Why Oregon will NOT qualify for NCAAs

18th for Air Force is really 36th nationally add 18 because the 18 teams that are predicted to finish 1/2 in the region are not mentioned.

I would be shocked if Wisconsin didn't go hard for the win at Dellinger this year. They almost beat UO without Amed last year and should outduel the Ducks this year. I'm pretty sure Byrne wouldn't spend all that time and travel budget to give a moderate effort in Eugene. They will be going for the win, and, barring injury or other unforseen circumstance, I'm sure they'll get it this year.

That being said, the original poster might be under-rating the Ducks a bit to start. I'm sure they'll find a way to be competitive when it counts.

What about Brian Schraeder. He was really good in high school, and now with a year of college under his belt he could be a solid ncaa performer this year. A lot of guys struggle their freshman year, especially in big programs, but come back their next year. I don't know much about the Oregon team, but I would guess they have several other very talented guys you might be overlooking that could show up this season.

ncaa predictioner wrote:

Their 3-6 guys will compete: (Bierig is a legit freshman)

Patrick Zacharias

Kenji Bierig

Rory McLeod

Abdi Hassan

Really, as 3-6 guys you think this team can make nationals? You are counting on:

Zacharias - 8:48 3k indoors, 14:51 5k PR

Bierig - True freshman

McLeod - PR of 4:12 in the 1500, 8:33 in the 3k.

Hassan - 30th Pac 10s 2008, maybe 50th in 2009, 44th in 2010

Yeah, pretty trash. Now given the fact that Sambu is most likely redshirting, this team is complete garbage.

Please explain what makes Oregon's 3rd-6th runners any better than Arizona's

PS. Puskedra is hurt

Im all ears!!!

Also side note:

Im sorry but what McLeod does in 1.5K and 3K is not that relatable to a 10K

You know for sure Sambu is redshirting?? He is in the start list for the minnesota meet.

what makes you think puskedra won't be back by regionals if he's hurt now he's got 3 months to get into even decent shape. which makes oregons top 4 puskedra, verzbikas, stinson, and dejarnette which is a solid top 4. then you also have the rest of their huge freshman class, shrader, kwaitkowski who did DNF at the gonzaga meet, but hell probably be back, and then they also have mitch hunt and mac fleet. so if you really think they won't make NCAAs you're just a dense human being

im not saying that oregon will be a podium team, but they will definitely be able to make nationals and easily place top 15 maybe even top 10

Oregon ONLY has 3 runners on their team who either

ran in 2009 XC NATs

or

ran in 2010 XC NATs

or

have a top 95 time in 5K for 2010 Outdoor

or

have a top 95 time in 5K for 2011 Outdoor

or

have a top 95 time in 10K for 2010 Outdoor

or

have a top 95 time in 10K for 2011 Outdoor

They Are:

SR Luke Puskedra (3rd in 2010 XC)

SO Parker Stinson (121st in 2010 XC)

SR Chris Kwiatkowski (89th 10K 2011 Outdoor)

Im sorry but looking at the top 15 teams depth this is not impressive at all!

Sure they have the best freshman class but their returning core is not strong compared to the competition.

ncaa predictioner wrote:

Oregon ONLY has 3 runners on their team who either

ran in 2009 XC NATs

or

ran in 2010 XC NATs

or

have a top 95 time in 5K for 2010 Outdoor

or

have a top 95 time in 5K for 2011 Outdoor

or

have a top 95 time in 10K for 2010 Outdoor

or

have a top 95 time in 10K for 2011 Outdoor

They Are:

SR Luke Puskedra (3rd in 2010 XC)

SO Parker Stinson (121st in 2010 XC)

SR Chris Kwiatkowski (89th 10K 2011 Outdoor)

Im sorry but looking at the top 15 teams depth this is not impressive at all!

Sure they have the best freshman class but their returning core is not strong compared to the competition.

And arizona has 2. Without a good supporting cast. You are a little hypocritical.

Sambu = Puskedra

Lalang much much much better than Stinson

Kwiatkowski 89th in 10K is nothing to be proud of for a number 3 runner

No one is saying Arizona is a top 15 team

Just trying to point out that Oregon is clearly overrated this season. And if puskedra is hurt and kwiatkowski is hurt then being ranked 4th in the country is clearly not justified.

i bett wrote:

Sambu = Puskedra

Lalang much much much better than Stinson

Kwiatkowski 89th in 10K is nothing to be proud of for a number 3 runner

No one is saying Arizona is a top 15 team

Just trying to point out that Oregon is clearly overrated this season. And if puskedra is hurt and kwiatkowski is hurt then being ranked 4th in the country is clearly not justified.

Oregon's womens team could beat Arizona without sambu and lalang. That being said I agree with you on Oregon being overrated.

NC state?

UNCG?

lannana has said upfront UO was not focused on XC this year...they are pointing toward oly trails in the spring...with Centro nation out who can blame them?

However the Ducks will not lose to Portland at regionals this year. Remember the Pilots got beat by Cal to place 4th as a team at regionals with Dunbar winning the "race" in 2010...what a joke...I think UP is more overrated at #10 than UO...

History wrote:

lannana has said upfront UO was not focused on XC this year...they are pointing toward oly trails in the spring...with Centro nation out who can blame them?

However the Ducks will not lose to Portland at regionals this year. Remember the Pilots got beat by Cal to place 4th as a team at regionals with Dunbar winning the "race" in 2010...what a joke...I think UP is more overrated at #10 than UO...

...And Portland finished 13th at Nationals, while Cal finished 31st. I don't really see your point. Are you predicting Oregon will at least get pushed in by Portland under-performing at Regionals?

i think you are all forgetting that verzbicas is winning nationals this year....

Here is a realistic scenario for Oregon at nationals (these are team points)

5 puskedra

25 verzbicas

60 Stinson

70 fleet ( he ran a 3:57 mile)

100 Kwiatkowski ( he ran 13:51 last year)

Total 260, that puts them at around 5th place

This is assuming nobody gets hurt cause they definitely are not a deep team. Also assuming nobody drops out or has a terrible race because this is probably the best case scenario for Oregon this year. I don't see any of the other freshman making an impact and them all redshirting cross country.

This team has no chance at winning the race, but they are still a very good team.

You guys are the dumbest humans ever.

Oregon will be a top 10 team.

Every college coach knows it.

Also your list is awful. Get some real insight.

Oregon is not too bad, but unless everything works right, I do not think that will be top 10 because there are too many good teams returning almost everyone (e.g., Indiana, Wisconsin, OSU, Oklahoma, ...)

old coach wrote:

You guys are the dumbest humans ever.

Oregon will be a top 10 team.

Every college coach knows it.

Also your list is awful. Get some real insight.