How many high school milers will break 4:00 this season?

Jersey Jeff wrote:

Yea, I think that a 20-year old would not be eligible to compete at most high schools, but I believe the high school he goes to, "St Benedicts Prep", is a different kind of high school. However, isn't it true that Cheserek is ineligible for his high school state championships?

He goes to a private school that does not compete for the NJ state championships so he can't compete.

Cheserek is 20?

That's way too old for high school records.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

to have 3-4 go under they would have to pace for a 3:55-56. Instead they will come through 3/4 in 3:01 I would guess. It just won't be fast enough and one or none will sneak under.

Disagree. These guys are all used to winning races with a big kick. I can't imagine that they are prepared to go through in 2:57 and hold it together like you suggest. When LV broke 4 two years ago, they went through 1200 in 3:01. (http://www.flotrack.org/photo/634183/coverage/238873#ad-image2)

Near even splits and a lot of guts on lap 4 are the way it needs to happen, I think.

Verzbikas came through 800 in 2:04. I doubt that will happen but even if it does, somebody could still break 4. In that case I would give saarel the advantage

The answer is one.

Andres Arroyo will win the Adidas Dream Mile outkicking Chesereck and Montoya who will both run 4:00.

many of those guys will break 4 as freshmen in college, but it will be hard for more than one to do it at this meet without proper pacing to 1320y. Four probably have the ability to do it right now, Cheserek, Arroyo, Montoya, and Saarel. Burcham would be able to do it if he's ahead of last year but I've not yet seen any evidence of that.

McGorty's got a shot for low 4 if not better as well.

Jersey Jeff wrote:[/]

Note: Lists Cheserek's birthday as Jan 1, 1993. That's certainly a made up birthday. When I got my dog, I didn't know his real birthday, so I "called" his birthday January 1st as well.

This is very common among Kenyan runners. They don't know when their actual birthday is, so they just put January 1st.

I don't think anyone will break 4 in this race. Arroyo will win in about 4:01, but noone has demonstrated the ability to run 3:59 this year. Arroyo with his 800m speed will have the best shot, but I don't think he is aerobically fit enough yet.

The Rocket. wrote:

The answer is one.

Andres Arroyo will win the Adidas Dream Mile outkicking Chesereck and Montoya who will both run 4:00.

this is probably reasonably close to what the actual outcome will be, although cheserek and montoya have yet to do anything special this year. probably look for arroyo to have a massive kick and at least challenge the 4:00 mark if he isn't well under it (my guess is 3:58 high-3:59 low), with mcgorty, montoya, saarel, malone and cheserek in that order all between 3:59 and 4:04. at most i could see three going under, but that would take exceptional pacing on the second and third laps, which these guys probably won't be willing to do. more likely one or none will break 4:00.

if you're looking for a darkhorse, go with wynne or gilley (or malone/saarel if they even count as darkhorses).

Age Group wrote:

I can't believe this isn't blowing up the boards! He's ALREADY 20+ and is still eligible!!! So, he was an 18 year old Sophomore?? My kids will graduate before they turn 18! unreal!!!

I agree with you - I was a junior in college when I was 20 years 5 months old!

u r like the sprintgeezer of distance with how stupid u sound

High School athletes should be ineligible for competition if they are older than 18.

Link wrote:

I agree with you. Cheserek and Arroyo are capable of it. Will they, though? I'm going to say 'yes'. I think a third will sneak under as well, namely, McGorty. I think that for these guys breaking 4 is more important even than winning. They'll go after it; it won't be tactical. If the weather is favorable, those three will break 4 minutes.

1. Cheserek: 3:57

2. Arroyo 3:58

3. McGorty 3:59

No way anyone beats Arroyo. Calling Arroyo 3:59.1 and Saarel 4;00.3 with Montonyo in at 4:00.6. Cheserek and co. Non factors.

This is like all those marathons with legendary fields that end up being slower than expected. Even if one of these guys is in sub-4 shape, this wouldn't be the race to do it. If someone gets an invite to the Pre Classic or a big race like that then we could possibly see one of them do it.

with guys like Montoya and Saarel being able to close in in 54 I don't see why it would be unlikely.

Is there a pacer in this race? I remember a couple of years ago there was a pacer in the girls mile. I would assume they have a pacer for this race.

Burlington Bill wrote:

Is there a pacer in this race? I remember a couple of years ago there was a pacer in the girls mile. I would assume they have a pacer for this race.

O'Toole is the pacer.

Thussss wrote:

Calling Arroyo 3:59.1 and Saarel 4;00.3 with Montonyo in at 4:00.6. Cheserek and co. Non factors.

Cheserek will be a non-factor? I'd think he's still most people's oddsoon favorite, even with Arroyo's last few months.

I think zero. However, I hope someone does at the meet on Sat since I will be there. It was exciting to see Lukas do it.