wejo--
I got burned last year in my Olympic prediction that Bolt would lose, because I made the mistake of assuming that he would continue to compete cleanly.
Bolt has established a pattern of being maybe the best big-meet short sprint performer ever. With the exception of the 2011 WC 100m, he has been more than perfect, winning everything and setting multiple world records in 3 different events.
That pattern had already been established before the 2012 Games. His performance at the Games only reinforced it, and reinforced it big-time.
There is absolutely no reason to think that he will not repeat this pattern. Every year he comes out like this--maybe a bit faster, but still the same, except 2008 when he seemed to have been on fire. Furthermore, it takes only a month or less for him to drop to 9.6x
What we saw here is his normally healthy baseline. Do you understand what that means? Nobody else in the history of sprinting has had a sub-10 normally healthy baseline, except for maybe Powell, and he always looked to have some level of training polish, unlike Bolt.
Take Gatlin for instance. I would venture to guess that his normally healthy baseline is 10.2x Gay is incredible, but I would put him at 10.1x By this, I mean the time achievable with just some base training, and healthy. Nothing specific, but not totally "dogging it", either.
This is actually a good strategy. Sprint training is destructive when you really get going--just ask Gay. Your biggest hope is that you can get in the most important meet before you really screw up. Your biggest fear is that you will really hurt yourself at the wrong time. By maintaining normal fitness, Bolt keeps a good sub-10 base, but doesn't do anything destructive, which I think is a big reason why he shows up healthy at championship time.
Gay consistently performs well because he is consistently well-trained. He performs at or near his fully-trained potential every time he steps on the track. He has already gone 9.87 adjusted, and it is reasonable to think that he will go 9.7x this season.
Gatlin has also shown fitness, although there is certainly room for improvement with his particular race--that is, he can run his race better than he is doing now--but as last year showed, he will only get to 9.8x
Think about distance running, and when you see somebody who is out-of-shape, you see certain signs of it in their running. You know those signs, because you have probably experienced them yourself at some point.
Except for his first couple of steps, Bolt's race was entirely mediocre--and yet he just went sub-10. But, the fundamentals were all there, it's just a matter of amplifying his performance. There was nothing disastrous about his race.
Because of that, I agreed with another poster that before the year is out, he would have the capability to go 9.6x or even 9.5x, IF he gets a start like he got in this race.
Bolt has slowed a step since his 9.58, so that leaves him at 9.6x (like 9.63), OR 9.5x if he can re-create this start, because I think it was better than what he got in Berlin.
So, the basis is there, there are no real structural faults, he has shown amplification every championship year, he has more than enough time, and incredibly, he has shown improvement in one part of his race--the start.
Moscow is a long way away, in terms of cycles. He has PLENTY of time left, and he's playing it smart. Gatlin paid a physiologic price for winning in 9.94, and Bolt paid no physiologic price at all for coming second in 9.95 Every one of these performances, especially where travel is involved, occasions some wear, except on Bolt. That was nothing to him, even though he looked pained, he's not fit enough to do himself any real damage. That wasn't a sprinted 100m, that was a 100m that was run--run fast, but run, which is easy compared to sprinting, and nondestructive.
In terms of damage each time, Gatlin is unique IMHO, maybe with the exception of Collins. I have remarked before that his style is one that is very easy on the body, but difficult to do fast. One of the things needed is a body like Gatlin's--big muscles in all the right places, and svelte muscles at the extremities, calves and forearms. He is built perfectly for a 100m sprinter, maybe better than Donovan Bailey. One thing is for sure, he can keep performing at a high level using that style.
Bolt is different. He would die if he tried to re-create Gatlin's race and performance schedule. Bolt is playing it smart, so far. He is lazy, but it works. This is not distance running, where if you don't do the miles, you won't win. This is a matter of getting everything to come together at exactly the right time, which is something that generally has to be done rather quickly, because so many things can and do go wrong on the different trajectories that need to intersect--physical, mental, emotional--and yes, they all need to intersect, within a small window.
Bolt knows how this is done. In fact, he is the master.
There is no reason to suspect that this season will be any different from previous seasons.
Having said that, if he goes only 9.7x, he will be in a tough battle with Gay, and maybe with Blake if Blake re-appears. Gatlin won't get there, and will only win by default if others drop out due to injury. If ONE thing goes imperfectly, Bolt will be not a 9.6x guy, but a 9.7x guy. Everybody's luck/skill run out at some point.
This is Gay's shot, and he's lucky that it's a championship year. If he is to win with credibility, he needs to do it in a respectable time, and he knows that.