GUH wrote:
Yeah, that's what I meant, only one ITT. TTT really does make it unfair for contenders who don't have the best teams;
Most people are arguing how important the team is on all stages. Granted, you can't win without a decent team, but if you look back, most of the time the BEST RIDER won.
One example where this wasn't the case was the Tour de France in 2006. T-Mobile let Oscar Pereiro go because they thought he was no tread. Otherwise, Kloeden would have won as Landis was DQ.
NJ Possible wrote:
There really is a missing element in this tour. I'm not saying it isn't exciting, but there are seemingly fewer holy sh*t moments than last year and certainly years past. Everyone looks very human this year.
yep. see my thread on "less drugs in le tour this year".
GUH wrote:
Yeah, that's what I meant, only one ITT. TTT really does make it unfair for contenders who don't have the best teams; they're fun to watch though.
I disagree. the TTT is really telling about how the individual racers will do. Look at evans, he has a really strong team around him this year which makes a huge difference in his chances. This was apparent in the TTT. The schlecks are the same, they have guys who are strong and experienced enough to keep their condentors out of trouble. Contator doesn't have as much support.
Radioshack's fatal flaw may have been having 4 guys to start with who could contend. this leaves 5 non-contendors to watch out for those 4. Evans has 8 guys watching out for him as does Schleck.
All of that being said, Voeckler's team has shown to be doing okay. i don't know much about those riders but he has been well protected. he was around 24 in 2004 when he held onto yellow. most teams left their youngsters at home because they can't hang on day after day. but voeckler is older and i don't think he is going to get poppped this time. he's had a great year and i can't see him losing over 2 mins in the TT if he doesn't have a 'spot of bother one day'.
i'd like to see him take it.
watchband wrote:
The schlecks are the same, they have guys who are strong and experienced enough to keep their condentors out of trouble.
The Schlecks have Jens Voigt who is probably the most badass rider in the tour. Despite that, they didn't make a decisive move and they'll regret this later.
Contador was in trouble but he is getting better and better and they won't be able to beat him in the Alpes.
Yes, it's always the best rider to win, but having a good team can be a huge advantage. Contador lost 25 seconds in that TTT, and his team isn't of much use in the mountains. I remember for Lance having eventual GC contenders and loyal domestiques sacrificing themselves for him; also look at Cavendish's disciplined leadout train. Having a team really helps.
GUH wrote:
also look at Cavendish's disciplined leadout train. Having a team really helps.
Of course it does. Nonetheless 9/10 times it's the best individual rider that wins.
And you can't compare GC with sprinters.
watchband wrote:
I disagree. the TTT is really telling about how the individual racers will do. Look at evans, he has a really strong team around him this year which makes a huge difference in his chances. This was apparent in the TTT. The schlecks are the same, they have guys who are strong and experienced enough to keep their condentors out of trouble. Contator doesn't have as much support.
Radioshack's fatal flaw may have been having 4 guys to start with who could contend. this leaves 5 non-contendors to watch out for those 4. Evans has 8 guys watching out for him as does Schleck.
All of that being said, Voeckler's team has shown to be doing okay. i don't know much about those riders but he has been well protected. he was around 24 in 2004 when he held onto yellow. most teams left their youngsters at home because they can't hang on day after day. but voeckler is older and i don't think he is going to get poppped this time. he's had a great year and i can't see him losing over 2 mins in the TT if he doesn't have a 'spot of bother one day'.
i'd like to see him take it.
Back in 2009, Team Astana had Contador, Armstrong, Kloden, and Leipheimer- four tour contenders- but still managed to supply the winner, 3rd place, and another top 10 placer. Team Radioshack's fatal flaw is not an abundance of contenders. Their fatal flaw is, believe it or not, terribly bad luck. They suffered terrible crashes in the first week, notably Chris Horner, and I think Leipheimer also had a crash or a mechanical problem. Kloden had one too, and now he's out. Even last year, Armstrong had the worst luck of any tour he's ridden. Is Radioshack just jinxed (in the the Tour de France, that is)?
I agree with what you said about Evans- he is in a really good position in the GC, and couple that with his team, and knowing that he's placed 2nd on the GC twice, he's a solid bet to win, though much can happen in the Alps. We'll see...
No I can't, but whether flat, uphill, or downhill, principles of road racing still apply.
GUH wrote:
Back in 2009, Team Astana had Contador, Armstrong, Kloden, and Leipheimer- four tour contenders- but still managed to supply the winner, 3rd place, and another top 10 placer. Team Radioshack's fatal flaw is not an abundance of contenders. Their fatal flaw is, believe it or not, terribly bad luck.
