2000 Meters: Rupp or Centro?

Mr Vent - can you give us your best estimate of a full Rupp line from 400m thru marathon above a line with his actual PRs at those distances and a bit of commentary on what takes you from the actuals to the estimates?

It seems like you must be imputing some VERY fast 5000m, 10000m, 1/2 marathon times for the lad based on fitness/speed he's shown this season rather than on actual performances.

In the lesser of two evils I pick alan webb

If they raced today I would bet the farm on centro. If you put centro in the 5k final last week I would take centro over rupp. Rupp's current 5k best of 13:07 is not enough to beat centro right now. I don't think centro can run 13:00, but I don't see rupp running that either. I would take centro in any race 5k and down at the moment. Not forever, but today.

Rodeo wrote:

If they raced today I would bet the farm on centro. If you put centro in the 5k final last week I would take centro over rupp. Rupp's current 5k best of 13:07 is not enough to beat centro right now. I don't think centro can run 13:00, but I don't see rupp running that either. I would take centro in any race 5k and down at the moment. Not forever, but today.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that Centro is currently able to run under 13:10. This is extremely unlikely. I am not sure he is currently able to run faster than 13:25 or so.

Rodeo wrote:

If they raced today I would bet the farm on centro. If you put centro in the 5k final last week I would take centro over rupp. Rupp's current 5k best of 13:07 is not enough to beat centro right now. I don't think centro can run 13:00, but I don't see rupp running that either. I would take centro in any race 5k and down at the moment. Not forever, but today.

More rubbish going from one extreme to the other

Rupp wins long distance

Centro Wins middle distance

It's fairly straight forward

ukathleticscoach wrote:

You are up early

Back to reality:

http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=0/sex=M/all=y/legal=A/disc=3000/detail.html

So Rupp is going to run 3,000m within 1 second of KB & Geb!

Why are you so ridiculously, stubbornly retarded about this? We get it, you don't agree with him. If you don't want to speculate, why do you keep forcing yourself into speculative discussions?

Grammar Gestapo wrote:

[quote]ukathleticscoach wrote:

You are up early

Back to reality:

http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=0/sex=M/all=y/legal=A/disc=3000/detail.html

So Rupp is going to run 3,000m within 1 second of KB & Geb!

Why are you so ridiculously, stubbornly retarded about this? We get it, you don't agree with him. If you don't want to speculate, why do you keep forcing yourself into speculative discussions?[/quote

I stick to the facts, only one person is idiotically speculating that Rupp can run within 1 second of the 2 best ever distance runners in the world

everyone here is too excited over rupp and centro. centro got into a perfect race and powered a great last lap at world's, and rupp might be top 20 in the world right now over some sort of distance, but has otherwise only proved himself over collegiate athletes and most current americans. don't get me wrong, i am ecstatic over centro's performance. he's young and smart and ready to do cool things, but would not be a factor in an international time trial-type race.

they'd both run slower than you'd think, as they do every single time. they wouldn't come within 12 seconds of el g's 2k record and no one outside of oregon or letsrun (is there a difference?) would give a damn.

besides, german fernandez would beat both of them anyway, obviously ;)

mwahahaha

I don't think so. Centro was an excellent 2miler in high school running 8:40. Are you telling me that in that in the worlds final he couldn't have run 1400 more meters on that pace and then finished well? I have to believe he could have. He can't withstand a fast early pace, but in that race he rocks galen.

Rodeo wrote:

I don't think so. Centro was an excellent 2miler in high school running 8:40. Are you telling me that in that in the worlds final he couldn't have run 1400 more meters on that pace and then finished well? I have to believe he could have. He can't withstand a fast early pace, but in that race he rocks galen.

You realize you're describing roughly a 7:30 3000m, right?

Oh never mind, I just figured out what you were trying to say.

You're still wrong.

ukathleticscoach wrote:

You are up early

Back to reality:

http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/toplists/inout=o/age=n/season=0/sex=M/all=y/legal=A/disc=3000/detail.html

So Rupp is going to run 3,000m within 1 second of KB & Geb!

hey UKC, how's things?

Battling with the "vent", eh? Nothing good can come of that, though occasionally one can get their yucks by pushing his buttons. So kudos to you for not blowing your head off when trying to "debate" him, because that is what I usually want to do.

I of course agree with you 100%. On the other hand, if vent's point is:

IF..... Rupp keeps improving more than anyone imagines right now, and...

IF ..... he somehow turns out to be more of a 3k/5k type guy than anyone imagined, and...

IF..... Salazar injects him with some of his personal stash of Alberto 1982 blood that he was storing in a freezer all of these years, and....

IF.....the wind changes direction every 1/2 lap to give the runners a tailwind the whole way, and...

IF.... the race is run on the track in China where all those women's "WR's" were set....

Then sure, I too believe that he will run 7:26 someday. But that's a lot of "if's."

Again, let's look at Geb in comparison to Rupp. Even Vent's own stats/opinions about Geb make the idea of Rupp running 7:26 insane. Geb ran 3:31 indoors. Vent himself says this means he was probably capable of 3:29 outdoors. So here we have a guy with likely 3:29 and definitely 12:37 ability, and despite time and time again taking shots the 3k and 2mile records, he continually ran 7:25 and 8:01, which converts roughly to, you guessed it, 7:25. So I don't buy that it was bad pacing, or bad luck, or not enough focus. The guy was a WR-chasing psycho, and he couldn't break 7:25 or 7:25 equivalent, and he took MANY attempts.

