(10) LV wants another notch on his belt, wants to go out in style, wants to be in that elite field of "high school sub-4 runners."
(9) Consequently, he won't stand for a tactical pace/race. He's willing and gutsy enough to take it out in 58-59 if no one else will.
(8) Oshier, I suspect, knows it's not in his own best interests to lead. I'm sure he's itching to run sub-4 and give LV a run for his money, but you can be sure he knows that LV is both shooting for AND capable of running sub-4, so he'll draft for as long as he can, hoping that LV fades or that he himself can muster a kick.
(7) Oshier's 4:02.5 mile (converted) is still a LONG way from sub-4. Once you get down to that level, those last few seconds are a bitch. And that, folks, is why only 4 high schoolers have ever broken 4:00. I say he comes up just short . . . like so many other very, very talented runners before him. (Though I'd LOVE to see him dip under.)
(6) Is Austin Mudd in this? If so, he's no less or more of a threat than Oshier. (Ditto for Orman.) With Mudd's 4:04.x mile (converted), he's still a long way from sub-4. It's one thing to run a 26-27 last 200 off what was essentially 4:09-ish mile pace until the last 200m, and it's another thing to do it off of 4:01-ish pace.
(5) LV's credentials are nearly impeccable. 2-time Nat'l Footlocker champ, double XC champ this year, triple winner at indoor Nats, Dream mile winner last year in 4:04, 4:03 mile indoors this year, 8:29 2-mile Nat. record. LV knows delivers under pressure, and it would be unwise to bet against him.
(4) LV is WAY ahead of where he was last year at this time or indoors. There's no reason to think he won't crack 4:00 unless he comes down with a bad cold or injury.
(3) His biggest threat is himself, not the other competitors. His loss in the 2-mile at last year's outdoor Nats was simply because he overshot. He got greedy for the 2-mile record and paid dearly, losing a huge lead. So if he guns for 3:55-ish, it could come back to bite him in the ass, in which case the likes of Oshier, Mudd and Chesereck will be there to Hoover him up.
(2) I'm hoping like hell that Cheserek or someone else will lead out in a fast 400 in 57-58, maybe even the first 800 in 1:58-59. That would be a gift to LV.
(1) Mr. Verzbicas for the win.
* An earlier poster said he thought LV would gun for the H.S. record! Are you kidding?! LV doesn't have a ice cube's chance in hell of beating 3:53 . . . and he knows it.