*Serious* USA champs 1500 discussion

Wheating, Lomong, and Manzano are the class of the field. Their pr's are significantly faster than the rest of the field, and they've made U.S. teams before. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt that they are still rounding into shape/working out the kinks. They are the favorites.

After that - in my eyes Centrowitz's pr of 3:36.92, in a race that he won, is superior to Ulrey's pr of 3:35.23 where he finished 12th. There is also the fact that Centro just beat Ulrey pretty handily. So Centro > Ulrey.

As for Brown. Hmmm. His 3:51.45 mile converts to 3:34.3, which is significantly faster than Centrol, but like Ulrey's pr, Brown was never in this race. He came in 9th. This one is a gut call, but I'm picking Centro > Brown too. I just think Centro is NCAA sharp, he won easily. A last 800 of 1:51 should never look that easy. Brown has been racing out of his mind since indoors. At some point this year he will end up running on fumes. I think the dream season ends. Doesn't mean he can't come back stronger next year after his experience this year.

The only person I feel confident about making top 3 is Wheating.

I am going to go ahead and give him the win.

Manzano has made top 3 here for the past 5 years in a row so he has great experience at this event. He has shown enough this year to see that he is not out of shape. He may have been rounding into very good form the last 4 weeks and we may just not know because he has no results. DNFing that 800 at Pre gives no clue. The prelim may be all he needs to get race sharp for the final. Or it may be the year he falls back.

Lomong has also made top 3 the last 3 years in a row and seems well suited for this race.

Can Brown keep it going considering he ran that 3:35 more than two months ago and that 3:51 three weeks ago?

We know he is fit.

Torrence hit the standard last year and his races seem to have been progressing and pointing towards this race. Ran 1:45.4 this year.

Centro looked great at NCAA's.

I don't see anyone taking this race out that is favored so who knows what the 800m split will be.

Wheating and Manzano both clicked 1:44 for the 800 last year so those gears are good to have.

Wheating will win.

Torrence will make top 3.

Manzano will make top 3 or bottom 3.

Lomong will be in the top 4 (maybe 2nd) which puts him in a spot to make Worlds.

A top 4 spot may go a number of people but I will say Brown puts a throat slit on Centro adn keeps the pros on top.

So Lagat has entered, any chance he runs???

Hadn't even thought of Lagat since he said earlier in the season that he would focus on the 5000.

The 15 prelim is Thursday

The 5000 which is a final only is on Friday

The 15 finals are on Saturday

Maybe he will do both again if he is feeling well. Or run the 1500 final if something goes wrong with the 5000.

Gotta put him top three if he lines up.

if the pace is honest:

1) Wheating

2) Brown

3) Centro

4) Torrence

In a kicker's race:

1) Wheating

2) Centro

3) Manzano

1. Wheating

2. Centro

3. Ulrey

4. Brown

5. Batty

6. Lomong

7. Manzano

8. Who cares

Brown is over the hump this year.

Keep in mind Manzano ran 4:06 for DFL at Pre last year, and then went on to have a great season. He's a smart runner and he has always showed up when it counts. With his record in championships, his PR, the form he was in at the end of last season, I'm considering him a favorite to make the team.

Brown's 3:51 is a fast time. The fact that he was off the back of the race the whole time makes me think he's tough and not going to quit if the chips get down. He's definitely hungry and is having a big year. I'll give him the nod to make the team.

Wheating hasn't looked great yet this year, but with Olympic experience, a 3:30 pr, and the home crowd, how can he not have as good a shot as anyone?

Lomong, like Manzano also can't be counted out. He's proven himself ready to step up when it counts and he's made this team multiple times. He didn't look great at Pre, but he still ran 3:53 (same time as last year) and looked a little bit stronger at Reebok.

Lagat has said he's only running the 5000, but he is declared in the 1500. Can someone clarify the rules for me? If he declares in 2 events does he have to compete in both or can he scratch from one at the last minute.

Assuming Lagat doesn't run, I pick:

1. Wheating

2. Brown

3. Manzano

Assuming Lagat does run:

1. Lagat

2. Wheating

3. Manzano

Lagat wins it in LunarGlide 2's.....

Wheating next.

Torrence for third.

Like everyone else, it's very hard for me to pick against Leo not making the team. Doesn't he always come through when it counts? Doesn't he always come back after a bad result? Wasn't he #6 in the world last year?

That being said, Leo has not had a single good race this season. NOT ONE. Something isn't right.

If he wins, or makes the team, I won't be shocked. He is as accomplished and tough as they come. On the other hand, of all the guys mentioned as potential top 3's I also think he's the most likely to not make the final.

1. Brown

2. Wheating

3. Torrence (or Lamong or Centro)

Wheating and Lomong will make the team with centro 3rd. Manzano seems like he is battling injury or something but does not look right. If he is healthy though then he battles closely and may beat centro for the 3rd spot.

You guys need to remember that lomong has not looked good going into a us championship since college. He is a two time US champion, world champs finalist and has run 3:32. There is no way he finishes outside of the top 3. If I thought manzano was healthy then I would say the same for him.

Brown, Torrence, Wheating, and Centrowitz are the ones that have been winning lately. They're the four that are on fire right now.

