Yall don't know German wrote:
I would say that anyone who can run in the low 3:50s as an 18 year old has a very good shot at eventually doing well on the world 1500 scene, regardless of an alleged lack of "raw speed," which no one has any evidence of whatsoever.
Yeah, except for German himself saying that he'd have a hard time hitting 50 in an open 400.
Look young lad, just watch any race German's ever run. You will NEVER see any kind of blazing speed ala Lagat, Centro, Wheating, Andrews, Webb... What you will see (when he is healthy for a stretch) is a remarkable ability to crank out even (and pretty fast) splits.
I'm a big time German fan. I've watched his races since high school. So, I am certainly not bad mouthing the kid. The reality however, is that he will never see any real success beyond college at the 1500, even if by some miracle he stays healthy for an extended period.
For the 5000 or 10000 the story is quite different. If he could stay healthy my guess is that he has as much or more talent at these distances as any American (including Rupp, Solinsky, Lomong, the 2012 Lagat [perhaps not the 2004 Lagat]...).