Maybe you need to read this... (see entire article)
http://tracksuperfan.com/some-intellectual-honesty-pleaseFirst of all, while it is true that Blake’s best 200 meter times have dropped as noted over these three seasons, one should look further back in time to get a better picture. Drawing conclusions from a data set of three will get you an F in any statistics class.
Here’s Blake’s progression over a five-year period. I have appended the equivalent points from the IAAF scoring table, and I’ll explain why in a bit.
Year Mark (Points)
2006 20.92 (1079)
2007 20.62 (1124)
2008 21.06 (1059)
2009 20.60 (1127)
2010 19.78 (1255)
2011 19.26 (1339)
To say that Blake made this improvement over just three years is a bit disingenuous. As you can see, four years ago he was essentially at the same level as two years ago, but took a step back in 2008 (when he suffered an injury). The guy was clearly a stud four years ago, when he was just 17 years old (the equivalent of a high school junior in the USA).
However, the real head-scratcher as to why Hersh used this particular data (and why Friday’s race result was so unexpected) is that Blake’s primary event has always been the 100 meters, and he rarely runs the 200. As a result, his best marks in that event are uneven (which was Hersh’ point in the first place).
So, let’s take a look at Blake’s yearly progress in both sprint events, taken side-by-side with IAAF points to compare the relative quality of the marks…
Year 100m (Points) 200m (Points)
2006 10.33 (1095) 20.92 (1079)
2007 10.11 (1169) 20.62 (1124)
2008 10.27 (1115) 21.06 (1059)
2009 9.93 (1231) 20.60 (1127)
2010 9.89 (1245) 19.78 (1255)
2011 9.82 (12.69) 19.26 (1339)
That massive improvement Hersh referred to between 2009 and 2010 now disappears, becoming less than 2% when comparing his best single mark across both events.
In 2007, Blake ran 10.11. Had he been a US high school student, he would have established a new national junior-class record by a full tenth of a second. In 2009, after his setback year of 2008, he became the youngest man in world history to break 10.00. He was the greatest teenager in the history of the event, much as Bolt was to the 200.
Now, you can accuse Blake of many things, not the least of which is that he failed a drug test for a stimulant in 2009 and received a three-month suspension. Others have said more (I will not). You can even point to Friday’s race as being too good to believe. But if you say he’s a Johnny-come-lately, you either didn’t do your homework, or you’re being intellectually dishonest. And Hersh knows how to fact-check.