Rupp, Derrick, Ritz or True – Which One Goes Home Devastated?

Sagarin wrote:

Ritz will blitz wrote:

who called it two days ago? Ahem...

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I can't believe the lack of Ritz love. The dude looked the best of all at Pre, is rounding into the best shape of his life, can likely close under 60 with his speed,is maintaining his marathon strength, and will be stronger than Derrick or True without a doubt over 10k. He is likely ready for a low 27 right now, and will start pushing way out with Rupp. Hot day or not, it is going to be Rupp, Ritz and a Dogfight in the heat between Derrick and True...edge to Derrick in the heat.

I think most of us figured it would be Rupp, Derrick, and Ritz in some combination, with the possibility of an outlier performance, though the conditions put a damper on that. I'm a bit surprised Rupp didn't just jog in with the 5,000 heats coming up, and I'm also surprised Derrick didn't tuck into the pack early on as he has great 1,500 speed. True simply is not proven over 10,000 in championship track races. Ritz does look great, but Rupp still owns him.

Montesquieu wrote:

I wrote what's below on another thread. I wrote it when it appeared that the weather would be better, but I stick to it even now. I think Ritz will win it, but surely be right there for second behind Rupp at worst. It's worth noting, especially with Teg now in the race for real, that there is a genuine dislike between Salazar and Schumacher, and thus a desire on the part of each to have his runners best those of the other. Salazar would like nothing better than to have both Rupp and Ritz make the team ahead of Derrick and Teg, and vice-versa. Add Puskedra to the mix as someone who might help carry the early pace, and add the fact that with the hotter conditions we might have a sharply fluctuating pace, with surges here and there, and the race promises to be extremely exciting.

sp23 wrote:

Ritz will blitz wrote:

I can't believe the lack of Ritz love. The dude looked the best of all at Pre, is rounding into the best shape of his life, can likely close under 60 with his speed,is maintaining his marathon strength, and will be stronger than Derrick or True without a doubt over 10k. He is likely ready for a low 27 right now, and will start pushing way out with Rupp. Hot day or not, it is going to be Rupp, Ritz and a Dogfight in the heat between Derrick and True...edge to Derrick in the heat.

Yeah, there are a lot of really dumb guys on this thread.

I don't know if Ritzie will get there (and neither does anybody else here), but most of the 'analysis' here is just painfully dumb.

The guys who think Rupp is as likely to miss as anyone else have apparently been asleep since 2010.

The boneheads who 'know' that Ritz has no shot because the race will 'obviously' be a slow, tactical affair apparently can't grasp the fact that Ritz and Al most likely considered that problem a very long time ago (and they also apparently missed the Trials race last year).

It hasn't quite occurred to them that there's an obvious solution to that problem, and that the presence of teammate Rupp makes it much easier to address it. (And, again, they apparently failed to watch the Trials race last year.)

The idiots bashing True apparently haven't watched a single one of his races this year.

Anyone who's actually paid attention for the last six months --and has an IQ over 90-- knows several things:

1. Rupp is still the prohibitive favorite --unless he's off his game. It's true that his last two races haven't looked as dominant (though they certainly didn't look *bad*), but absent any particular knowledge of injury problems, or missed training, or sickness, or whatever, the obvious default assumption is still that he's capable of 20 seconds faster than the other three.

2. All recent evidence is that all three of the others are in very similar shape right now.

We have to judge that mostly from their recent 5K performances, and those indicate near-identical fitness for all three. We just saw Chris and Ritz run 13:08-13:09.

Those who say True is clearly a step behind, with a 13:14 best, don't know what they're talking about.

If you watched the Adidas race on Randall's Island, you know it was worth a LOT better than 13:16.

All the milers thought the wind cost them two seconds or so; how much did it cost the 10K guys?

True's 13:16 would've easily been 6 or 8 or 10 seconds faster in a mild wind.

That race was every bit as good as Chris and Ritz's races at Pre, maybe a little better.

3. We are forced to deduce their relative fitness at 10K, since we haven't seen them run the longer race for some time.

In some cases, we might have reason to think that 10K fitness could be notably better, or notably worse, than for 5.

In this case, we have no reasons to think that about any of the three guys in question.

