Ilemy--
We all know that the majority of guys near the top will do what it takes to get to the top. Yes, that includes Americans, too. That's why I've begun to concentrate only on the egregious examples of performance improvement.
Like I said before the race started, I thought that this year's 100m final was "clean", except for Blake--"clean" meaning nothing egregious. However, upon the running of the 9.63, I would add the 9.63 Bolt to the "unclean" list.
Take a look at all the competitors apart from B&B. They all ran believable times historically, but more to the point, they all ran those times while looking like they were really trying, so much so that they grip, lose form, risk injury. In order of finish:
Gatlin--same race he has always run. still doesn't know how to run at speed. maintained all his flaws
Gay--clenched hands. tight. choppier stride, was gripping trying to keep hold of Blake.
Bailey--no start. lumbering. same race he has been running.
Martina--good race, but barely broke 10, and finished 6th. nothing special shown, just consistent form.
Thompson--same race he has always run, only a step slower. didn't even break 10.00 adjusted
Powell--stumbled at the start because he tried too hard relative to his clean ability. couldn't make up for it using his normal, deeply-flawed high-speed high-knee technique
To be fair, G&G's times stretch credibility, but only by a few hundredths, and that could be due to the "track technology" in London.
You know how I feel about Blake, aka Johnson 4.0 Bolt was clean this year until his "medical treatment" and resultant miraculous recovery in 3-4 weeks from a struggling also-ran to an invincible champion.
Too bad. A few years back, there were some races being run that exemplified good, clean times, and I posted about them here. I held out hope this year for the final, but that hope was dashed. I would rather have seen a clean Bolt run 9.75-9.78, and Blake return a positive test to leave Bolt the clean Olympic champion, but that really was never an option, and Bolt knew it.
Plus, when people are talking about progressions, it is important to do 2 things: 1) adjust for wind/altitude, and 2) throw out the times that are suspect, like Carter's 9.78, Mullings 9.80, Rodgers 9.85, Gay's 9.79, and Blake's 19.26, for starters. It's funny, even to me, that I suspect not only meets in places like Rieti (Italy being known for trickery, malfeasance, corruption, bribery), but also Lausanne (Switzerland being known for "timing"). Powell's 9.72 may have to be thrown out, too, in addition to his 9.74 and 9.78 from Rieti.
This makes some guys look particularly cleaner, notably Carter, Powell, Blake, and Gay. Suddenly it's not looking so bad for the Jamaicans.
What's most telling is the rapidity of the performance increases, even adjusting for those 2 things above. Bolt goes from an adjusted 9.91 that looked really hard, to an adjusted 9.70 that looked very smooth, in under a month. Really? Who else in the top of the men's 100m did that?
In order of finish:
Blake--9.80 to 9.82 (+.02)
Gatlin--9.89 to 9.86 (-.03)
Gay--9.95 to 9.87 (-.08)
Bailey--10.02 to 9.95 (-.07)
Martina--wasn't competing in 100m prior to Olympics
Thompson--10.03 to 10.05 (+0.2)
Powell--9.93 to oblivion (+ infinity)
The next-closest improvement to Bolt's unimaginable -0.21 is Gay's, at almost a third, -.08, which can be accounted for by the fact that he had not yet entered the land of diminishing returns in his abbreviated training for the year.
Next closest is Bailey, showing only one-third the improvement of Bolt.
Gatlin, Blake, and Thompson were about the same.
When looked at in this light, Bolt looks like he did a cycle the month before the Games. When that TOTALLY DISPROPORTIONATE performance improvement is combined with the knowledge that he was under the care of a physician (a person who has access to high-quality pharmaceuticals and with whom confidentiality attaches to communications made in furtherance of medical treatment), it REALLY looks like he did a cycle the month before the Games.
One wrinkle in this is that the guys who finished other than first in their trials (Gay, Bailey, Powell, Bolt) could be argued to not have been going as hard as they could have, and were just trying to make the team. This suggestion is contradicted by actually observing how they run in the races--in particular, Bolt looked as though he was trying to win, and said as much. It is also contradicted by the fact that Thompson finished second to Bledman, and showed no performance gain in the Games final, although it is arguable that that was because he eased up a bit when he realize he wasn't going to medal at the Games.
Ilemy, it's a shame that the Jamaicans pull this kind of stuff. Like I've said before, if everybody were clean, Bolt could still be the fastest guy around, maybe. What we know is that it would be a race, not like it is now. He would be in tight with Gatlin, Gay, Bailey, and Powell, and even Bailey--not to mention Blake, whose use I think is confined to the off-season.
Using his time from trials, he would have finished 4th, which in reality would be 3rd as Blake is juicing, and which would in a different reality be 2nd, as Gatlin has juiced and may still retain the benefits thereof.
This is the insidious nature of this: A golden Bolt is worth MILLIONS. A wooden Bolt is worth mere pennies.
There is no question in my mind that he did a high-quality cycle before the Games.