Official John Kellogg Is a Genius Thread (He Predicted The 2:03 on Boston)

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  • No
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 1:55pm CDT
    re: perch
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    perch wrote:

    Strong field, last year Boston CR dropped from 2:07's to 2:05's skipping the 2:06's with an honest effort. Put in a big tail wind and IRC and guess another minute or so drop? Logical, not Genius. With the Pace Rabbit (Hall) even more ideal!

    My confusion is what this point to point course with huge tail wind does to comparison of courses? Is Boston now the official fastest course of the Majors when it used to be slowest?

    Is Hall really a 2:04 marathoner?

    Just don't know how to grasp today's Mother Nature assisted performances.

    Sure, Boston is the fastest course ... in PERFECT conditions. Take away that huge tailwind and it becomes a much more difficult course and a lot slower. So no, on the majority of days, it isn't the fastest course in the world.

    Ryan Hall is not a 2:04 marathoner, but he is clearly in kick ass shape and at least as good as he has been in the past so all the people who have been saying he's done and would DNF this race have clearly been proven wrong.

    And about JK, he is a freaking genius, hands down. Of course in hindsight his prediction seems obvious to you, but I don't thin ANYONE would have looked at weather.com, seen the weather forecast, and thought to themselves, wow they could run the world record tomorrow. You may think, great, ideal weather conditions, a nice tail wind, this is going to help it be a fast race. But no one would have even mentioned the possibility of a WORLD RECORD ON THE BOSTON course since it's traditionally slow. That kind of insight took something special, so stop picking apart his quote and give them man his props. He's definitely a hell of a lot smarter than any of you.
  • raw thang
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 2:02pm CDT
    re: malmo
    Forum Index

    Isn't the wind reading usually taken 10m above the ground? If that's the case maybe the wind at ground level is a little less, e.g. wind reading is 18 mph, at ground level it is ~14mph. I don't know if this is the case, but if it is then maybe we are overestimating the effect of today's tailwind. I know it certainly aided the runners, but it is difficult to pinpoint just how much.
  • JoLoco
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 2:19pm CDT
    re: raw thang
    Forum Index

    Plus, the only accurate measure would be if you had an anemometer on the media truck, and tracked GPS location so that you could subtract the vehicles speed from the wind speed. Then you would know the total effect with some testing of Keyans in wind tunnels.

    Since they were running through many an urban canyon, the wind could have been greater or less than the official measured value. But, when the WR and CR get slaughtered like that on a consistently slow course, you certainly must give attribution to an external influence.
  • Running Dan
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 3:00pm CDT
    re: BS
    Forum Index
    BS wrote:

    You are absolutly correct in that the wind certainly helped the runners. However, it is virtually impossible to say exactly how much. Vs. a 100m dash where the wind should help you the same amount the whole race, in a marathon the wind benefit should vary signficantly - not only in various places on the course but also by individual runner depending on where they were in the pack. Combine this with the fact there is always a huge variation in performances on a normal day (if there had been a head wind that slowed them down in the first half the winners time would not have been nearly as fast but I would bet the some runners would actually have run faster with a headwind as it would have made for more optimal pacing for them).

    All in all, you can only say it was a fantastic performance.

    +1
  • JLR
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 3:56pm CDT
    re: JoLoco
    Forum Index
    JoLoco wrote:

    Plus, the only accurate measure would be if you had an anemometer on the media truck, and tracked GPS location so that you could subtract the vehicles speed from the wind speed. Then you would know the total effect with some testing of Keyans in wind tunnels.

    Since they were running through many an urban canyon, the wind could have been greater or less than the official measured value. But, when the WR and CR get slaughtered like that on a consistently slow course, you certainly must give attribution to an external influence.

    Great post.

    An additional point regarding the extrapolation of sprint assist conversions to the marathon distance: the floating phase of locomotion dominates the sprints, whereas marathon runners spend more time on the ground. Tailwinds should be disproportionately beneficial during the floating phase.

    Clearly the run was assisted, but extrapolating from a 100m wind assist is probably quite misleading for a number of reasons (particularly those already listed).
  • Thread titler
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 5:04pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index

    If you want to give huge props don't you know you have to title the thread "John MF Kellogg is a genius"??
  • college1234
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 5:20pm CDT
    re: rojo
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    haha clearly not a math major. good try though
  • mrr82
    registered
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 5:29pm CDT
    re: rojo
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    rojo wrote:I remember back in college when Obadele Thompson ran 9.69 for 100m in a college meet at UTEP in 1996 back when the world record was 9.85.

    No one in their right mind called it the greatest performance in history as the tail-wind was an ridiculous 5.7 mps (the time converts to 9.93 with no wind or 9.95 dependig on who you are talking to).
    [/quote]

    Rojo, i know what you're saying, but you're wrong above. You can't convert his time to a .0w, and compare it to a 9.85 with a 1.2w. If you're going to do what you just did, you need to convert both times, or convert his to a 2.0w, as that's the highest allowed for records.
  • pro-Wejo
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 5:45pm CDT
    re: anti-Wejo
    Forum Index
    anti-Wejo wrote:
    Hey, I'm no genius either.

    Thank you for clarifying.

