to express a catastrophic loss. Including “mean” confuses your intent. I think you should stick with traditional phrasing instead of making up your own.

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2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:

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2016 Porsche Cayman wrote:

Four of eight indicators on our world watch list have posted gains through Monday, November 5, 2018. The top performer is India's BSE SENSEX with a gain of 3.37%. In second is the 12 Month CD at 2.65%, third the 6 Momth T-Bill at 2.45% and languishing in fourth our own S&P 500 with a gain of 2.42%. In fifth is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 3.80%. Coming in last is Shanghai's SSE with a loss of 19.40%. Safe money is looking smart.

https://www.adviserintrorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2018/11/05/world-markets-update?&bt_ee=KoG8Sul6du2DMq0h%2Fzy%2Ff8wiYoRAQt0R3ns0fZNnoquj6sMusD5OSrGyBmP1cuHa&bt_ts=1541505110666

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yea but the other Portia girl’s numbers have been shrinking since February while the Porsche guy’s stuff keeps going up.

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No that is not true, her S&P 500 trails even a six month T-Bill.

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.

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Racket wrote:

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Well, the S&P 500 could be down by double next week. So what is that worth? Ah, nothing.

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See my previous post. Stock market has been up for 12 months after midterms for every midterm election since WW2. Heed my warning now : Dow to 30k by end of next summer. Get in while you can.

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Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No, I think not. You will understand the import of the phrase “mean invert” soon enough.

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Racket wrote:

DHI, home builder, reports tomorrow morning. If you missed out on Zillow puts, now's your chance to go short on these guys. I'd say there's a 0% chance of them reporting positive news.

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agip wrote:

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Racket wrote:

DHI, home builder, reports tomorrow morning. If you missed out on Zillow puts, now's your chance to go short on these guys. I'd say there's a 0% chance of them reporting positive news.

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D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)

36.81-0.68 (-1.81%)
As of 10:28AM EST. Market open.
ok decent call kudos

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