5k men moscow2013:Renato Canova preview

RC seems to have a fair analysis of the upcoming race.

Alberto Stretti wrote:

http://www.albertostretti.org/2013/08/5000m-men-final-preview-by-renato-canova.html

This looks about right. I don't generally do the predict races thing before hand, cos so many things can happen, someone falls etc.

I think another area of opportunity with Rupp is for Alberto to give him better race instruction, have him better focused to make moves smooth, fast, and less taxing when he does, and not let gaps develop at critical times as he always does. Mo stays drilled in with his focus and is ready to be where he wants to be to sprint and go when he does.

Rupp has to be fit enough to handle the pace the last 4 laps, then be in position for the final sprint, never gaped and ready to move on a hair triggers notice and if he finds himself in the last 200 with an opening and seeming to progress to the lead to go ahead and take and and lay it all on the like, seen him too many times hesitate and get gapped, then react, and he's then got too much space to make up...

I didn't expect him to be able to compete at this level till next year, really, so he's ahead of progress in my book and with a silver medal to boot. '''if he can't medal, then i wan to see him run a damn strong race and be in it as close to a medal as possible and a strong finish hopefully with a PR.

Should be an epic race, lots of talented guys in it.

I suspect Mo is going to get it done. THat 1500 in Monico was impressive. And he's not afraid of a fast pace here, maybe a fast pace here would be good.

Anyway, it's exciting stuff and why we watch the races.

Canova's preview is spot on. Although the race may turn out to be great (I don't think it will, though), it is not hard to predict the top places. Were Rop healthy, things would be different. In any case, I see Farah with gold, Soi with silver, and Alamirew with bronze. The only hope for the East Africans is if the heat and hard track of the 10000 took something out of Farah. But Farah has the unique capacity in this field to control the race from the front. I don't see an American in the top five, but maybe Rupp can sneak in there. What would make the race better for me is if Brendan Foster comes down with a bad cold. He has the ability to makes Tom Hammond sound almost palatable. And thanks to Alberto Stretti for posting the Canova preview.

Alberto Stretti wrote:

http://www.albertostretti.org/2013/08/5000m-men-final-preview-by-renato-canova.html

A Duck wrote:

This looks about right. I don't generally do the predict races thing before hand, cos so many things can happen, someone falls etc.

How often do people fall in the 5000? 1500, yes, but 5000?

This race is going to be the same as the 10,000. It's gonna be slow during the first 3k, 4th k decent pace but still not fast and the showdown doesn't really start until 600m out. Mo Farah for the easy win. Kenyans will think "maybe we should have pushed more earlier" afterward.

Yawn.

not so sure about this wrote:

A Duck wrote:

This looks about right. I don't generally do the predict races thing before hand, cos so many things can happen, someone falls etc.

How often do people fall in the 5000? 1500, yes, but 5000?

Well, it happened in the final in Daegu, and it just happened in the heats the other day, so I would say it does happen often.

not so sure about this wrote:

A Duck wrote:

This looks about right. I don't generally do the predict races thing before hand, cos so many things can happen, someone falls etc.

How often do people fall in the 5000? 1500, yes, but 5000?

I think A duck is A Farce like everyone else on this board but people do fall in the 5,000 all the time. Someone fell in the 10,000 this year at the WCs. Lagat halfway tripped in the OGs last year. I hate to agree w A Duck but it does happen.

I just want to add one thing. If the race is hot and or humid, that can definitely effect one or more of the top guys negatively. In addition it can kind of catapult a more middle of the road guy up to the front who is comfortable running in poor conditions.

In the past few WCs Rupp has not appeared to me to be very composed in positioning himself for the close in the 5k. He loves to jump to the front with 2 laps to go and then gets shuffled back - just wasting energy really. I'd love to see him be more patient here and trust his excellent speed in the final 300 or 400. I will be disappointed if he goes to the front at any point before 400 to go really - this has worked horribly for him at every global championship.

Do you normally predict races after they have been run, then?

I just want to add one thing. If the race is hot and or humid, that can definitely effect one or more of the top guys negatively. In addition it can kind of catapult a more middle of the road guy up to the front who is comfortable running in poor conditions.[/quote]

Affect, not effect

nice analysis but hardly genius foresight. I mean what else is going to happen? i just watched the final and it was again, as with the 10000m a predictable, mundane affair. The Kenyans and Ethiopians- despite all their "team tactics" bravado are a hopeless bunch - too afraid to even put pressure on Farah by simply getting tonthe front at any point during the last 800m - at a minimum forcing Farah to start his push 4-500m earlier than he would really prefer and applying pressure he hasn't had for a long time. Canova picked it - he didn't pick how gutless his boys would be. Again.

I'd like to see someone go hard/honest from the gun and make this an actual race rather than the usual crap that comes out of these events.