With Ritzie, we know that he's coming off a big block of marathon training (and headed right back there in short order), and that he's always considered himself a better 10K guy.

Though he's looked great at 5K, we probably should assume, if anything, he's likely to be slightly better at 10 right now.

With Derrick and True, we've got guys with impressive mile-chops, but again guys who both have said repeatedly they consider themselves stronger at 10K, and both guys who ran great at 12K in XC a couple months back.

All three guys looked capable of 13:05-ish, on a really good day, a few weeks ago.

All three, as far as we know, have continued to train, and probably started to taper a bit, in the last few weeks, and are looking very confident.

All three seem likely to be just as fit, or possibly slightly better, at 10 than they are at 5.

Best guess is that all three could go 27:20-ish, or even a little bit better, on a real good day right now.

4. It's freaking OBVIOUS that both Chris and True have notably better closing speed than Ritz. (Those who say True lacks it really are morons. Did you guys even bother to *watch* that mile race last month? The guy *jogged* to a 3:40, and blew away the field with a 54 close, and wasn't even breathing hard. Gimme a break, already.)

5. News Flash! Ritzie KNOWS he can't close as fast as the other two. Salazar knows it too.

Ritzie might show some questionable judgment at times, but he's not a MORON. Regardless of what you may feel about AlSal, HE is clearly not a MORON.

They will obviously attempt to neutralize this disadvantage, most likely by pushing the pace.

In a 28:30 race, Ritzie will probably be blown away by the other two on the last lap. In a 27:15 race, their closing speed may fail them.

6. The pieces are all conveniently arranged for Ritzie to get exactly the race he needs. He's got Rupp to help him along, and share the work, and Rupp probably won't be terribly averse, since he expects to have to run a pretty fast race anyway (and knows that any pace they run will most likely be quite a bit more comfortable for him than for any of the others anyway).

He's also got Puskedra along, who may also be called on to offer some help (though it makes far less sense for him), as he did in the Trials last year.

(For the third time, did some of you geniuses just close your eyes during that race, or what?)

The guys who keep saying "it'll be a slow race, because, well, umm, ya know, Championship races tend to be slow" must've really been sleeping through Logic 101.

Use your brains a little, instead of just repeating stupid cliches.

All the evidence says that Ritzie *needs* a fast race, and has the circumstances in place that perfectly enable him to create it.

Do we *know* that's what'll happen? Of course not. Nobody ever knows for sure what'll happen in a race, and lots of strange things can occur.

But all the circumstances, and a little common sense, point to some obvious expectations.

If no one else wants to run fast, Ritzie and Rupp will probably cooperate to push it (maybe with a little help from Big Luke).

How fast they're likely to make it is tough to say.

Obviously, the weather may be a factor.

Yesterday, the forecast looked fairly benign; now, it's a little worse. Right now I'm seeing 76 and fairly humid, with a chance of thunderstorms, and some wind.

Probably uncomfortable enough to slow things down a bit, but maybe not enough to radically affect the race. (And, again, what's with the idiotic comments that 'we know Ritz can't handle the heat?' We do? Did any of you pinheads watch the Olympics in Beijing?)

Maybe the weather means that 13:40 or :45 is enough to take people out of their comfort zone, rather than 13:30.

So what? Same race, same plan, just a little slower.

If you're using your head, you're looking for Rupp and Ritz to push the pace, Chris and True to sit on them as long as possible.

Rupp and Ritz will hope to break the other two, and gap them, somewhere in the last 2K.

Rupp'll probably manage to ease away at some point, and Ritz will try his best. Can he drop the two younger guys? I have no idea. I'd give him slightly better than even odds, but it's an awfully tough call.

I see the four of them together, broken away from the rest of the field, at 8K.

From there on, most likely, a modest gap for Rupp, and a full-on Pre-style death march for the other three.

Some surges, some back-and-forth, and a hell of a lot of pain.

Three (assuming Rupp's on his form, and he gets away) really good, really determined, really tough, hard-working, dedicated, admirable guys, going hell bent for leather to nab two spots.

It'll be sad to see one of 'em lose.

If it plays out anything close to how it should, this will be a fantastic race.

*This* is why I love distance running.