And now we are to think that a guy who hasn't broken 13:00, and who likely couldn't sniff 3:33 even if he was being pulled by a rope is gonna run 1 second slower than Geb?

Sure, Yenew has run 7:27 twice without spectacular performances in other distances. But this is a guy that Renato thinks can beat Bekele's 5k WR (!) in 2 years if he gets extremely focused. And I am pretty damn sure no one believes Rupp has THAT kind of talent.

Kennedy ran 7:30 and it was a great race for him. Rupp has not yet shown that he is better than Kennedy. Therefore, there is no reason to think Rupp can run under 7:30 at this point in time, let alone run 7:26.

Surely Geb and Bekele are not FIVE seconds slower than Komen at 3k. That just doesnt add up does it?

Ventolin didn't say that Rupp could run within two seconds of Geb and Bekele. UKA said that. Ventolin said that Rupp could run 7:26.

Yeah? No?

Centro easily hands down....way better finishing speed....2k plays into Centro's game not Rupp's....

tough stuff wrote:

Surely Geb and Bekele are not FIVE seconds slower than Komen at 3k. That just doesnt add up does it?

Ventolin didn't say that Rupp could run within two seconds of Geb and Bekele. UKA said that. Ventolin said that Rupp could run 7:26.

Yeah? No?

Seriously . . . 12:37 is worth 7:21 according to the IAAF tables . . . I think Bekele (and Geb, considering he had better 1500 speed) could have run 7:21 or 22. They didn't, and no one is arguing that, but it is reasonable to speculate that they were capable.

Given that Bob Kennedy ran 7:30, and Rupp appears to have better speed, I could imagine that if Rupp ever got himself in sub 13 shape, he could manage a 7:27/28 in a perfect race. Maybe not 7:26, but in that ballpark.

No one is claiming that Rupp is in the same league as Bekele and Geb. You guys are just in such a hurry to jump all over Ventolin that you will look for any reason to ridicule his speculations, no matter what they are. Get over it.

Sir Lance-alot wrote:Again, let's look at Geb in comparison to Rupp. Even Vent's own stats/opinions about Geb make the idea of Rupp running 7:26 insane. Geb ran 3:31 indoors. Vent himself says this means he was probably capable of 3:29 outdoors. So here we have a guy with likely 3:29 and definitely 12:37 ability, and despite time and time again taking shots the 3k and 2mile records, he continually ran 7:25 and 8:01, which converts roughly to, you guessed it, 7:25. So I don't buy that it was bad pacing, or bad luck, or not enough focus. The guy was a WR-chasing psycho, and he couldn't break 7:25 or 7:25 equivalent, and he took MANY attempts

spoken like a guy who never saw geb's attempts at 3k in late -'90s

you need to know only 1 thing, that to anyone with a brain woud explain why he didn't get anywhere close to 7'20

komen 7'20.67 off 4'53.4

haile 7'25.09 off 4'56.43

haile 7'25.54 off 4'59.7 !!!

haile 7'26.02 off 4'56.1

haile 7'26.03 off 4'57.8

he never got a pacer to get him thru the 2k in required 4'53/4'54 in any attempt & by then he knew the wr was impossible & he didn't kill himself in last km as a result

the 7'25.54 off 4'59.7 ( i don't know why he tried so hard in this one when this was about as slow a split as feasible ) shows what he was capable of in a last km if fully motivated - what he mighta put in if he'd got a pacer to drag him thru in 4'53/4'54

if you want some idea of his potential, look at his 7'26.15i

if use use a conversion of say : 3'31i being worth 3'30 or 3'29 outdoors, then

7'26.15i is maybe

7'26.15 * ( 3'30/3'31 ) = 7'24.0

or

7'26.15 * ( 3'29/3'31 ) = 7'21.9

curious bystander wrote:Mr Vent - can you give us your best estimate of a full Rupp line from 400m thru marathon above a line with his actual PRs at those distances and a bit of commentary on what takes you from the actuals to the estimates?

It seems like you must be imputing some VERY fast 5000m, 10000m, 1/2 marathon times for the lad based on fitness/speed he's shown this season rather than on actual performances.

he ran 1'49.8i coupla years ago & with his improved endurance since, i'd think he'd be quicker

using that as a start & salazar's comments at eugene, i'm going with :

51.5 / 1'48.5 -> 3'32.8 , 4'49.5 , 7'26.2 , 12'49.1 , 26'46.8

posters may scoff, but i believe he is capable of these

here is a comparator : komen in '96 rieti ( i reckon he was quicker 1500 guy in '97 - different line of fit )

50.5 / 1'46.6 -> 3'29.4 , 4'45.1 , 7'19.8 , 12'38.8 , 26'27.6

'hey UKC, how's things?'

Great and you, are you coming to the Olympics next year?

Doing coaching with new club at moment, some promising runners including one who prefers football but is really fast trying to pursuade him to get in some track races bit late for this year though

I'm actaully a big Rupp fan he's got a really relaxed style at speed like the Kenyans. He can do well in London

51.5 for Rupp. You are an IDIOT!!!! much faster. you have to take into consideration training for that event