You're Right!!!!! wrote:
The results are Bizarre!!! Doesn't make any sense! He should have been able to at least run in the low 7:40's at his current level of fitness. He might of just ate something bad or was tired, who knows? Sometimes he's either on fire or just hang'in on! Get'em next time!!!!!!
Guys, running is not some video game where you punch in your last result, add some small amount of randomness, and presto magic out pops your next result.
Each and every race result is affected by a myriad of factors: how you feel that day, how you recovered from your workouts, how the race unfolds, how the strategy meshes with your strengths and weaknesses, how mentally tough you are that day.
The facts are German has not run a highly competitive track race longer than 1500 in over 2 years. Nor has he had a long injury free block of base training in who knows how long.
I'm sure he's probably capable of running faster than 7:53 right now (but NOT 7:32!!!). However, the race needs to be perfect for him. Given his lack of base, then it probably needs to be an even pace or a slightly negative split pace. If he starts too fast, or surges too much, or tries to start pushing too far he, then he probably stands a good chance of blowing up.
The bigger your base, the better you are at running good when everything is not perfect for you. If you lack the base, then you really have to feel good for the day and be in a race which fits your strengths best.
I don't know what happened in Rieti, but posts here make it sound like he was leading the second group. It also sounded like the pacer went out really fast. While I personally think German should have been capable of at least 7:45 under the right conditions (maybe low 7:40's if everything went perfect for him), I also don't find it too surprising that he would blow up if he tired to go too fast. It appears that is what happened.
That said, 7:53 is not horrible. It's a poor result, but not horrible. It's the fastest he's run in 3 years, and is equivalent to about 13:40 5k and maybe a 3:41 1500. I would not be too devastated if I blew up and ran 7:53 - unless I was hoping for 7:32!!! I doubt he thought that was possible.
Those thinking he could run mid to low 7:30's where being completely unrealistic. Those thinking he is done are being premature. He'll be done if he just can not stay healthy for any period of time longer than a few months for the next 3-4 years.