Having done this process by hand every year for the last 20 years, I have been very accurate. Now, I am doing this at a hotel before heading out to go deer hunting so this is about 98% accurate. My advice for the young coaches is to get a firm grasp on exactly the way the process is done because you may have a chance to make the NCAA and not realize it...
Autos:
Mich, MiSt, Weber, NMex, Ark, Tex, Duke, WM, Gtown, PennSt, Corn, Prov, IaSt, OKSt, Stan, Ore, FSU, Vandy
Round 1
Arizona (12 wins)
Round 2
Washington (13 wins)
Round 3
Notre Dame (2 wins) plus head to head over Yale.
Round 4
Yale (2 wins)
Round 5
Toledo (2 wins) due to winning tie-breaker over Yale at Wisco.
Round 6
UCLA (1 win) plus head to head over Minn, BC/UConn
Round 7 and 8
BC pushes in UConn (1 win each) due to head to head over SF/Davis, Minn and Wisc
Round 9
Minnesota (1 win) plus head to head over Sfran
Round 10 and 11
San Fran pushes in UC Davis (1 win) due to head to head over Minn and Wisc
Now it gets interesting…
Round 12 and 13
Butler (2 wins SF and Tol from Bubble Buster) pushes Wisconsin.
First teams not in: Villanova, Colorado, Florida.
Now....conferences are going to change this, particularly for the Big East and potentially the SEC. Doesn't really effect any other conference except MAYBE the ACC. And, obviously, the regional finishes will have an effect. This is just where we stand heading into the conference weekends.
I could be off on this so I am interested to see what the Kolas says.