Wheating has the fastest PR's and is racing well so he should be the favorite.

Lomong isn't running terrible and he is the veteran. He has a good shot to make the team.

Manzano is having an Alan Webb 2008 type of season (maybe worse). He probably won't make it but he might bc he is Manzano.

Torrence trains with Manzano and just beat the Olympic silver medalist. He likely will make the team.

Brown trains with Wheating and has been on far the whole season. He will likely make the team if he isn't a headcase on race day.

Centrowitz is good. Ulrey is good. Ulrey has more experience at a higher level and he made it through rounds of 2009 WC. Centrowitz has yet to prove himself against the big boys. Both have good chances to make the team. Keep in mind Centro has the same coach as Wheating and Brown (Oregon sweep?).

Everybody else is great but these 7 are going to be tough to beat.

Wheating wins. Fact.

Race is for 2-3, manzano is out of shape, lomong will fade in last 200, centro will fall with the rest of the college kids through prelims, brown and torrence will out kick the field for the last 2 spots.

Torrence, Manzano and Miller (the true darkhorse but who is in great shape)

Nobody has mentioned Will Leer, but I (like many) think it will be a kicker's race. 2010 USAs Leer had as impressive a kick as anyone else in the race to take 3rd from the back of the pack (Manzano and Lomong kicking from the front in better position). Torrence definitely looks stronger and more consistent lately (and with an impressive win), but if it's a 3:39 race off a 3:44 pace, I don't know if that's going to matter for him. Last year the last lap was 52.X for the top 3, and Torrence ended up just short.

Anyway, who knows, but I'll say:

Wheating

Brown

Leer

Torrence

Lomong

I don't think the college guys are going to get it done. They've looked sharper recently because they were getting ready for NCAAs. NCAAs are over, USAs is what everybody else is trying to be sharp for, and are probably stronger and better prepped for rounds.

Lagat is declared, but I don't see him racing it. Doesn't seem to fit with anything he's said all year.

rushhlimbaugh wrote:

manzano is out of shape,

If you think running a recent 3:38.26 plus a 3:55.2 split at Penn is out of shape then, yes Manzano is out of shape.

But I think it shows pretty solid fitness while the 9th place finish with that 3:38 shows he wasn't sharp.

I assume in the last month since he has posted a result he has backed off any hard training and geared towards being ready for this meet. I don't know what the DNF at the 800 means.

But if I started with 3:38 fitness and had a month to sharpen and improve, I would feel good about my chances. Especially if I had a 3:32 PR.

All that said, he threw out a 3:33 last year before USATF so he felt good going in.

He is going to have to use the prelim to get race sharp.

I'd feel better if he had a nice 800 result at Pre.

Look at these prelims. Some big names listed as favorites in earlier posts won't make the final. If history is any indication, two of these three heats will have only three qualifiers, while a third heat (probably the last, but only if they're aware), will have six qualifiers (3Qs+3qs). Before you unleash your kick in the finals, you'd better be race smartly in the prelims...

Event 9 Men 1500 Meter Run Senior/Open

===============================================

Preliminaries: 12 Advance top 3 plus next 3 fastest to final

Name Year Team

===============================================

Heat 1 Prelims

1 Andrew Wheating Oregon TC El

2 Jordan McNamara Oregon TC El

3 Miles Batty B Y U

4 AJ Acosta Oregon

5 Brandon Rooney unattached

6 Tony Jordanek unattached

7 Nicholas Symmonds Oregon TC El

8 Michael Hammond Va Tech

9 Evan Jager Oregon TC El

10 Ryan McNiff Adams State

11 Patrick Todd Virginia

12

Heat 2 Prelims

1 Matthew Elliott Brooks

2 Erik Van Ingen Binghamton

3 Matthew Centrowitz Oregon

4 Leonel Manzano Nike

5 Kyle Miller Nike

6 John Jefferson Brooks

7 Rob Finnerty Wisconsin

8 David Torrence Nike

9 Jack Bolas New Balance

10 Liam Boylan-Pett NJ-NY Track

11 Craig Miller New Balance

12 Dorian Ulrey Arkansas

Heat 3 Prelims

1 Duncan Phillips Arkansas

2 Kevin Ondrasek unattached

3 Benjamin Blankenship Minnesota

4 Russell Brown Oregon TC El

5 Rob Myers Saucony

6 Lopez Lomong Nike

7 Bernard Lagat Nike

8 Stephen Pifer Oregon TC El

9 Macklin Chaffee Ragged Mount

10 Tommy Schmitz Wisconsin Ru

11 Patrick Casey Montana St.

12 William Leer Nike

THANK YOULeer isn't as high of a profile for these guys but what a BAMF. he's always in it. Gaining experience. Good for at least fourth but I think he's finally got the foundation to make the break through

I mentioned Leer on page 1 but it got deleted cause I called him a BAMF! But I actually sort of wrote it out....

Glad to see him getting love. I don't think he'll win, or even get 2nd, but I'm hoping he sneaks in at 3rd!

right. we have tons of these young guys: when they're young, they live in kenya, when they're too old, they come here.

Correct me if im wrong wrote:

I wish Lagat was in the race. Why don't we have any young guys like him anymore?

Ummmm because when Lagat was young he was Kenyan...