Cain will run the 8. Salazar will not have these two competing against each other. Moser has paid her dues and there was no way Salazar would pressure her to run the 5000. I like Cain's chances in the 8. Her Pre race gives her more confidence in this event than she had before. Hell, I don't think Cain has ten individual 800s on her resume.
Would be funny if Simpson dropped down to the 800m as well since she has the auto in the 1500m.
And if you are the defending WC, you drop down...and you lose to a 17-ear-old high school girl, you might not ever live it down.
And it could happen that way.
coach d wrote:
And if you are the defending WC, you drop down...and you lose to a 17-ear-old high school girl, you might not ever live it down.
And it could happen that way.
amusing point but I still think it beats falling in some hideously slow 1500m final - and it could happen that way too!
Anyway, remains interesting to see what the various high-profile players choose to do. At this point, I'm rooting for the Martinez-Cain-Simpson all in the 800m against Montanyo scenario just because I think it will be funny if none of Martinez-Cain-Simpson contest the 1500m at USATF nationals.
And even if that happens, the women's 1500m will still be a really interesting event.
I will be really upset if Cain doesn't run the 1,500. I'd be less upset if she runs and doesn't qualify. I know I'm not Salazar but I really think she would make either and the 1,500 is one where she could make finals and contend for a medal in a slow tactical affair. Ain't no woman on the planet making Mary Cain look slow in a 4:15 race. 800s are too short to be tactical.
Simpson could run the 5000. Whatever.
I think Cain's chances are much better in the 1500m.
loveyasalazarbut wrote:
Ain't no woman on the planet making Mary Cain look slow in a 4:15 race. 800s are too short to be tactical.
Those 3:5x women might disagree
No way Cain runs the 800. The 1500 is her best event and Salazar knows this. There are three spots besides Simpson, so there's a decent chance Moser and Cain both make the team. I could see Cain, Rowbury, and Uceny fighting for the last two spots.
Please inform me who those are. Kipyegon's last three races 3:56.98-4:01-4:05 (7th).. Aregawi can run 3:56 but that doesn't mean in a tactical affair that she can close her last 100 in 12.1 like Cain did at Oxy. Beside Aregawi, Genzebe Dibaba may run the 5000 after her huge PR at 5k at Oslo. Helen Obiri ran a 3:58 but she's unproven at the distance. There have been 4 females to break 4 this year? Dibaba may well end up in 5k, Kipyegon overtrained or is peaking early, Obiri is unknown and Aregawi is the favorite. Look at 800-- Cain's run 1:59.51-- fifth in that race at Pre.. Martinez is focusing on 800.. who else has run faster than 1:59 in the 800 that's run faster than Cain in the 1500? Anyone?
Ain't no woman on the planet making Mary Cain look slow in a 4:15 race
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
That's a "race" made to order for a pile up in the last 300 meters. These are the kind of races that keep orthopedic surgeons in Porsches.
loveyasalazarbut wrote:
Please inform me who those are. Kipyegon's last three races 3:56.98-4:01-4:05 (7th).. Aregawi can run 3:56 but that doesn't mean in a tactical affair that she can close her last 100 in 12.1 like Cain did at Oxy. Beside Aregawi, Genzebe Dibaba may run the 5000 after her huge PR at 5k at Oslo. Helen Obiri ran a 3:58 but she's unproven at the distance. There have been 4 females to break 4 this year? Dibaba may well end up in 5k, Kipyegon overtrained or is peaking early, Obiri is unknown and Aregawi is the favorite. Look at 800-- Cain's run 1:59.51-- fifth in that race at Pre.. Martinez is focusing on 800.. who else has run faster than 1:59 in the 800 that's run faster than Cain in the 1500? Anyone?
12.1 at Oxy??? That's 48.4 for 400 meters???
I think you missed the 100 meters to go mark on the Oxy track. It isn't on the straightaway.
It's on the curve before the straightaway because of the extra wide curves on that track.
Your 12.1 is probably more like 80 meters to go
loveyasalazarbut wrote:
Please inform me who those are. Kipyegon's last three races 3:56.98-4:01-4:05 (7th).. Aregawi can run 3:56 but that doesn't mean in a tactical affair that she can close her last 100 in 12.1 like Cain did at Oxy. Beside Aregawi, Genzebe Dibaba may run the 5000 after her huge PR at 5k at Oslo. Helen Obiri ran a 3:58 but she's unproven at the distance. There have been 4 females to break 4 this year? Dibaba may well end up in 5k, Kipyegon overtrained or is peaking early, Obiri is unknown and Aregawi is the favorite. Look at 800-- Cain's run 1:59.51-- fifth in that race at Pre.. Martinez is focusing on 800.. who else has run faster than 1:59 in the 800 that's run faster than Cain in the 1500? Anyone?
If you can run a sub 4 1500m, then a sub 2 800m is no problem.
watch the video. She definitely closes the final 100 in low 12s. Cain has proven time and time that she's a kicker she will fare very well in a tactical race which is exactly what the WC 1500 will be. If she can make the final she may be able to kick her way to a bronze behind Aregawi and Simpson. She surprises us time after time. I won't be surprised if she makes it to the final. Hopefully she runs the 1,500. Somebody mentioned she is already registered for the World Youth final.
loveyasalazarbut wrote:
watch the video. She definitely closes the final 100 in low 12s.
hahahaha
I've raced at Oxy a million times... it has 80m straightaways and 120m curves. Cain ran 12.1 for 80m, which makes perfect sense.
coach d wrote:
And if you are the defending WC, you drop down...and you lose to a 17-ear-old high school girl, you might not ever live it down.
And it could happen that way.
Cain is not exactly just a high school girl.
Cain is a once every 50-60 years phenom.
No shame in losing to a phenom.
It happens.
Come on mayne wrote:
The 1500 is Cain's best event and Salazar knows this. There are three spots besides Simpson, so there's a decent chance Moser and Cain both make the team. I could see Cain, Rowbury, and Uceny fighting for the last two spots.
I agree with all of this but screwy things can happen in a slow, tactical 1500m - just ask Morgan Uceny.
I see Salazar having a choice:
-move Cain down to the 800m, where she has a very good chance of making the US team, some chance of making the final at worlds, but little chance of being a key player in the final at Worlds;
-keep her in the 1500m, where she could make an impact in a world final but where she will have to confront the randomness of a slow, tactical US final against runners who won't let her control the race the way she was able to at indoors.