Chances to run 5k under 18:00

I had a similar progression although my junior year was slightly faster (19:30ish) and my track times were faster too but I ran 18:50 my senior year. We only ran 30mpw and I didn't run too much during the summers. If you're running consistently this summer and if your coach keeps your mileage up, you realistically could break 18.

I just finished my second year of college track and ran 16:50 running 60mpw.

Obviously everybody is different, but I see it being a realistic goal.

Your 1600m time is significantly better than your 3200 (with a 5:28, your 32 should be around 11:30-40). Than means your endurance is lacking, most likely because you've never trained and ran consistantly. Also it's most likely you won't physically mature much more (which could drop your times) because you dropped from almost 22 minutes to 20:30 with no offseason training, and then only 5 seconds the next year.

I would say that realistically, sub 18 is not very likely. Maybe try to crack 19 and if you can do that, try to break 6 minute pace, which is sub 18:38.

All right. Well, the day I ran my 12:15 was about an hour and a half after running a 5:31 1600m race, which might also explain why it was so slow. If I had more endurance it probably would have been faster either way, agreed. So I have a few mile repeat workouts in the coming weeks that will be a good indicator of the kind of shape I'm in. And once the season rolls around, I will try to beat 6 minute pace like you said to go 18:30 or less, hopefully. Thanks for the response

It seems really unlikely with your current PRs.

Sorry, man, running the 3200 after 90 minutes of rest is not that crazy. It is going to be very unlikely breaking 18 minutes but good luck. You can only try and do your best, hope you prove me wrong.

GanxBice wrote:

All right. Well, the day I ran my 12:15 was about an hour and a half after running a 5:31 1600m race, which might also explain why it was so slow. If I had more endurance it probably would have been faster either way, agreed. So I have a few mile repeat workouts in the coming weeks that will be a good indicator of the kind of shape I'm in. And once the season rolls around, I will try to beat 6 minute pace like you said to go 18:30 or less, hopefully. Thanks for the response

True, it does seem like a stretch. I'll just try to get as close to 18 as I can. It sucks being slow when there are people who run mid 17s with barely any training in the summer. But I've just got to focus and do my best, I guess.

summer miles are really really important...if you put in the effort during the summer and just run lots of easy miles you'll be set...if you do it correctly, given that you've never done it before, and build up to 40-50 a week, towards the end of the season it would definitely be doable

try to do strides at the end of your easy runs too, about 6 80m strides or so

just keep training hard!

I wouldn't count yourself out yet. It's certainly not a given that you'll be able to break 18, but since you've never trained consistently before, we have no idea what your potential could be. I say go for it! Even if you miss your goal, you should definitely at least see a very major improvement over previous years if you're consistently running 40-50mpw, and that's a worthy achievement in and of itself.

I'd advise you to focus on tempo runs for your "hard" workouts during the summer, and if you do want to do mile repeats and such, just make sure to do tham fairly controlled with pretty short rest. You don't want to do too much anaerobic stuff at this point, and that'll also help work more on your weakness, your endurance. A lot of runners with backgrounds similar to yours can get through interval workouts that indicate faster race times than they're really capable of if the rest is long enough. If you can get your tempos down to low 6's for 3 miles I'd say you're definitely in really good shape to reach your goal very soon, but even if you're nowhere near that don't worry, you're in base phase and should see steady improvement in fitness throughout the whole XC season. My 5k PR is 18:33 and when in that sort of shape I find I can usually handle 3 mile tempos at about 6:15-6:20 pace.

Good luck, and keep us updated when you do those mile repeats or any other workouts/races!

Thanks for the advice! Now, when you say three mile tempo run, are you talking about three miles that are in the middle of a longer run? If so, 6:15-6:20 will be a major ball buster. But 18:30 (your pr) is about what I'll be shooting for, so I'll definitely give that a try.

Also, would you consider five minutes to be a lot of rest for mile repeats? Last time I did them I did 3X1 mile with 5min rest (6:01, 6:05, 6:08).

As for my mileage, I'm still in the 30s but I'm afraid to increase it too sharply for fear of being injured - maybe doing doubles once or twice a week could help?

Thanks

I think you have a shot at 18:XX...but probably not 17:XX. Time is running for you this summer so I suggest you get a lot of long tempos and some progressive type runs where you start at 7:30 pace and work your way down to near top speed for the last mile.

Looking back at my logs...these were the workouts I was able to do prior to going under 18 for the first time. I am sort of a workout warrior. Keep in mind I'm 30+ years old. For reference, I went from 20:35 5K in 2010 to a 17:45 5K in fall 2011...I worked my tail off:

Here are the sub-18 indication workouts:

