Stating the obvious! wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You can thank the Fed for that.
The QEs were highly successful. Thank you, Fed.
“What hath be given, is now taketh away.”
Stating the obvious! wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You can thank the Fed for that.
The QEs were highly successful. Thank you, Fed.
“What hath be given, is now taketh away.”
QE combined with ZIRP was responsible for price support, and in that narrow sense yes, it worked by manipulating price discovery.
Those are the only 2 things I look at in thinking about the next 5 years—those and the forces that drive them. Equity valuations will go nowhere, and might even fall, without further QE and continued low rates.
Maserati,
Just remember the Fed started cutting interest rates all the way down 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 and did nothing to stem the decline. Once investors become risk adverse there will be nothing that can stop the decline. That is why debt and excessive valuations are the long term drivers of return. No different than any other asset class.
Igy
Bass Masterson wrote:
Third Grade wrote:
Could you point out exactly what is improper about the sentence? Thanks.
Here is the "sentence" (to be generous) under discussion.
"So with that being said, does that make an aggressive stock investor since 2011 that pulled out of the market in Sept. 2018 a foolish investor?"
Take a shot at it. See anything wrong?
I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again?
Since I am the one who originally attacked this very sentence and then was called on it and responded not once but twice, it would appear you are a bit of a moron.
Maybe you can show me the sentence you "think" (to use that term loosely) I was laughing at?
My God wrote:
I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again?
It's been the total topic of discussion from the guy who started posting on here in March of 2015.
You must be a newcomer.
purple martin wrote:
My God wrote:
I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again?
It's been the total topic of discussion from the guy who started posting on here in March of 2015.
You must be a newcomer.
Wow.
So many things wrong in one short post. How do you do it?
1. I did not say: "I see something wrong. You bring up a sentence that was not part of this particular discussion. Care to try again? That was A$$ Masterson.
2. The sentence in question has not "...been the total topic of discussion from the guy who started posting on here in March of 2015." That bastardization of a sentence was posted by Mellon yesterday at 12:55. I first went after it on at 2:31 yesterday and have been posting on this thread on 8/27/13 ("You must be a newcomer").
Stocks and bonds down, so cash is the superior asset class today.
Looks like HSGFX is whooping on TNA.
I didn’t buy! In part because of the mandatory holding period, but mostly because I didn’t like the pattern going into close. Will be watching closely the next 2 days with both 401k and brokerage. Last time this happened, there were further significant drops
Markets In Turmoil!
I don’t see turmoil, rather just a broad-based rotation out of out-performing equities.
However, I hope panic sets in next?
Maserati wrote:
I don’t see turmoil, rather just a broad-based rotation out of out-performing equities.
However, I hope panic sets in next?
That is the narrative, however the market cap of those stocks are not large enough to drive the market higher. I have no idea if today’s market action leads to something bigger, but the character of the market changed in February.
Agreed, at that time I think that many decided that 2018 would be the blow-off top.
Q is where is the money going? Not to bonds. I think it is just going to extinguish credit.
Turmoil won’t be evidenced until gold sales really increase, which they have not.
this is the 23rd drawdown of 5% of more of the SP500 since the end of the 2008-9 bear market.
Am I supposed to think this one is the killer?
Truth is, they all feel like the end of the world.
We were at all time highs three weeks ago.
Traders gonna trade
Bad investors gonna panic out.
Extinguish debt, that is?
the one thing I'm worried about is china playing some economic hardball in the trade wars and stepping away from the US gov't debt table. That would raise interest rates another 10-20 bps, which would hurt some.
Do they own US stocks? I'm not sure.
Maserati wrote:
Turmoil won’t be evidenced until gold sales really increase, which they have not.
that struck my brain
any evidence that gold sells off in episodes of global turmoil? Doesn't sound right to me - usually gold works as a risk hedge.
agip wrote:
this is the 23rd drawdown of 5% of more of the SP500 since the end of the 2008-9 bear market.
Am I supposed to think this one is the killer?
Truth is, they all feel like the end of the world.
We were at all time highs three weeks ago.
Traders gonna trade
Bad investors gonna panic out.
Can’t say if it is or isn’t, but the 23rd over a nine year period is telling. More relevant is most investors whether it is today or a year from now will ride the market down. It will be historic.