    I think it's pretty amazing for someone to predict a time like that...I just read that article late last night and thought it was a good read especially after reading and following the results this morning.
  • brian the messiah
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 5:45pm CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index

    Wejo forgot that for those of you who do not personally know John Kellogg it may not be clear that he is in fact a genius.

    He is.

    When he sees people running, without knowing what distance they're doing/have done, or looking at a watch, he'll say, "oh they're going -- pace" then when you time it to see if he's right, he is. Always.

    Then he has the most amazing memory ever..
  • Bingu
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 6:26pm CDT
    re: No
    Forum Index
    No wrote:And about JK, he is a freaking genius, hands down. Of course in hindsight his prediction seems obvious to you, but I don't thin ANYONE would have looked at weather.com, seen the weather forecast, and thought to themselves, wow they could run the world record tomorrow.

    I definitely thought that. I'm not trying to brag on myself, at all. I don't think it's much of an extrapolation.

    Now if the course record hadn't been smashed without a tailwind last year, I would not have predicted today's result at all.

    But if Robert Cheruiyot the Lesser can run a 2:05:52 without a huge tailwind, it doesn't take a genius to surmise that a better field would produce incredible times with today's weather.

    There was a thread on this very message board stating something like, "once in a lifetime conditions". Of course I expected some outrageous results.

    And when athletes know the conditions are going to be fast, they tend to be a little more aggressive, and the positive feedback loop continues.
  • old windy buy
    9 years ago 04/18/2011 8:32pm CDT
    re: Bingu
    Forum Index

    With no wind a runner is moving at about 12 mph, so there is some air resistance impeding motion. With a 20 mph tail wind, there is a constant back wind of about 8 mph, so there is a constant force pushing the runner the whole way.
  • durski
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 1:39am CDT
    re: old windy buy
    Forum Index

    JK stated that it would take pacemakers, the london field, and a time bonus to run that fast, showing a lack of confidence in the actual boston field's ability to achieve that kind of time.
  • bubble boy
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 2:14am CDT
    re: Bingu
    Forum Index
    Bingu wrote:

    But if Robert Cheruiyot the Lesser can run a 2:05:52 without a huge tailwind, it doesn't take a genius to surmise that a better field would produce incredible times with today's weather.

    He had a huge tailwind. sorry to burst your bubble.
  • 26mi235
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 2:40am CDT
    re: wejo
    Forum Index

    So did I (actually 2:03 or 2:04), but the writing was on the wall as to possibilities; I made my forecast on Friday, I think.
  • Anti-Anti-Wejo
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 8:47am CDT
    re: anti-Wejo
    Forum Index
    anti-Wejo wrote:

    Dude, calm down. Why would anyone be surprised to hear that a world best time was run on a downhill course with cool temps, a huge tailwind and a few of the greatest runners in the world at the starting line?

    STOP SAYING DOWNHILL COURSE. STOP IT RIGHT NOW.

    Do you think Boston was not downhill all these years? Where are all those amazing times from the last several decades?!? It is a SLOW course, not a fast one. This was 100% about the wind and 0% about a "downhill course".

    S.T.O.P. S.A.Y.I.N.G D.O.W.N.H.I.L.L.

    thanks
  • Crimea River
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 9:32am CDT
    re: old windy buy
    Forum Index

    The wind was NOT constant:

    http://www.letsrun.com/photos/2011/bostonmarathon/imagepages/image16.php

    http://www.letsrun.com/photos/2011/bostonmarathon/imagepages/image38.php
  • kickingman
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 10:01am CDT
    re: brian the messiah
    Forum Index

    When he watches them run can he tell you what their personal best is for 5K?
  • wombat
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 12:27pm CDT
    re: kickingman
    Forum Index

    This was the first thing that came to my mind when I saw this thread and the quote on the home page...

    "JK stated that it would take pacemakers, the london field, and a time bonus to run that fast, showing a lack of confidence in the actual boston field's ability to achieve that kind of time."

    He did not predict the world's best time. The times were even faster than he thought possible. He was essentially too conservative in his prediction.

    JK may be a genius, but not because of this. It's a typical human response to remember all the miraculous predictions and long odds that come true, but few remember all the times those same people are wrong and situations follow the rule rather than the exception.
  • Giddy
    registered
    9 years ago 04/20/2011 1:52pm CDT
    re: wombat
    Forum Index

    +1

    I think it's classic that wejo and rojo think this prediction was so amazingly fantastic when 3/4 ths of the prediction weren't even attributed to the field that boston had... london field, pacers, and a time bonus... ha...

    If this prediction was so amazing to begin with, considering that it wasn't even made with regards to the actual Boston field, it makes Mutai's performance even more remarkable.

    As for the tailwind, http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBOS/2011/4/18/DailyHistory.html.

    Wejo keeps saying how it was 20 and 30 mph... it had gusts that high, but for the most part was around 15. Is that a strong wind, yes, but there is no way to try and guage or convert what the actual time would have been in windless conditions...

    Has anyone even remotely considered that the tailwind and the downhills combined could have had a negative affect, as now your running even harder going down hill...

    I don't think it should count for a world record, but I think once in a while, special things happen, and instead of constantly finding ways to justify it and make sense of it or rationalize it, can't we just be stoked that people ran that fast?

    What an awesome day, regardless of the "wind" debate and trying to make you're friends sound like their the Nostrodomous of running, when it's really no better than a VIPAM prediction.
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