7x800 - 2:43, 2:50, 2:47, 2:51, 2:46, 2:48, 2:47

1 lap recovery jogs

3x1600 - 5:38, 5:44, 5:46

90 second standing rests

I agree with most people that sub-18 is probably a long shot, but it's not impossible. I am your age and first broke 18 last fall (junior year) in a road race before XC races started, running 17:55 on a very fast/flat course. For a history of my time progression, my freshman year I started out running just under 22 and my best time by the end of the year was 20:03. I didn't really run after that fall until the middle of the next summer (didn't do indoor and I play baseball in the spring), but still got in more training than before freshman year. First race was 19:58 and I got down to 18:57 by our last meet, then at a road race on Thanksgiving did well and dropped to 18:10. I ran indoor that winter but wasn't very into it. Last summer, I ran a lot more - only mid-30s/week up until late July, but from then on I was typically around 50 - and I ran that 17:55 to start off the season and improved from there. Anyway, I also had a definite indicator workout that I ran a week before breaking 18. I did 8 x 800 with equal jogging rest (the plan from my coach was to do 6-8 depending on how I felt, and I felt good) and the goal was for them to be around 2:45-2:50. My times were 2:49, 2:49, 2:47, 2:48, 2:48, 2:49, 2:50, 2:49. That workout gave me a lot of confidence that I could break 18, which had been my goal since the previous fall for that particular race, and I did. Anyway, that was what breaking 18 took for me, and I would say that anyone who can do that workout probably can run in the 17s, but even if you never get quite there you still have a shot.

BR wrote:Here are the sub-18 indication workouts:

7x800 - 2:43, 2:50, 2:47, 2:51, 2:46, 2:48, 2:47

1 lap recovery jogs

3x1600 - 5:38, 5:44, 5:46

90 second standing rests

My 5k PB is exactly one second faster than yours. Here are my predictor workouts for a sub-18:

6 x 1k in 3:33 with 2:30 jog rest

6k tempo in 24 minutes on a hilly road loop, relaxed and consciously holding back

your 7 by 800s had way too much rest. that's a 2/1 ratio. as you get faster that ratio ideally goes down.

Thanks to everyone who replied. These sub 18 indication workouts seem like an awesome way to judge my ability before a race. If I don't do it this year, I'll definitely get it next year if I keep my head in the game. I plan on doing club running at whatever college I go to, so the road to 17:xx and beyond should be good fun. Thanks again :)

ming ding xiong wrote:

BR wrote:Here are the sub-18 indication workouts:

7x800 - 2:43, 2:50, 2:47, 2:51, 2:46, 2:48, 2:47

1 lap recovery jogs

3x1600 - 5:38, 5:44, 5:46

90 second standing rests

My 5k PB is exactly one second faster than yours. Here are my predictor workouts for a sub-18:

6 x 1k in 3:33 with 2:30 jog rest

6k tempo in 24 minutes on a hilly road loop, relaxed and consciously holding back

17:45 is not my PR!...But yes...that 6K tempo is a pretty good indicator.

Once a week, the rest of the summer-run a quarter workout.

12 400 meters-82 second pace-1 minute rest. No cheating. No extra rest. If you can't finish all twelve at that pace, keep trying. Work up to it. If it's easy, shorten the rest.

Every other week, add a session of 6 800s 2:45 minutes-90 seconds rest. No cheating. No Extra Rest. As before, if you can't do all six, keep trying, work up to it. If it's easy, shorten the rest. Do the 800 session at least 2 days away from the 1/4 session that week.

On the alternate week, do a similar hill session on a quarter mile hill-if you've got one. Do only 6 repeats of quarter workout, 10%-15% slower than above, with a rest 150-200% of the duration of the run(i.e. walk or jog slowly down the hill.) If your hill is shorter than that, adjust accordingly-i.e. do 12-200s.

Once a week-(Monday morning was what my program did) run a timed 5 miler tempo. At your level, shoot for 6:20-6:30 pace miles to start. This will drop AMAZINGLY as you proceed through the season.

Superimpose these workouts on three recovery runs totaling about 15-20 miles total. Make these largely easy miles, but don't slog them out at 9 minutes. Keep them under 8 minute pace, and some around 7. Don't run further than about 7 miles in any given run. With 2 miles warm-up cool down per workout, you'll be right at 40 mpw.

This will hurt. You will be tired. Eat right, get lots of sleep-particulaly after the hard runs. Do not go out and drink beer with your buddies. Do not smoke pot. Find a friend to run with you and share your pain. You can do it though. There is no shortcut.

If your coach does not do this type of training, get up in the morning and do the 1/4 and half sessions during the season-do them on a Sunday-just do them-they are the key to success for a high school cross country runner. Total mileage means dick if you just slog out 40 mpw at 8-9 minute miles.

It's best to run the repeats on grass, if you've got it. Just measure it up with a gps, or a wheel, or a bicycle odometer.

After a month or two of this, you will find you can easily hold the paces and run 6 minute miles all day. When that happens, kick the quarters up to 80, and the halves to 2:35. And so on, and so on. Next thing you know, you'll be running 16 and change.

My school had less than 400 students-of the 200 boys in the school, around 20 ran cross-country and probably 12-15 could crack 18 minutes in a 5K in any given year. The ones that couldn't generally drank beer and smoked pot-i.e. they were not serious. This is how we trained. And this went on for nearly 40 years, under three different coaches.

LeadvilleNative wrote:

Next thing you know, you'll be running 16 and change.

That looks pretty sexy. The only thing I wonder about is why I would need 400 speed for cross country; I've heard that the fastest workout useful for XC is 800s. But your method seems to have produced results if what you say is true. And you're right, with these workouts I'll probably be puking blood by the end of the week but whatever it takes I suppose