Official John Kellogg Is a Genius Thread (He Predicted The 2:03 on Boston)

Isn't the wind reading usually taken 10m above the ground? If that's the case maybe the wind at ground level is a little less, e.g. wind reading is 18 mph, at ground level it is ~14mph. I don't know if this is the case, but if it is then maybe we are overestimating the effect of today's tailwind. I know it certainly aided the runners, but it is difficult to pinpoint just how much.

Plus, the only accurate measure would be if you had an anemometer on the media truck, and tracked GPS location so that you could subtract the vehicles speed from the wind speed. Then you would know the total effect with some testing of Keyans in wind tunnels.

Since they were running through many an urban canyon, the wind could have been greater or less than the official measured value. But, when the WR and CR get slaughtered like that on a consistently slow course, you certainly must give attribution to an external influence.

+1

JoLoco wrote:

Plus, the only accurate measure would be if you had an anemometer on the media truck, and tracked GPS location so that you could subtract the vehicles speed from the wind speed. Then you would know the total effect with some testing of Keyans in wind tunnels.

Since they were running through many an urban canyon, the wind could have been greater or less than the official measured value. But, when the WR and CR get slaughtered like that on a consistently slow course, you certainly must give attribution to an external influence.

Great post.

An additional point regarding the extrapolation of sprint assist conversions to the marathon distance: the floating phase of locomotion dominates the sprints, whereas marathon runners spend more time on the ground. Tailwinds should be disproportionately beneficial during the floating phase.

Clearly the run was assisted, but extrapolating from a 100m wind assist is probably quite misleading for a number of reasons (particularly those already listed).

If you want to give huge props don't you know you have to title the thread "John MF Kellogg is a genius"??

haha clearly not a math major. good try though

rojo wrote:I remember back in college when Obadele Thompson ran 9.69 for 100m in a college meet at UTEP in 1996 back when the world record was 9.85.

No one in their right mind called it the greatest performance in history as the tail-wind was an ridiculous 5.7 mps (the time converts to 9.93 with no wind or 9.95 dependig on who you are talking to).

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Rojo, i know what you're saying, but you're wrong above. You can't convert his time to a .0w, and compare it to a 9.85 with a 1.2w. If you're going to do what you just did, you need to convert both times, or convert his to a 2.0w, as that's the highest allowed for records.

anti-Wejo wrote:

Hey, I'm no genius either.

Thank you for clarifying.

I think it's pretty amazing for someone to predict a time like that...I just read that article late last night and thought it was a good read especially after reading and following the results this morning.

Wejo forgot that for those of you who do not personally know John Kellogg it may not be clear that he is in fact a genius.

He is.

When he sees people running, without knowing what distance they're doing/have done, or looking at a watch, he'll say, "oh they're going -- pace" then when you time it to see if he's right, he is. Always.

Then he has the most amazing memory ever..

No wrote:And about JK, he is a freaking genius, hands down. Of course in hindsight his prediction seems obvious to you, but I don't thin ANYONE would have looked at weather.com, seen the weather forecast, and thought to themselves, wow they could run the world record tomorrow.

I definitely thought that. I'm not trying to brag on myself, at all. I don't think it's much of an extrapolation.

Now if the course record hadn't been smashed without a tailwind last year, I would not have predicted today's result at all.

But if Robert Cheruiyot the Lesser can run a 2:05:52 without a huge tailwind, it doesn't take a genius to surmise that a better field would produce incredible times with today's weather.

There was a thread on this very message board stating something like, "once in a lifetime conditions". Of course I expected some outrageous results.

And when athletes know the conditions are going to be fast, they tend to be a little more aggressive, and the positive feedback loop continues.

With no wind a runner is moving at about 12 mph, so there is some air resistance impeding motion. With a 20 mph tail wind, there is a constant back wind of about 8 mph, so there is a constant force pushing the runner the whole way.

JK stated that it would take pacemakers, the london field, and a time bonus to run that fast, showing a lack of confidence in the actual boston field's ability to achieve that kind of time.

Bingu wrote:

But if Robert Cheruiyot the Lesser can run a 2:05:52 without a huge tailwind, it doesn't take a genius to surmise that a better field would produce incredible times with today's weather.

He had a huge tailwind. sorry to burst your bubble.

So did I (actually 2:03 or 2:04), but the writing was on the wall as to possibilities; I made my forecast on Friday, I think.

anti-Wejo wrote:

Dude, calm down. Why would anyone be surprised to hear that a world best time was run on a downhill course with cool temps, a huge tailwind and a few of the greatest runners in the world at the starting line?

STOP SAYING DOWNHILL COURSE. STOP IT RIGHT NOW.

Do you think Boston was not downhill all these years? Where are all those amazing times from the last several decades?!? It is a SLOW course, not a fast one. This was 100% about the wind and 0% about a "downhill course".

S.T.O.P. S.A.Y.I.N.G D.O.W.N.H.I.L.L.

thanks

The wind was NOT constant:

http://www.letsrun.com/photos/2011/bostonmarathon/imagepages/image16.php

http://www.letsrun.com/photos/2011/bostonmarathon/imagepages/image38.php

When he watches them run can he tell you what their personal best is for 5K?

This was the first thing that came to my mind when I saw this thread and the quote on the home page...

"JK stated that it would take pacemakers, the london field, and a time bonus to run that fast, showing a lack of confidence in the actual boston field's ability to achieve that kind of time."

He did not predict the world's best time. The times were even faster than he thought possible. He was essentially too conservative in his prediction.

JK may be a genius, but not because of this. It's a typical human response to remember all the miraculous predictions and long odds that come true, but few remember all the times those same people are wrong and situations follow the rule rather than the exception.

+1

I think it's classic that wejo and rojo think this prediction was so amazingly fantastic when 3/4 ths of the prediction weren't even attributed to the field that boston had... london field, pacers, and a time bonus... ha...

If this prediction was so amazing to begin with, considering that it wasn't even made with regards to the actual Boston field, it makes Mutai's performance even more remarkable.

As for the tailwind,

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBOS/2011/4/18/DailyHistory.html

.

Wejo keeps saying how it was 20 and 30 mph... it had gusts that high, but for the most part was around 15. Is that a strong wind, yes, but there is no way to try and guage or convert what the actual time would have been in windless conditions...

Has anyone even remotely considered that the tailwind and the downhills combined could have had a negative affect, as now your running even harder going down hill...

I don't think it should count for a world record, but I think once in a while, special things happen, and instead of constantly finding ways to justify it and make sense of it or rationalize it, can't we just be stoked that people ran that fast?

What an awesome day, regardless of the "wind" debate and trying to make you're friends sound like their the Nostrodomous of running, when it's really no better than a VIPAM prediction.