A recent Track Talk article with MileSplit interviewed Craig Nowak (8:49.12 at Arcadia) and he said his goal for the 2012 season is sub 4.
Last year Craig's best time in the 3200 was 9:14.87 and his 1600 PR was 4:08.67. So his line of fit is: 1600 time= 44.8159% of his 3200 time. Take that to his 8:49.12 at Arcadia and that comes out to a 3:57.13 1600 or a 3:58.5 mile.
Anyone think he's got a shot? The kid looks like a pretty good racer the way Zeneselassie and Montoya were coming back to him at Arcadia. Could the US begin a succession of sub 4s in high schol every year?
The MIleSplit article
http://www.milesplit.com/articles/83556-2012-track-chats-craig-nowak
Sadly he has commited to OK State. I'm surprised he wouldn't go to Texas with it being cheaper in state, better academically, and more of a mid distance school, not to mention having Craig Lutz as a training partner.