Agree about some bad luck, but did you see Chris Horner winning the TdF? Anyway, hopefully Evans can keep riding well.
watchband wrote:
yep. see my thread on "less drugs in le tour this year".
That's true. I read some interesting articles on the times they're riding this year and last vs. historically on some of these climbs. Almost all 2-4 minutes slower than the Lance era, with less wattage than at any point in the past 15 years. Fewer dopers/less doping per rider means more people look human. Look at how competitive Tommy D has been, that's an adamantly clean team. In past years he would've been out of the top 20, easily.
Def think Cadal Evans this year. Unless he dies this week really bad! Voeckler will lose it in the alps maybe first day! he's been great but must be riding on fumes now!
NJ Possible wrote:
GUH wrote:Back in 2009, Team Astana had Contador, Armstrong, Kloden, and Leipheimer- four tour contenders- but still managed to supply the winner, 3rd place, and another top 10 placer. Team Radioshack's fatal flaw is not an abundance of contenders. Their fatal flaw is, believe it or not, terribly bad luck.
Agree about some bad luck, but did you see Chris Horner winning the TdF? Anyway, hopefully Evans can keep riding well.
Not really, but he did win the Tour of California and that suffices as a win big enough to at least be considered for the overall prize. Big considerations are given to those who have won races like the Tour of California, the Dauphine Libere, Giro D'Italia, Paris-Nice, Tour de Suisse, etc...
I honestly don't understand the Schlecks...they should have hammered it right from the Pyrenees to try to crack Evans (and to a lesser extent Voeckler). They know they will get hammered on the Time Trial!
Its like Hall or Ritzenheim happily welcoming a tactical 10.000 against Bernard Lagat.
Logic? wrote:
I honestly don't understand the Schlecks...they should have hammered it right from the Pyrenees to try to crack Evans (and to a lesser extent Voeckler). They know they will get hammered on the Time Trial!
Its like Hall or Ritzenheim happily welcoming a tactical 10.000 against Bernard Lagat.
Oh I think they did try... it's just they either didn't try hard enough or just that they simply didn't get enough time as each of their attacks were neutralized. Frank launched three on Luz Ardiden that may have succeeded in putting Contador in difficulty, plus 20 seconds on the other contenders, but he's going to have to put way more than 20 seconds if he wants to win this tour. He lost a podium position in two tours a la final time trial.
Andy did something similar on the Plateau de Bei, but gained only two seconds. If they don't hammer those Alps, it's game over for them.
If I were one of them, I would seriously put considerations in vastly improving their time trialing... think of how much better their careers would have been.
Logic? wrote:
I honestly don't understand the Schlecks...they should have hammered it right from the Pyrenees to try to crack Evans (and to a lesser extent Voeckler). They know they will get hammered on the Time Trial!
Its like Hall or Ritzenheim happily welcoming a tactical 10.000 against Bernard Lagat.
The Schlecks (or more specifically: Andy) will regret not having attacked. Huge mistake.
As to "this tour is cleaner" - IDK, obviously it's become more difficult and EPO or CERA is pretty much out of the picture since they're testing for it (other than IAAF, which doesn't!). Still think they do it, but less.
L'alpes D'huez (spell?) is this week, they register times from bottom to top. No one will ever break Pantani's record again. He took that into his grave.
I agree that Voeckler has to say he will crack in order to let the other GC guys forget about him. And I also agree that the Schlecks fvcked up at Plateau de Beille. If only Vinokourov was still in it. He always makes things interesting.
Nutella1 wrote:
The Schlecks (or more specifically: Andy) will regret not having attacked. Huge mistake.
Oh wow. I didn't expect it to happen today already. But looks like Andys chances got a lot smaller today. Right now my money is on AC and Evans.
I disagree. I think this is one of the best tours in recent memory. Great sprinting from Cav, good number of breakaways, and battling from the GC guys. Still probably 5 guys or so who could win. And crashes. Hate to see it, but still exciting sometimes. If this is post mass-doping, I'm down.
We're all spoiled from Lance's dominance 1999-2005 and Contador's comparable 2007-2010 (with a year off in 2008). And Landis's ride in 2006 which for my money was the best of them all when you consider what a circus that whole tour was.
They just showed that Voeckler has won two Tour stages in his career. Even in the unlikely even that he can somehow hang on for the GC win, I still don't see him winning any more stages. I'm assuming this is a record for least career TDF stage wins for a GC champ. Sastre (2008 champ) has won 3 stages.
No, I believe Gary Imlach said a few years ago that there was a Tour de France winner who never won a stage in his career.
I think Cadel Evans has only one TDF stage to his credit in all the years he's ridden it... and it came in this tour.