Webb's 3:46 turns half a decade old this coming July. He's been nationally and internationally irrelevant during the last five years since that season. Half. A. Decade. And that's during his prime age-wise.
It's also been half a decade since he last made a national team. Half. A. Decade. And that's during his prime age-wise.
He failed to make the '08 Oly team and the '09 and '11 WC teams. And that's during his prime age-wise.
It's been the same half a decade since he last hit an Oly "A" standard at any distance.
He hasn't any closer than about 5-6 seconds of his 1500 PR in the last half a decade, and that's only been 2 or three times, as I recall.
We're only about seven weeks out from the Trials, and his best 800 is 1:51. Granted, I think that will get better over the next seven weeks, but it still is what it is.
In all my years in the sport, I've never seen anyone even come close to falling as far as Webb has and who stayed down as long as Webb has (half a decade, especially during their prime) who came back to be a shadow of their previous selves.
Webb is NOT a 3:46 miler; rather, Webb HAS BEEN a 3:46 miler and has a 3:46 PR, but Bush still had a year to go in his presidency that last time that happened. Webb IS, at his very best, about a 3:55 miler for the last five years.
The last five years is actually about half of his career as a pro. That means that for half of his career (during his prime, no less) he has been, at best, a 3:55-ish miler and he could only get to even that level once in a great while during that time.
Then again, there have been very few talents - ever - like Webb. Anyone else who compiled the "record" he has the last five years or so wouldn't even be mentioned anywhere. That we still follow him, root for him, and wish to see him return to form is just a testament to his talent and the athlete that he once was, but hasn't been for many years now.
I like what I see in Webb this year because it's progress over where he's been, and progress has been something he hasn't seen in a very long time. Whatever has happened with Webb in the past, he now seems to finally be moving forward again. That progress will come in stages, and in fits and starts. We'll see progress on the aerobic front first, then progress down distance as he gets rolling.
I think there's still more room to give. If he's running 3:38 off of only 1:51, then there's endurance there still to be converted to the kind of speed-endurance needed for the middle distances. Drop that 1:51 to even 1:47 and you'll see that 3:38 become maybe 3:34, and with more gears than has now (which is essentially only one).
Trends and patterns are much, much more important than individual performances and Webb is trending nicely right now. Only time will tell how long that trend continues. So far, things look different for Webb than they have the last 4-5 years, and that's good. He's racing more, and getting a little better every week. He's been taking chunks off his times for the last month or so. The data point of that 1:51 means nothing until put in the context of his 1:54s and 1:55s in recent weeks and his 3:38 doubling back in 13:49. Right now that 1:51 by itself tells us very little. Gotta look at the whole picture, and the whole picture shows a guy with better endurance than anaerobic power right now who's getting a little more fit every week.
If Webb can make the Oly Trials 1500 final, that would be huge for him right now, even if he's DFL in the final. Making the team at this point is the stuff of Disney movies or After School Specials. But the same thing could have been said of Christian Smith in '08 and other guys at every Trials.
IF he stays healthy for a full season, whether or not he makes the team I think Webb bumps his head at around 1:47 & 3:34 this year. I can't see him getting beyond that by September 1, and again that presumes he's healthy the whole year which would be another first from the last 4-5 years. And if he could end the season at that level and go into next season healthy off of that kind of fitness, it would be huge for him.
But then again . . . this is Webb.