S&P Sell Signal

Agreed. If the sell signal had been issued sometime in July before the big late summer collapse it would have seemed more prescient.

Blowrock is indeed an idiot.

Opposite George wrote:

I nominate this thread for the Letsrun worst financial prediction/advise thread of the year for 2011.

I didn't make any predictions. I posted that the system I use, one that has garnered compounded annual gains of 12% over 50 years, gave a sell signal. Had you followed my advice then you'd have lost $0.

As I stated earlier, the sell signal is wrong half the time. When it is wrong, the average rise in the stock market is 6%. When it is right, the average drop is 16%. Do you think it's good advice to tell someone they should lose 16% half the time in order to make 6% half the time?

For the record, the last time this system gave a sell signal was in January 2008. At the time the S&P was at its lowest point in a year. So of course according to you this would have been the wrong time to sell.

From there the S&P fell over 30% before there was a new buy signal. I even started a thread that was pretty much ignored except for a few people who said I didn't know what I was doing. At the time the S&P was near its highest point for that year (2009). I'm surprised you didn't post then to tell me I was wrong. The S&P rose over 20% between then and when I started this thread.

Since you're so convinced that I'm wrong, maybe you should live up to your name and do the opposite of what I advise. It should make you rich!

Painted Poster Pawned wrote:

Blowrock is indeed an idiot.

Agreed. Same as all the other lame brains who come on here with their brilliant short term market predictions.

Pay attention wrote: The Kniefling ratio for both Bloomberg and S&P is outrageously mediocre. 300 basis points is meaningless in these terms. Bottom line...it's a huge longshot. You can relax.

Color it any way you want, but you WERE warned not to sell.

Last post.

It's all fun for the Letsrun crowd.

Good luck in 2012.

Just busting your balls.

Most people don't have a clue and it's easy to point out when someone misses. I was just having fun at your expense.

Please have faith in America.

It's not really the political parties that have control of anything.

I think we will be OK.

Obviously, you will be OK, regardless.

Tooty toot toot wrote:

Painted Poster Pawned wrote:

Blowrock is indeed an idiot.

Agreed. Same as all the other lame brains who come on here with their brilliant short term market predictions.

Since the consensus here seems to be it was a horrible call, let me go out on a limb and point out that imo the fat lady has not sung... yet.

One interesting thing to note. Look at a 1-year chart of the S&P500. Notice that the S&P bounced off the 1256-1270 level several times before finally falling through it in August. It has now bumped up against that level from below several times but has not been able to break above it and stay above it. What was support now seems to be resistance.

I think Blowingrock's sell signal still has a good chance of giving him an opportunity to buy back in 2012, lower than when he sold in August. I think the 6-month, and 12-month anniversaries have a great potential to swing this thread 180 degrees.

The next few months should provide more certainty. I certainly think many folks are jumping the gun in declaring it a bad call. It certainly wasn't meant to be a short-term signal.

oh the irony wrote:

Since the consensus here seems to be it was a horrible call, let me go out on a limb and point out that imo the fat lady has not sung... yet.

The next few months should provide more certainty. I certainly think many folks are jumping the gun in declaring it a bad call. It certainly wasn't meant to be a short-term signal.

Have we had enough time to declare it a bad call yet?? ha ha ha,,,,,, yes we have.

But he never admits he is wrong. he will come back with: blah blah blah, sometimes it is wrong, sometimes right, but it is more often right then wrong, or at least sometimes, most of the time, well sometimes most of the time, historical, blah, blah......

What a moron.

Why can't he admit that he'd be better of flipping coins to make his picks?

Luvin it wrote:

Have we had enough time to declare it a bad call yet?? ha ha ha,,,,,, yes we have.

But he never admits he is wrong. he will come back with: blah blah blah, sometimes it is wrong, sometimes right, but it is more often right then wrong, or at least sometimes, most of the time, well sometimes most of the time, historical, blah, blah......

What a moron.

Why can't he admit that he'd be better of flipping coins to make his picks?

Sounds remarkably like that other well known LRC wannabe market predictor who can never admit he is wrong and doesn't understand simple math. Must be something about market predicting that attracts these types.

Glad I took BRM's recommendation to sell in August. Phew.

Pay attention.

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4393815

So your "sell" signal was wrong, but your "buy" signal was right. A 50-50 strategy is not worth much.

Your wife wrote:

So your "sell" signal was wrong, but your "buy" signal was right. A 50-50 strategy is not worth much.

Hey wifey - that would depend on comparing the cost of being wrong versus the benefit of being right. Small wrongs, and big rights still add up. D1ck.

Thanks, Dick, but it would obviously not be a viable strategy in the long run. Selling at the wrong time is never good.

Trend following works very well. There are numerous studies demonstrating its effectiveness.

The idea is to not get busted out. It takes a 100% rally to return from a 50% loss. If you avoid those drawdowns, and particpate in 80% of the uptrend, you will do very very well.

me two wrote:

Opposite George wrote:

So it's the one month anniversy of this thread.

And the Dow has not been lower since we were given the signal to sell.

Worth noting. Just make sure you check back again in 3 months, and 6 months, and possibly 12 months before you form a conclusion (as if you haven't obviously formed one).

6 month check up.

Let's see.

Dow was about 10,800 when the thread started and we were signaled to sell.

Today it clipped over 13,000

give the guy a break - he already said the signal turned bullish in January. so this thread is dead.

agip wrote:

give the guy a break - he already said the signal turned bullish in January. so this thread is dead.

Too little, too late.

agip wrote:

give the guy a break - he already said the signal turned bullish in January. so this thread is dead.

That's even worse.

He said to sell low and buy high.

(and I was asked to check back in six months. All I did was report the numbers)